Day ten of the BNP Paribas Open features one of the ATP’s best match ups, Roger Federer versus Tomas Berdych, a rare contest of two aggressive minded players. The Tennis Review looks forward to the quarter final action in Indian Wells, California, and predicts the winner.
Federer leads the head to head 12-6, but hard courts are where their matches are the most competitive and Federer just leads the hard court head to head 6-5, and 6 of those matches have gone the distance. This will be their first meeting at Indian Wells.
Berdych has had some big wins over Federer in his career. The Czech beat Federer, and comprehensively so, when the Swiss was world no.1 and the reigning Wimbledon champion in the U.S Open 2012 quarter-finals. He also beat him at Wimbledon 2010 in the last eight, the first time Federer had lost before the final since 2002.
Both men are struggling with the conditions in Indian Wells- slow, high bouncing hard courts difficult to hit through, and balls which fly through the air and are difficult to control. Berdych was taken to three sets by Lukas Rosol and just survived, while Federer was heard talking with Seppi at the net after their third round match about how tough it was to play at the event, and has hit a high number of errors off his ground-strokes in his matches.
Nevertheless, both men have adapted and won three matches each. And while both men excel on fast courts, they are also excellent on slower ones, too. And against each other, with neither one being defensive minded, their slow court matches may vary in how points play out, but they are still competitive and a good match up with both men looking to win from inside the court.
The two men will be helped a little by their match being scheduled in the heat of the day. The heat will cause the already quick balls to fly even faster- a bonus for both men’s serves, particularly Federer whose serve was on top form against Sock, and his biggest strength this week.
Berdych’s main weapon, will also benefit, the aspect of his game that troubles Federer the most- his ground game. Berdych is the cleanest hitter of the ball on the ATP tour, and his flat ground-strokes bring him plenty of winners against the Swiss whose defensive skills are not up to the standards of Nadal and Djokovic, players against whom Berdych struggles.
Federer’s defense is a little underrated though, and he will have a bit more time to get to balls, however he will not want to grind out Berdych’s service games. With Nadal possibly waiting in the next round, Federer will not want to tire himself out in the afternoon sun.
Federer will stay committed to his brand of aggressive tennis throughout, race through his service games, and work on creating opportunities to come in on Berdych’s serves. He will certainly do his best to chase down Berdych’s shots, make him hit one more and profit from the high error count that has been common at the event, but he will do his best to avoid such a scenario, committing to all out aggression. If he does decide to stay on the baseline and make Berdych hit one more ball, it will be if he finds himself deep into a Berdych service game within shot of a break-point.
Most likely, Federer will go for broke with even greater ferocity as the sets near their business ends. If Berdych holds up to the challenge, then the match will come down to tiebreaks, and these two have played 12 of them in their 18 matches. Federer has won 7 of them. The two matches that have come down to final set tiebreakers have been split between them and with them both having such huge weapons, if this match goes down to the wire, it could really go either way.
This match is likely to go the distance, too, and if it does, Federer has the edge on serve and the mental edge, too. It is hard to see Berdych breaking the Federer serve, which should hold up well, and easier to see Federer getting a chance on a Berdych serve or forcing an error in a long rally to get a vital mini-break.
Prediction: For all Berdych’s big wins, Federer still leads the head the head by some margin and has been playing the better tennis this week. Federer to win in three tough sets.
Watch highlights of Federer and Berdych’s 2010 three set clash in Toronto below.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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