Day Five of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells features wild card Thanasi Kokkinakis taking on Marin Cilic’s conqueror Juan Monaco in the third round. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
Kokkinakis is playing only his third ATP 1000 event. Impressively, he has qualified two times and received only one wild card, to Indian Wells, after Juan Martin Del Potro’s withdrawal. This, the third round, is the furthest he has gone at an ATP 1000.
Monaco, on the other hand, is competing in his 63rd ATP 1000. In all those events, he has made the third round 19 times, and has gotten past that stage 6 times. Two of those times were at Indian Wells when he made the last sixteen in 2008 and the last eight in 2010.
The slow hard courts suit the Monaco back-court game. Before Indian Wells, his six 2015 wins had all come on clay, five coming in Beunos Aires where he made the final.
The world no. 48 did not win his first hard court match this season until the first round of Indian Wells this week when he beat Gabashvili in three sets. In the next round he won his second hard court match of 2015 knocking out Marin Cilic 6-4, 6-4. Monaco was a little lucky to meet Cilic in his first match back from injury since last November.
Kokkinakis has had some good results on hard courts in 2015. He has only played hard courts this year and, including his Indian Wells wins, has a 6-5 record in ATP main draws, but has also qualified for three events, winning eight matches in that process.
Some of his results have been impressive. He beat Julien Benneteau in the first round of Brisbane, beat 13th seed Ernests Gulbis in five sets in the Australian Open first round and he came back from two sets down to beat Lukas Rosol in the Davis Cup on indoor hard.
His last round was impressive too as he came back from a set down to beat world no. 26 and recent Zagreb champion Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.
Kokkinakis has proven himself to be a big match player this season and this round of 32 match will be the biggest one of his career.
And a very winnable one, too. Monaco’s defensive skills and steady back-court game may be comfortable on the surface, but so is Kokkanakis’ more aggressive baseline game. Kokkinakis is also, at 18, very quick, can play defense well, and standing at 6ft 5 his serve is developing into a weapon.
Kokkinakis returns well, also, and will be able to work his way into the Monaco service games without too much difficulty, applying pressure on the Spaniard.
Meanwhile, the Australian’s own serve and more aggressive game will help him move through his service games faster as he will look to move forward and take on the short-balls, and on the slow hard court courts he will have plenty of time to set up his forehand which has a good range.
The 18 year old has all the skills needed to make his ATP 1000 breakthrough at Indian Wells. He has the right opponent, too. All he has to do is keep calm and execute, and he has shown us a few times this year that he is very capable of doing so.
Prediction: Kokkinakis has more weapons than Monaco, more hard court wins this year, and is full of confidence. Kokkinakis to win in straight sets.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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