The BNP Paribas Open Day 9 will see world No. 1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic up against the 35th and first time Indian Wells quarter-finalist Bernard Tomic.
Bernard Tomic, at 22, will play his first ATP 1000 quarter-final today after 25 starts. By contrast, his opponent today, Novak Djokovic reached his first quarter-final at an ATP 1000 on his ninth attempt, and won his first ATP 1000 title on his tenth. By the time he had contested 22 of them, he had another 3 titles, a final and 3 semi-final finishes.
T0mic and Djokovic have one thing in common career wise- they were both highly touted juniors. Tomic is arguably the most talented player of his generation with an arsenal of shot to compete with anyone and some of the best hands on tour, while Djokovic’s talent from the baseline earned him back to back wins over the world’s top three in Montreal at the age of 20.
But junior success and talent is where the similarities between the two end. All the talent in the world is redundant without hard work, a fact Djokovic was aware of early, and which he took notice of. The Serbian won his first grand slam at the end of 20, beating Federer on the way.
Tomic has been to the last eight of a slam once in his career, at Wimbledon 2011. In his 12th grand slam event, he was accused of tanking in the second round to Andy Roddick. In Djokovic’s 12th slam, also at the US Open, he was competing against Federer in the final.
It was Djokovic who beat Tomic in his one and only slam quarter-final. The then 19 year old took a set of the eventual champion, his effective serving, which can be quite powerful at times, court craft, slice and touch all coming together in an impressive last eight debut.
Those skills have often been m.i.a since then, but a recent re-dedication to tennis has seen Tomic get close to his his career high ranking of 24 and he is 16-6 on the year, 20-6 counting his run to the last eight in Indian Wells, his sixth quarter-final appearance of the year.
One of those wins came over the in-form David Ferrer who led him 3-0 before losing to the Australian in straight sets in the second round.
The question is can Tomic turn around his 0-3 deficit to Djokovic? The Serbian is having a strong start to the season, winning the Australian Open and finishing runner-up in Dubai, and he put in an impressive performance against his North American hard court nemesis John Isner, beating him in straight sets last night.
Djokovic is keen on the night time conditions, and he will benefit from them when he meets Tomic. The colder air slows the court down even more, giving Djokovic plenty of time to ply his trade from the baseline, and he has the stamina to stay out there all night if need be.
But Tomic has been displaying patience, too, the only way to win on these slow courts unless your serve is one of the game’s best. The Australian was patience itself against an on-fire Kokkinakis, taking his time to construct points and outlasting the teenager in three sets.
Point construction is where Tomic excels, and his variety can disrupt anyone’s rhythm, which will be essential against Djokovic. His slice will also open the court for him to end points early- Tomic is not fit enough to out-grind Djokovic and will need to mix things up with both attack and defence.
His serve, impressive this season, will also be crucial against the game’s best returner. This year Tomic is ranked 7th for break points saved and first serve percentage, and 5th for aces, and the fast balls will help him out in the night time conditions.
Tomic has a lot going for him in his first ATP 1000 quarter-final, but one huge factor against him – Djokovic. The Serbian likes rhythm, but he can also get back whatever ball is sent his way, and if Tomic fails to take time away from him, he is going to see a lot of high bouncing balls coming back at him.
Whether or not he can handle it for three sets, we shall see. Whatever happens, it looks like we are seeing the emergence of a more mature, hard-working Tomic, a sight as good for tennis as the youngster’s very pretty game.
Prediction: Djokovic to win in two close sets.
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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