Day 6 of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells features a third round rematch of the round of 32 Australian Open contest in which Andreas Seppi upset the second seed Roger Federer in four sets.
Before that upset, Federer had beaten Seppi ten times and lost only 1 set. Federer was going into the match as the Brisbane champion and world no.2 at a tournament he had won four times and had not lost before the semi-finals at for 11 years.
Seppi scored not only his first win over Federer, but his first ever top ten win that day, making amends for letting slip a two sets to love lead over Novak Djokovic at the 2012 French Open.
Since that win in Melbourne, Seppi has gone 7-3 at ATP tour events including a run to the Zagreb final where he lost to Garcia-Lopez. Berdych and Gasquet are the other two players to beat him, both in three sets. But while Seppi has been testing the top ranked players, he has not beaten anyone in the top 50- the highest ranked player he has beaten is 55th ranked Marcel Granollers.
Federer, meanwhile, is 5-0 since the Australian Open loss and won the title in Dubai, beating Djokovic in the final.
To say Federer will be focused for this rematch is an understatement. The Swiss wants to win Wimbledon and every bad loss before that event undermines his confidence and his status and affects his chances.
Seppi caught Federer off guard that day. The 30 year old’s experience, steady back court play and solid service all came together against a Federer who was out of sorts. Federer might have gotten by had he not faced someone who has been around as long as Seppi.
Five sets is a different game to three sets, though. Seppi had more time to execute his strategy in Melbourne. He will not have that time in Indian Wells and Federer will come out sharp. As he has found in eight of his nine straight sets losses to Federer in best of three, those best of three setters can fly by.
Luckily for Seppi, he meets Federer on one of the tour’s slowest hard courts. Seppi’s game translates well to all surfaces- his three titles come on grass, clay and indoor hard- and the slow courts will allow him plenty of time to set up passing shots for Federer at the net, and Seppi loves a target.
Federer will need to have his back-court game on form as it is unlikely he will be able to win this one entirely from the net as he might in Basel or Dubai. He will also need his serve to get some easy points and spend his energy on working his way into Seppi’s service games.
Federer played well enough in his second round win over Diego Schwartzmann, winning 77% of his total service points and 47% of his total returns. Meanwhile Seppi compiled stats of 70-34.
But neither win tells us anything about the form they might produce, both playing within themselves against opponents their games match up well against.
Until Melbourne, though, the consensus was Federer’s game matched up well with Seppi. The question is was it a one off or can Seppi reproduce the strategy he employed against Federer that day, and the high level of serving, and grab another famous win?
The answer is on Federer’s racket. If he comes out playing his attacking brand of tennis and stays committed and focused, he will get this over with quickly. If he takes his eye of the ball for even a second though, against an opponent who must fancy his chances, he could find himself with a lot longer between Indian Wells and the start of the Clay season than he anticipated.
Prediction: Federer to win in three sets.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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