The BNP Paribas Open Final features top seed Novak Djokovic against second seed Roger Federer for the second year in a row. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
Head to head
Federer leads 20-17 overall. The Swiss also leads 15-9 on hard courts. At Indian Wells, Djokovic leads 2-0, (2014, 2011) winning each time in three sets.
Federer has won their last two hard court matches in straight sets, but those wins came on two of the ATP tour’s fastest courts in Shanghai and Dubai.
Match up
This is, on the surface, a classic contrast of styles- Federer is the attacking player and Djokovic is the aggressive-defensive baseliner. But both men are dynamic enough that they can play other styles, too. Federer defends well when forced to, and Djokovic is not afraid to come forward, which adds an element of unpredictability to their clashes.
History at IW
Federer has won four times, and Djokovic three. Federer is 52-10 in the desert, Djokovic is 40-6.
Conditions
The conditions suit both men in different ways. Federer benefits from the fast balls and, with this match played at 1pm, the heat, which will make them fly even quicker, ideal for his service and net game.
Djokovic benefits from the slow surface and the high bounce. He has the best return in the game, and will have a little extra time to get the return back, negating a little the help the fast balls give the Federer serve to hit through the court.
The world No. 1 also has the high bounce he likes, the time to get to the ball and set up his shots, and he will be striking deep and with top spin to the Federer backhand to force the error or open up the court.
Djokovic will make more errors than usual but so will Federer who will have to engage in more rallies than he did in his previous matches.
Djokovic also benefits from the fast ball on the serve as his serve is much improved and his second serve the best in the game.
Form
Djokovic made more errors than winners in his semi-final win against Murray (27 errors to 15 winners), but that win was more about tactics than prettiness. The Serb’s best match was against Isner, which shows how the surface suits his return game.
Federer was in top form against Berdych and performed well against Raonic though he dropped his level a little towards the end, and was often threatened from the back of the court only for Raonic to miss when he had an opening.
Federer will not get away with that against Djokovic who will construct points and execute his shots far more consistently than any of Federer’s opponents so far.
Who will win?
Djokovic in three. The surface favors his ground game, and his service game, too. His return is too good, helped by the surface, and Federer has not been tested by a good returner yet.
Federer is serving too well not to get a set, but once Djokovic finds his groove, the Serb should take control of the match and win his fourth Indian Wells title, tying Federer in that respect.
Watch highlights from the classic three set final Djokovic and Federer played last year below.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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