- Photo courtesy of in.reuters.com
Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will face each other for the 25th time when they meet in the semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner
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One of the most prolific ATP rivalries is also one of the most difficult to watch. The two, who were junior rivals, too, have been competing against one another for a decade now in the professional ranks. But while they have both been among the very best of their generation, their matches have not produced the best quality, nor has the rivalry been that competitive, with Djokovic leading the head to head 16-8.
The last time Andy Murray beat Novak Djokovic was Wimbledon 2013. Since then, Murray has lost five consecutive times. In the three best of three matches, he has not won a set. In the best of fives, he has won a set each time.
Djokovic now leads Murray 14-6 on hard courts. In North America, the two are tied at 5-5 with Djokovic leading 1-0 at Indian Wells, a match played all the way back in 2007.
Djokovic and Murray matches are not for the faint hearted whatever the score. The double handed backhands back and forth from the baseline until an error occurs or someone, finally, takes a risk, the speed around the court which sees every risk returned, the huge returns of serve- they have the same three major weapons and their is little variety in their matches as they try to wear each other out from the baseline.
While they may share the same styles of play, there is one very big difference between them- the mind.
Djokovic is mentally tougher than Murray- 138 weeks as ATP No.1 to none, eight slams to two demonstrate that, as does the head to head lead. Murray may be physically stronger at times, as he was in the Wimbledon ’13 and U.S Open ’12 finals, but when they are both in good shape and it is the mind which makes the difference then Djokovic wins.
That was evident in the Australian Open final this year when Murray, playing arguably his best tennis since his Wimbledon win, challenged Djokovic all the way for two sets only to crumble in the final two, winning a mere three more games.
In that match, like in many of their matches, Djokovic broke away from the pattern of baseline rallies, ambushing Murray with more aggressive play, distracting him with his body language and gestures as much as his game, and breaking his spirit.
That match is one Murray will wish to forget. But that will be hard in Indian Wells. The conditions in Indian Wells have one striking similarity to Melbourne- the slow high bouncing courts.
That is bad news for Murray whose wins over Djokovic have mostly come on the faster ATP surfaces where the ball bounces lower and his counter-punching skills can reel off low bouncing winners even Djokovic cannot retrieve.
But the daytime heat and the fast balls will offer some consolation for the Scot. Those conditions will also mean the two will get through their service games more easily with more service winners, saving them both valuable miles on the clock, though there will be more errors than usual when do they get into rallies because of the difficult to control balls.
High error count, grinding from the baseline, lack of variety- it is going to get ugly. It won’t help either that Djokovic has not played for two days and will be lacking rhythm, especially as he will not have gotten any either from his Isner win.
Murray, meanwhile, has not been pushed, and his form since the Australian Open has been poor. At least Djokovic has been beating and facing quality opponents in Isner here and Berdych in Dubai. Meanwhile Murray has been losing to Coric and Simon, who beat him for the first time in 12 matches.
This match will come down to the mental side of things, with both men being fit and relatively rested after smooth draws. The serve will give Djokovic the edge as both men struggle with their ground game. Djokovic has a better serve than Murray, particularly on the second serve, and he will also tee off on any of Murray’s weak second deliveries which will bounce nice and high the way Djokovic likes it.
One of those weak deliveries will come when matters get tight. Djokovic will make Murray only too aware how ready he is for the second serve, and who knows what else the Serbian will get up to to rattle the Scot. Murray will have to believe, and he will have to stay strong, and in matches where Djokovic has been fit and in good form, he has mostly failed to do that.
As ugly as their matches get (not including the 2012 Australian Open semi-final which was their most high quality contest), there is something fascinating, and darkly fun, in the games that take between these two not just on the court but in the mind, too.
So far, Djokovic has shown he is the master at those games, conjuring all sorts of tricks and illusions to get the better of the Scot. The big question is can Murray keep the Serb’s tricks from getting into his head, and can he perform a few magic tricks of his own?
Prediction: Djokovic to win in straight sets
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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