Roger Federer, world No.3, Cincinnati winner, Wimbledon finalist and the U.S Open No.2 seed is one of the favorites, and in some eyes of the tennis media, the favorite to win the 2014 Men’s singles U.S Open title.
The tennis review looks at the cases for and against the Swiss winning his first slam since Wimbledon 2012.
Case: Roger Federer is the form player:
For: Federer is coming in as the Wimbledon runner up, the Toronto finalist and the Cincinnati winner. That is a pretty good run.
Against: But there have been better going into the the Open in year’s past. Federer himself was the Wimbledon champion and the Cincy winner in 2012 but lost in the last eight. Also, Federer beat Monfils, Raonic, Murray and Ferrer to win this year’s Cincy, while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga got through a much tougher draw in Djokovic, Murray, Dimitrov and Federer to win Toronto. Also, Milos Raonic is the U.S Open Series winner, so Federer is one of many in form players going into the event, and one of them beat him handily these past few weeks.
Case: Nadal is not in the draw.
For: Nadal leads Federer 8-2 in slams, and 2-0 at hard court ones, but only at one hard court slam- the Australian Open. The two have never met at the US Open. They did meet in the Cicncy quarters last year and Nadal won in three sets, so he would have his chances on the decoturf.
Against: Nadal was not in the draw in 2012, yet Federer still did not win. Nadal did not make it to the finals in 2009, Federer still did not win. In fact, Federer has not won the event since 2008, and has lost to Berdych, Del Potro, Djokovic and Robredo, so there are a few players who can beat him in New York other than Nadal.
Case: Djokovic is rusty.
For: Djokovic is arguably the greatest hard court player playing right now, and he has never performed so poorly on the North American hard court swing going into the Open. It is fair to say then that Federer is not going to be coming up against Djokovic in 2011 form. Federer is 2-2 versus the world No.1 this year so he has a chance, and he has the aggressive game to win, too.
Against: Djokovic’s rust is as much mental as technical. You could hear his brain squeaking as he went down to Tsonga and Robredo this summer. And that rust is understandable. An exhausting clay campaign in which he dealt commendably with the ‘career slam’ hype, a first slam title after losing so many finals in a final in which he nearly choked the lead, then the hype about the ‘ATP Masters slam’. Not to mention the marriage. So the fact he was not up for it the last few weeks is pretty understandable-he is in eleventh year as a pro after all.
Expect that rust to be well and truly gone after a few five setters in New York. Djokovic loves a fight in the big time, ask Federer who lost to him in five sets, once when leading with match points, the last two times they played in NYC. Federer will not need to0 much reminding how good Djokovic is on hard. He lost to him in a final set breaker in Indian Wells this year. The fact is Djokovic is a better hard court player right now and if the two meet in the final, the favorite will be the Serb.
Case: Federer has a dream draw.
For: He certainly has a good draw for the first four rounds. None of those matches should tire him out, and things could have been a lot, lot worse.
Against: Once Federer gets to the quarters, things get sketchier. Especially if he comes up against Grigor Dimitrov. The young star, known as Baby Fed, has what it takes to knock off Federer, and after his Wimbledon semi-final experience, he won’t be intimidated by the last eight in New York. Then, in the last four, Federer could meet Berdych. Berdych has beaten Federer at the US Open and at Wimbledon and will not be daunted at all. So, the draw has been kind to a point, but then like all slam draws for Federer since the Australian Open 2010, bar one, the draw gets a little nasty.
Case: It is Federer’s destiny.
For: Nadal is out, Djokovic is rusty, Federer is playing all conquering all-court tennis, he has a dream draw. Federer has 17 slams and deserves an 18th at 33 before he retires. Now is Federer’s time to do it- it is written in the stars.
Against: Since when did Shakepeare start writing tennis history? There are a lot of players who deserve to win a slam, who dedicate their live to that goal. Federer has 17, destiny would say that is quite enough. If Federer wins this US Open title, it will be because he earned it and thus deserves it. Not because the stars have it aligned that way.
So, while Federer is more than capable of winning his 18th slam in New York in two weeks, it is not as cut and dry as some would have us believe. Like any of the 17 times Federer has won a slam, or any player in history has for that matter, he is going to need to play his best tennis and get the odd bit of luck here and there. Federer has certainly worked hard enough to come up with both, and whatever happens this US Open, watching him compete at his best on the biggest stadiums is going to be something to remember.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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