The BNP Paribas Open has a packed day 3 schedule featuring some very intriguing clashes. The Tennis Review previews Djokovic versus Baghdatis, Cilic versus Monaco and Coric versus Tomic, looks at Gulbis’ and Kokkinakkis’ chances and gives its predictions.
Djokovic Vs Baghdatis
This one is the big match of the day occupying the Stadium 1 night slot and featuring the world No.1 and three time champion up against the former top tenner and Australian Open runner up who beat Federer in the desert in 2010.
The intriguing factor about this match is how the conditions suit both men in different ways.
The conditions, which will be slower at night, will allow Djokovic all the time he thrives on to set up his ground-strokes, track down balls and structure points so he can turn defense into offense when he needs t0.
Baghdatis will benefit from the extra time, too- he will be better able to get to shots and showcase his at times sublime shot-making.
This extra time could also be a downfall for Baghdatis, though- he might have too much time to think about which shot to use from his heavy arsenal and while Baghdatis may be one of the game’s greatest ever shot-makers, he is far from one of its greatest ever shot selectors, prone to making head-scratching errors.
And Baghdatis will have to select plenty of shots. Djokovic’s steadiness and athleticism means he can get back most of Baghdatis’ best shots which will dishearten the Cypriot.
Baghdatis has a lot of heart, but even the heartiest of players can have their most vital organ torn out by the relentless Djokovic.
Prediction: Baghdatis is a showman, a big match player, and will rise to the occasion- a Saturday night match at one of tennis’ biggest events.
But history tells us who is the superior player in this match up- Djokovic leads 7-0, 4-0 on hard, (last played 2012 in Miami.) and all signs point to an attractive but ultimately predictable contest with Djokovic winning in two.
Cilic Vs Monaco
Cilic has not played since the 2014 WTF, but he won’t have been sitting idly by with Goran Ivaneseivic as his coach. The two masterminded Cilic’s superb U.S Open win last season, and are working hard on another slam win this season.
Slow hard court is not Cilic’s best surface, but this match will be played early in the day so the conditions will be a little faster. This will make the match a good opportunity to get some shots going again before Cilic’s best part of the season-the Grass court season and then the North American hard court stretch starting.
Monaco will be a challenging opponent for a first match back after four months. The two are tied at 1-1 in their head to head, with Cilic winning their only hard court match, a three set contest at the 2008 Beijing Olymoics. The two have not played since 2009.
Monaco has been in good form recently, getting his ranking back up to 48 and making the final in his home event in Argentina on Clay. The former top tenner is 7-6 this year, though, did not record his first hard court win of the sesason until be beat 78th ranked Teymuraz Gabashvili in 3 sets in his first round match in Indian Wells.
That is a lot of recent match play for Monaco who will have the advantage when it comes to match fitness, confidence and rhythm. The Argentine will get lots of balls back and will be able to pass an attacking Cilic. The Croat will need to avoid giving him a target and make the Argentine win points actively, which will be tough as the Argentine lacks a major weapon.
Cilic, though, has plenty of those with his serve and forehand. His serve should get him a lot of winners and short balls. He will also be able to tee off on any weak Monaco second serves directed at his forehand.
Cilic also has underrated defensive skills and will be able to go toe to toe with Monaco from the back of the court, and most crucially, will have the upper hand when it comes to turning defense into attack and taking control of points.
Prediction: Cilic to win in straight sets.
Thanasi Kokkinakkis Vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
This will be the first contest between the tour veteran and the up and comer ranked 124th.
Garcia-Lopez has made a recent return to form, got his ranking up to 26 and is close to his 2011 career high of 23. (21.02). The Spaniard is 10-5 this year and reached the last sixteen at the Australian Open and won the indoor hard event at Zagreb.
Kokkinakis is also having a strong year. He started it by beating Gulbis 10-8 in the fifth at the Australian Open. That was an opportunistic win as Gulbis was injured, but it showed what a great match player Kokkinakis is for someone so young. He displayed that skill again when he beat Rosol last week on clay in the Davis Cup.
The young Australian, playing in only his third ATP 1000 event, will exploit Lopez’ weaknesses on a slower court and make him hit a lot of balls. He will also go for his shots and be pumped up. But Garcia-Lopez is very experienced, has an 8-6 record at Indian Wells and is in good form.
Prediction: Garcia-Lopez in a tight three setter.
Daniel Gimeno Traver Vs Ernests Gulbis
Gulbis has been struggling coming back from injury and is 0-5 this season. The confidence player is going to need a win and soon before he has to defend his Roland Garros semi-final points, and this might be the perfect place to do it.
Gulbis has a powerful enough game for all surfaces and will enjoy the time he has to set his shots up in Indian Wells, and with this match played early in the day, the ball will fly faster through the courts which will play into his hands.
The Latvian has had a favorable draw, too. Gulbis leads Gimeo Traver, the world no. 94, 2-0 and beat him twice last year, in Moscow and Barcelona, in straight sets.
Prediction: Gulbis in 3. Gimeno Traver has not beaten a top 150 player this season and Gulbis has had plenty of time between losing in the Dubai first round and this opening match to work on his game which should be too much for his opponent.
Bernard Tomic Vs Borna Coric
This is arguably the match most tennis fans will be most looking forward to. This is the first contest between the highly touted yet underachieving Australian talent against an up and coming highly touted talent who seems to have the hard working ethic Tomic has appeared to lack.
Coric has certainly been working hard this past month. He qualified for his first ATP 1000 event in Indian Wells, saving three match points in his final qualifying round. He is also coming of the back of a run to the Dubai semi-finals as a lucky loser.
The Croats’s great return and defense will be his weapons against Tomic. His ability to get every ball back will frustrate the flashier shot-making of Tomic and force him to come out of his comfort zone and be more aggressive.
Tomic will have to bring Coric out of his comfort zone, too, denying him any rhythm with his great variety and unsettling him by bringing him in and passing him at the net.
Tomic has been playing well this year, and has compiled a 16-6 win-loss record, showing a new found commitment to the game. A clash against a member of the generation threatening to outshine his before his has even achieved anything will certainly test that commitment. Coric will be solid, will not give up and loves an upset, and Tomic cannot afford to lose focus for even a second. Tomic has been prone to give up when matches have not gone his way, but those days seem over and this match will be a perfect opportunity for him to prove his improved mental toughness.
Prediction: Tomic in 3. The Australian has too much experience, is in good form, and will come out sharp against a dangerous opponent.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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