Top seed Novak Djokovic will take on Andy Murray (6) in the Australian Open 2015 men’s final in Melbourne. This will be the fourth meeting between the two at Melbourne park with Djokovic having won all the previous three, including two finals in 2011 and 2013.
Djokovic leads the head to head 15-8 and won all of their four encounters in 2014. He also leads their hard court head to head 13-6.
The two players were close friends as juniors and only a week separates them in age (Murray is the older one). There is a wealth of difference between them, however, in achievements. Djokovic has seven slams to Murray’s two, has won 4 WTF’s to Murray’s 0, and has spent 131 weeks at No. 1 while Murray has never reached the sport’s pinnacle.
Djokovic, though, has played a major factor in Murray’s greatest achievements, his two slam wins (Wimbledon ’12, U.S Open ’13)- the Scot beat the Serbian in the final both times.
Murray’s victories in those slam finals will be small comfort to him in tomorrow’s final, however. Djokovic has beaten Murray in two Australian Open finals, and both times convincingly. The plexi-cushion suits Dkokovic’s game in the same way that grass and the fast U.S Open courts suit Murray’s.
Djokovic has all the time he needs to set up his aggressive ground-strokes and track down his opponent’s shots on the medium slow hard courts of the Rod Laver Arena. Murray also enjoys the same advantage- he and Djokovic resort to similar styles of play in much of their matches- but Djokovic’s aggressive baseline game is better, more natural, than Murray’s, and his superior stamina has made the difference in their previous Melbourne encounters.
Djokovic also has the better backhand, that shot being both men’s biggest weapon, with more angle and variety, and the depth to keep Murray back and make him play defense rather than displaying his famed touch and variety.
Murray has been able to display plenty of that touch and variety the last fortnight. Against Dimitrov, Kyrgios and Berdych, his talents came to the fore. But Djokovic will give him a very different ball to any of them, and as Murray found in the 2011 final, which he lost 4-6, 2-6, 3-6, there is little, if Djokovic is on form, he can do about it.
Djokovic, however, was not on form in his semi-final with Wawrinka. In the fourth set he did not hit a single winner. However, a match like that before the final could play into Djokovic’s hands. Most champions have to get through one bad match in a slam, and Djokovic has had his now. He will have had plenty to think about and work on, and he may come into the final even more focused than usual.
Murray, meanwhile, has not really been tested mentally and physically the way Djokovic was by Wawrinka. Murray’s draw opened up for him with the defeats of Nadal and Federer. He had to face Dimitrov, emerging from a six month slump and crumbling in the fourth set after leading 5-2, an overly aggressive Kyrgios and the mentally questionable Berdych.
For these two champions, though, it will come down to whoever is better on the day, to hell with history. Both men can beat each other in slam finals, ( they are tied at 2-2), both can play brilliantly on plexicushion, and both will be motivated to win.
The fact that Djokovic has beaten Murray more times in Melbourne, has four titles there to Murray’s zero, a commanding head to head, and on his day is a better player makes it hard to look beyond him as a favorite for a record breaking fifth Australian Open title.
Prediction: Djokovic to win in four sets.
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