While all the talk may be about Roger Federer and what he needs to do and have happen to grab the ATP year end No. 1 ranking from Novak Djokovic, the simple fact is this- Novak Djokovic has a lot less to worry about than Federer when it comes to what he needs to do to wrap up the season ending pole position. While Federer would have to go unbeaten in nine matches (seven in London, two in Lille), Djokovic only has to win three matches. And, when you consider he has a 41-5 lead over his group, the Serb could potentially do it in the first week of the London event. The tennis review takes a look at Djokovic’s first three matches and how his ending the season as the No. 1 ranked player on the ATP tour is as on his racket as it possibly could be.
Match A: Vs Berdych. (Leads Berdych 16-2 in their head to head.)
The last time these two met, in the Beijing final a month ago, Djokovic dropped just two games and prompted Berdych to say he was the best player he had competed against.
Berdych’s last win against Djokovic came in 2013 when he came back from a set and a break down in Rome to beat the Serb. That comeback saw Berdych produce some of his best ball striking in an almost unbeatable run of play, and he will need a similar performance against Djokovic in London if he wants to help Federer’s No. 1 chances. Anything less than his best and Berdych will find one more ball coming back from his huge stroks than he would like and returns coming of his serve he does not have a chance of retrieving.
Berdych’s chances of reproducing such a performance next week? Not too bad. The Czech has been playing better since his straight sets quarter-final loss to Marin Cilic- he made the Beijing final, the quarters of Shanghai, won Stockholm, and made the semis in Paris. So, he could have something of a purple patch against Djokovic. However, he will need to produce something more consistent than a colorful streak to get the win. In their 14 hard court matches, and 3 of them have come at the ATP World Tour Finals (2010, 2011, 2012), Djokovic has only dropped 5 sets. In fact, the Serb could not have asked for a better match up in the round robin stage, and while he will not underestimate Berdych, he will feel confident he can fight if the Czech gets on a roll, and be there to clean up when he runs out of steam.
Prediction: Djokovic wins in two sets, one tight, one on cruise control.
Match B: Vs Cilic (Leads 10-0)
These two have met three times this year and each time Cilic has bothered the hell out of the world No. 1. He won the first set 6-1 in Miami, took a set in their third round Roland Garros clash, and he led him two sets to one in their Wimbledon last eight match. Each time Djokovic’s baseline skills and return have been too much for Cilic to handle, and the Croat, much like Berdych, will have to serve at his best and take control of points early if he is to get his first win over the Serb in five attempts.
The recently crowned U.S Open champion could do it. While he was disappointing in his Shanghai loss to Murray – he won only five games- the Scot is back in form and is a bad match up for the Croat, especially a tired one coming off the high of his first slam win. Cilic bounced back from that loss when he won the ATP 250 title in Moscow, an encouraging sign of his development as he won an event he was the favorite to win after top seed Raonic lost in the first round. After that win, Cilic withdrew from Paris citing injury, in what would prove considering the slowness of the courts, a wise move.
Prediction: Djokovic wins in three sets.
Match C: Vs Wawrinka. (Leads 15-3)
Wawrinka got his third win over Djokovic in 18 meetings in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open this season, but it took him to 9-7 in the fifth to get the win, and he was playing much better then than he is now. The chances of Wawrinka, who this autumn lost to the world’s 103rd ranked player, producing the kind of tennis necessary to beat Djokovic in his current form are low.
Prediction: Djokovic in straights.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
christiandeverille@gmail.com
thetennisreview 