This year the Men’s U.S Open draw may be as wide open as it has been for the last decade. It features four past champions- Roger Federer (5), Novak Djokovic (1), Andy Murray (1), and Lleyton Hewitt (1), but all of them have question marks looming over their current chances to win another title. Meanwhile, the draw is without the other two active champions Rafael Nadal (2), and Juan Martin Del Potro (1).
The chances of the four past champions are slimmer than is usual for the favorites going into a Major. Federer is the most in form, but he is losing more finals than he wins nowadays, and his defeat to Tsonga in Toronto will give hope to any of his rivals at the top of their game. Djokovic is out of sorts. Murray has not really gotten his game back together since his back injury. Hewitt’s grand slam contending days are nearly a decade behind him.
Which means this year is the perfect year for a new U.S Open King to be crowned. And if it is anyone other than Stan Wawrinka, then it would be a new member to the Grand Slam winner’s club.
The tennis review takes a look below at the men who could be King this U.S Open– why they have a chance, and what they need, both things in their control and those little touches of luck debut slam champs need to help them on their way into the history books, to make it happen.
1. Milos Raonic (Seeded 5)
Why he has a chance: That big serve, perhaps the biggest in the game. He has a great attitude, too. He is very focused and when you hear him talk, his deep love for the game, and his respect for its history, is as big as his first service delivery. Mentally tough and with one of the weapons you need to win on hard courts, Raonic has two major things you need to win a Major: a big weapon and a big heart.
What he needs to happen: He needs to have his serve hold up every match. If the serve breaks down, or is slightly off and is broken down by one of the game’s master returners, Raonic is in trouble. While his overall game has improved greatly this past year to see him establish himself as a top ten player, it can let him down if he is drawn into long rallies against the more proficient baseliners. It would also help Raonic if Murray or Djokovic were taken out before the last four as both men can exploit his weaknesses over five sets. The fifth seed also needs to face a first time finalist, too. Nerves got the better of him in first Major semi-final at Wimbledon against Roger Federer, and they could do him in again if he ends up facing him in his first final.
2. Tomas Berdych (Seeded 6)
Why he has a chance: This is Berdych’s 45th slam, and he has been to one final at Wimbledon, so he has the most experience of the non slam winners. He also has a strong record at the US Open, making the semi-final after beating then world No.1 Federer in the 2012 event. Then there is his game, an effective serve, big groundstrokes and he can hit flat through the court. If he comes out aggressive from the first ball, he has a chance.
What he needs to happen: Berdych needs to shake off the rust before he goes up against upset specialist Lleyton Hewitt in the first round. After playing some of the best tennis of his career on his way to the Melbourne semi-finals- a few better struck second serves in tiebreaks to Stan Wawrinka and it could have been Berdych in the final versus an injured Nadal-and winning in Rotterdam, Berdych has struggled a little since the Clay Season. He could also do with Ernests Gulbis flopping before their projected fourth encounter as the Latvian has been known to blow him off court.
3. Grigor Dimitov (Seeded 7)
Why he has a chance: The former US Open boys champion is not known as BabyFed for nothing. A varied and well-timed service delivery, an all court game and all the talent you could ask for are all in his make-up. He is also improving on a steady level and just made his first Major semi-final at Wimbledon where he pushed eventual champion Novak Djokovic all the way. If his trajectory keeps going the way it is, it would not be a big surprise to see him in his first ever Major final, or even winning.
What he needs to happen: If Dimitrov comes up against Federer in the quarters, he needs to be prepared mentally and believe he can win. It will be a big occasion and there will be more column inches about the ‘passing of the baton’ than you can shake Federer’s RF97 tennis racket at. It might be better for Dimitrov if Federer went home early. He could certainly negotiate anyone from Federer’s bracket with ease, and he has a good record versus potential semi-final opponents Ferrer and Berdych.
4. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (Seeded 9)
Why he has a chance: Tsonga has the kind of game that can and does beat anyone. It did, just two weeks backs in Toronto when he beat Djokovic, Murray, Dimitrov and Federer to take the title. Tsonga comes into the US Open in form and in the mood. It has been nearly seven years since he made his run to the Australian Open, his sole appearance at that stage of a Major, and he must be feeling now is the time to not only equal that, but go one better.
What he needs to happen: He has to stay tough when matches get tight. He will certainly create chances to lead in big matches, but often, when things go down to the wire, Tsonga’s nerves get a little frazzled and he can short-circuit, hitting outrageous errors when just points before he was striking sublime winners. What once were the shots of a carefully executing man become the wild selections of a trigger happy blind assassin. Tsonga has shown he has the game to beat anyone, now he has to show he has the mind.
5. Kei Nishikori (Seeded 10)
Why he has a chance: Nishikori has all the technical ability, all the shots and when inspired, he is a joy to watch. Hard courts sit well with him too- he has been to the last sixteen in New York and the quarter-finals in Melbourne. He also has the mind of a future champion-look how he led Nadal by a set and a break on clay courts in the Madrid final. He believed he could win, and had he not gotten injured, he might have.
What he needs to happen: Though Nishikori may have the mind of a champion, he does not have the body. His body has broken down on him in Miami, Madrid and forced him out of the U.S Open Series ATP 1000 events. While he has reassured fans he is OK for the Open, if he has a couple of pounding matches, and he will with the likes of Jack Sock, Pablo Andujar and Leonardo Mayer in his sixteenth of the draw. He needs to get through those matches quickly, and hope for some upsets to happen to the heavyweights Djokovic, Murray, Raonic and Wawrinka in his half.
6. Marin Cilic
Why he has a chance: Marin Cilic belts his serve and his ground-strokes as big as anyone in the game, and when he is on top of it, no one is safe. This year he has won titles on the fast surfaces of Delray Beach and Zagreb, been to the final of Rotterdam and the quarter-finals of Wimbledon where he took Djokovic to five sets. He also took sets of the world No.1 in Miami and at Roland Garros. And this U.S Open Series, he pushed Roger Federer to the brink in Toronto, saving six match points in their epic encounter. A former semi-finalist at the Australian Open (2010), and a quarter-finalist at the US Open in 2009 (beat Murray) and 2012, (lead Murray by a set and a break), Cilic has all the tools to win a Major, and finally seems to be strengthening what has often been the weakest tool in his kit, his mind.
What he needs to happen: A lot has gone right for Cilic with his draw. Marcos Baghdatis will test him in the first round, but if Cilic is as good as he has been this year at dealing with lower ranked players in the early rounds of events, he should dismiss him, maybe dropping a set to one of the game’s most talented shotmakers over whom he has a 4-1 head to head lead.
Janowicz or Anderson, two other big servers may be waiting in the third round, but Cilic has much more pedigree than either of them and should be able to edge them in a tight four or five sets.
A meeting with fourth seed David Ferrer, who he trails 1-3, but beat at the 2009 Australian Open, will be tough, as Ferrer is in form and has one of the best return games on the tour right now. This is where Cilic will really prove just how far he has improved when it comes to his mind. Cilic will need the match to be scheduled in the heat of the day and for Ferrer to have been worn down by Simon in the previous round, but whatever the conditions Ferrer will get one more ball back than most men, and could frustrate Cilic into error. However if Cilic can keep his first serve percentage high, be smart about when he attacks and impose his game on Ferrer, then he can win. But he will have to be at the very top of his game, and his mind will have to be in its best shape- slams, though, don’t come along any other way.
If Cilic can get to the quarters, out of form Tomas Berdych could be the best possible draw. He leads him 5-3 and mastered him in thre sets at Wimbledon this year.
Once into the semis, Cilic would face either Federer or Dimitrov, both of whom have the variety and the wits to handle him. However, Cilic has the game to beat them. If he can use his serve for easy points, his flat brutal strokes to hit through the courts, the wisdom of coach Goran Ivanisevic to stay calm under pressure, and his experience of sitting out the event last year after being banned from substance abuse then Cilic could make it to the final where anything could happen and he would have a great chance to become King of New York.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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