The ATP 500 China Open event in Beijing next week is one much anticipated by tennis fans and will answer some important questions about the tennis world when it comes to players of the likes of Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Cilic.
It’s over. The wait is over. Since the U.S Open ended three weeks ago, the tennis scene has been a little dead. Yes, the Davis Cup and events in Metz, Kuala Lumpur and Shenzen have kept things ticking over, but the big events such as the Beijing Open bring out the best players and inject life into the tour as rivalries reignite, comebacks take place and a few shocks make the headlines.
The tennis review looks at the key questions this Beijing tournament will have answered by the end of the week.
1. Nadal’s comeback. Can he leave where he left off?
This is not one of Nadal’s longest time aways from the tour due to injury, but it is still a significant one. Since crashing out of Wimbledon’s fourth round and withdrawing from the U.S Open Series, Nadal has fallen from first in the ATP rankings to third.
However the question of can he leave where he left off is a loaded one. For, while he was no.1 and the French Open champion, he suffered some shock defeats (Melbourne to Wawrinka,Indian Wells to Dolgopolov, Monte Carlo to Ferrer, Barcelona to Amalgro, Halle to Brown) and so the question may be does he want to leave where he left off or come back even better?
The Spaniard has said in a recent interview he comes back stronger from injuries but just how strong can he come back in what is traditionally his weakest part of the season post US Open?
With Djokovic and Murray both struggling, this might be the best time for Nadal to catch them in Beijing. Nadal will also be happy for the match practice before the off-season starts in just over a month. If anything, this comeback should be viewed as more about preparation for the Australian Open than anything else, and getting his hard court game in its groove against the world’s best is the best possible prep a 14 time slam champ can have.
2. Djokovic’s slump. Is his dismal showing at this year’s U.S Open Series a bump in the road or a downward spiral?
Djokovic’s U.S Open Series slump was something of a shock for tennis fans. The Wimbledon win was thought to be something of a confidence booster after so many failures in slam finals, but it seemed to deflate him more than anyone dared predict. Djokovic talked about how the defeats in Cincinnati and Canada would only make him stronger, but he was then outplayed by first time slam semi-finalist Kei Nishikori at the U.S Open. Many great players have struggled in smaller events after a big emotional win only to come back at the next slam and win it, but Djokovic was not even able to find his best game on his best surface at one of his best events.
The question is has he been able to crack down on his lack of motivation and find the winner inside himself?
The answer is more yes than no. Djokovic is allowed something of a slump after the effort he has put into his game since 2010, and the Wimbledon win, after all those losses, was huge, and some deflation is understandable.
However, it could be argued Djokovic was struggling at times in big matches before that S.W 19 win and that he was lucky Federer’s serving dropped off in the fifth set.
Djokovic is hardly done, though,and while his losses this U.S Open Series were unexpected, and a continuance of that drop in form for a while longer would not be so surprising, expect him to be back to his old self come early 2015.
3. Cilic Post U.S Open. Is he up to the pressure?
Marin Cilic can ask Stan Wawrinka how hard it is to deal with the pressure after winning a slam. Players are subject to all manner of media obligations, in fact their increased prize money is effectively a trade off for their time post win. This takes up time that would otherwise be taken up with work and rest. Wawrinka did not cope so well after his Australian Open win- it took him until Monte Carlo to remember how to put together back to back wins against the world’s best.
The pressure will be on Cilic to deliver more big wins and more headlines and articles praising his game and keep his sponsors in the public eye. Cilic was much derided for his supposed lack of ‘mental toughness’ before his U.S Open win, and if he stumbles against Bai, a wild card from China, in his opening match, he can expect the praise he has been receiving since his slam success to die down soon and the harsh fact of ‘you are only as good as your last match’ to ring loudly in his ears. Deep down, he will know this, he does have Ivanisevic as a coach after all, and most first time slam champs do fail to deliver on their slam, so he will not be alone if he stumbles.
However, there is something very calm and assured about Cilic right now, and, unlike Wawrinka, who had never performed that well on the North American Spring swing, he will transition onto outdoor hard and indoor hard, where his game is at its best. Cilic also has the added factor of there being still relatively little interest in him as a slam champion whereas Wawrina had been touted by tennis purists for a while before he made big. Expect Cilic to take the pressure in his stride, take advantage of flying somewhat under the radar, and making a deep run in Beijing.
4. Andy Murray- Is his Shenzen victory a factor in getting himself back into the elite?
Success at an ATP 250 event against Monaco, Lacko and Devermann, and Robredo in the final, is not going to rank alongside Murray’s grand slam and ATP 1000 event wins, but if he needed a tournament victory, it is now. Murray has not made an ATP final since his 2013 Wimbledon win, and has fallen out of the top ten.
So how much of a factor is a small tournament win against opponents ranked outside of the top 20 going to play in Murray getting back into the elite?
Outdoor hard courts are Murray’s best surface, and the confidence a win over Robredo in Shenzen will give him is huge after the disappointment of 2014. At the very least, he will have remembered how it feels to win a semi-final and then the final, and that surge of winningness could carry him on through the opening rounds in Beijing, and perk him up when he faces the likes of Djokovic, Cilic or Nadal. A player of Murray’s quality- he has made the quarters of all slams this year despite his ‘rustiness’-is not over at the age of 27, and with his game beginning to switch into gear, he should be able to get back on the road to the elite this Beijing event.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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