ATP Dubai Final Preview: Djokovic Vs Federer

The ATP’s world No.1 and 2 will meet in the ATP 500 Dubai final. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.

Novak Djokovic Vs Roger Federer.

Head to head:

The Swiss leads the head to head 19-17, and also leads their Dubai head to head 2-1, winning their semi-final last year in three sets.

Recent history:

Federer beat Djokovic three times last year (Dubai, Monte-Carlo, Shanghai) and all those matches took place at the semi-final stages. The Swiss lost their biggest matches, though, in the finals of Indian Wells and Wimbledon, and withdrew from the ATP World Tour Finals Final.

Federer, the defending champion, will be playing for his seventh Dubai title, and Djokovic will be playing for his fifth, and this is both their second final of 2015, with Djokovic winning the Australian Open and Federer winning in Brisbane.

Current form and run to the final:

Neither man has had to play someone who matches up badly for them and so assessing their true form is difficult.

Federer had to beat three tour veterans in Youzhny, Verdasco and Gasquet on his way to the last four, but he has commanding head to head leads over them and did not drop a set. In his semi-final, he had to beat the inexperienced Borna Coric, playing only his second ATP semi-final, and the Swiss dropped just three games.

Djokovic beat Pospisil, Golubev and Ilhan in straight sets and then took three sets to beat Tomas Berdych. That performance was an up and down one with Djokovic winning the first set 6-0 before dropping the second. Berdych, though, is having a stellar 2015 and can get under Djokovic’s skin on medium paced surfaces if he is striking the ball at his cleanest.

Djokovic’s tougher semi-final may have provided him with the better preparation for the final. The Serbian has never had it easy against Federer and has had to tough out all his wins against the Swiss, and tomorrow will be no different. The match against Berdych will have gotten him in the right frame of mind for a fight and will have given the Serbian something to think about.

Match-up: If Federer comes out aggressive and sharp, he could take this in straight sets as he did the last time these two played, back in Shanghai last Autumn.

Djokovic has the speed and the love of a target to chase down Federer’s net play and pass him. The Serbian also has the depth of shot to keep Federer back, and a more aggressive approach of his own to end the points should he gain the upper hand early in rallies. If Federer does not get the job done quickly, Djokovic will use these skills to work his way into the match, and with the world No. 1’s superior stamina and ability to maintain a more consistent level than Federer over a long period of time, he will win the match if it goes to three sets.

What will also make the difference is the serve. Federer is a greater server, no doubt, but Djokovic has the game’s steadiest second serve right now, and while Federer’s service level will drop as the match goes on, Djokovic’s will not falter. Even  if his first serve drops, his second serve will be there to be relied on, a factor that will give Djokovic confidence if the match goes to a final set tiebreaker. And, as Federer’s serve starts to drop, the game’s best return of serve will also be there to take advantage.

Prediction: Federer has to get this done quickly, but he has not faced anyone who challenges him the way Djokovic does all event, and so it may take him a while to get going. In fact, he has not been challenged at all. Facing the game’s best returner and all round best player is going to be a stretch for Federer who went out early in Australia to Seppi, a man he had had a 10-0 head to head lead over. 

Djokovic, meanwhile, has been tried and tested the past month, beating Wawrinka and Murray in Australia, and getting through a tough scrap against Berdych. The Serbian will be battle ready and will have too much game and too much in the tank for Federer.

Djokovic to win in three sets.

Commentary by Christian Deverille

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