Federer’s best last chance in Paris?

The 2013 French Open could very well be Roger Federer’s best last chance in Paris.

Not his last chance, mind. As long as Federer plays, he is in with a chance. Anything could happen in tennis, check 2009 Roland Garros for proof. But his best last chance, most likely.

The draw was kind to Federer. Has never been kinder in fact, the last few years. Since Melbourne 2010, Federer has made three major finals from thirteen played, winning two. Twice Berdych has gotten the better of him in the quarters, Soderling and Tsonga at the same stage and one time apiece. In the semis, Murray and Nadal have beaten him once. The other four times? One man has overcome him: Novak Djokovic. In 2010 and 11 in New York, in Australia in 2011, and in Paris last year.

This year, Soderling and Murray are not in the year. Neither is Del Potro who pushed Federer to five here in last year’s quarters. Tsonga and Berdych are there, though. Federer would meet them in the quarters and the semi-finals respectively. But both players, susceptible to early defeats, have to get there first. Were to reach their seeded positions though, Federer would still be the favorite to beat them. Toughened up by match practice in Madrid and Rome plus four or five set matches in Paris, Federer’s superior clay court prowess and pedigree should be enough to see him through. The biggest danger would of course be Berdych who fresh of a win over Djokovic in Rome is capable of great play on the clay. Still, Federer is Federer, a finalist here as recently as 2011 and the second best clay courter of the last decade. Federer also knows better than anyone that time is running out, that semi-finals of slams, as he has learned the last few seasons are rarer than they once were and finals even more so. He will also be mighty pleased that Nadal and Djokovic are nowhere to be seen at this stage.

For the tennis Gods were certainly kind to their favorite son, Nadal and Djokovic being placed at the opposite end of the draw. If they meet in the semi-finals, it will be most hotly awaited last four contest seen at a Major for many a year. Most likely they will meet, though Novak has the possible pertinent question of Grigor Dimitrov to answer in the third round. He should answer it quite confidently though. Five sets in a Major and three sets in a Master’s are a world apart and Djokovic is better than anyone at surviving the liveliest of threats in the early rounds of a Major. Djokovic should do just that to take his place in the last four against Nadal. Only one year ago these two played their fourth consecutive Major final. And Djokovic has the bragging rights of beating Nadal three times on clay, in each of the Masters 1000 finals, and being the player to put an end to Nadal’s eight year win streak in Monte Carlo. While beating Nadal in five sets in Paris proved beyond Djokovic last year, that Monte Carlo win coupled with Nadal not having played a Major since Wimbledon last year suggests this is the World number one’s best chance to put Nadal away and get another chance to complete the career Grand Slam.

Federer will certainly be hoping it is Djokovic who makes it out of that brutal semi, preferably in five long sets and the second scheduled match. Against Novak he has a chance. Their 2011 semi here when Federer beat a red hot Djokovic will still be fresh in his memory. And though Federer suffered a lackluster defeat to Novak here last year, the Swiss has had his much needed rest and if he is going to produce his best tennis it is going to be in the finals.

If Nadal is on the other side of the court, then Federer’s chances are as bad as thetennisreview’s. Anyone who watched the Rome final last week will know what to expect. But, and this is as big a but, this is the year when Nadal’s chances of making the final are lesser than they have ever been and Federer’s higher. And if Nadal is knocked out by Djokovic, Federer has what will be his best last chance to win in Paris, a second title that will be cheered by the Federer-loving Parisians and which may prove to be the final crowning moment of arguably the greatest career in tennis history.