Roger Federer has a chance to get back up to No.2 in the ATP Rankings after Rafael Nadal’s withdrawal from the U.S Open Series Events in Toronto and Cincinnati. The last time Federer was at No.2 in the ATP Rankings was May 6th 2013.
Right now, Nadal occupies the second place on the ATP Rankings with 12670 points while Federer trails by 6060 points at No.3 with 6070 points. That gap will definitely close once Nadal’s points for the ATP 1000 events in Canada and Cincinnati drop of his ranking total. The Spaniard was the champion in both events last year, winning a total of 2000 points for his efforts. Once those points drop off, Nadal will have 10670 points, and some of the work will have been done for Federer.
The rest will be up to him, though. One thing in his favor is a limited number of points to defend this U.S Open Series. Federer only competed in Cincinnati last year where he was beaten by Nadal in the quarter-finals, leaving him only 180 points to defend.
That should not be too much of a task for the Swiss. Next week he will take part in the Rogers Cup in Toronto where he is the second seed and has received a favorable draw into the last sixteen where he would face dangerous 15th seed Marin Cilic. But while Cilic is a threat, Federer leads him 4-0 in their head to head, and would be the favorite to win.
In the last eight, Federer is drawn to face David Ferrer who is struggling this season and whom he has beaten 14 times and never lost to. The semis would see him up against Tomas Berdych. That match would be a tough one- the Czech has beaten Federer five times on hard courts, including at the U.S Open in 2012 when Federer was world No.1.
But a semi-final finish would guarantee Federer at least 360 points and some valuable match play leading into one of Federer’s favorite events, Cincinnati. The Swiss has won there 6 times and the fast surface and low bounce compliment his game as well as anywhere on the ATP Tour. And the form Federer has shown this year in climbing from 8th to 3rd in the ATP Rankings, a run that has seen him win Dubai and Halle and come runner-up at Indian Wells, Monte Carlo and Wimbledon, suggests he could win a seventh title.
That would earn him 1000 points and all the confidence you need when entering the US Open, an event Federer has won five times. Last season, the worst of Federer’s career since winning Wimbledon in 2003, the Swiss was knocked out of the fourth round by Tommy Robredo. A similar result is hard to conceive this year, though. Anything less than a last four finish would be a surprise. Should he get that far, Federer would walk away with 720 points. Meanwhile Nadal has 2000 points to defend at a slam which while he has won twice, he has had to do it with his serve and forehand at their peaks, which will be hard to achieve coming in with no preparation.
Should Federer win Cincinnati and make the last fours of Montreal and the US Open, he would have gained 2080 points, which would mean his ranking total would rise by 1900 points to 7970 while if Nadal was knocked out of the US Open last sixteen, his ranking points would have dropped to 8850. But if Federer were to do even better than what this article estimates, the difference between his being number two or three could rest on a couple of matches.
How things would play out should one of those matches be against Nadal would be fascinating, especially if it occured at the U.S Open, where amazingly the two have never met. With Federer having a great season at the age of 32, and Nadal having one of his worst, what would Federer and his fans give to see Federer turn the tables on his nemesis and steal the no.2 ranking from him in the twilight of his career and on arguably his best surface?
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