- Photo courtesy of zimbio.com
Novak Djokovic’s victory at the Miami Open looks a sure bet. The Serbian won the Indian Wells- Miami double last season, and after his win in Indian Wells last Weekend, it is hard to see him not repeating that feat this year.
But who would win if Djokovic was not in the draw? With Murray and Nadal both struggling, they are not safe bets to fill the gap Djokovic’s absence would leave, and, for the sake of this article, are removed from the draw.
With Federer missing from the draw, along with the other ‘Big Four’ members, the potential would be there for one of the current ‘young gun’ generation of Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov to break through.
A breakthrough the tennis world has been waiting for some time to happen. None of them have won an ATP 1000 yet. The closet they have got was when Nishikori led Nadal by a set and a break in the Madrid 2014 final before he was forced to retire injured. Raonic has also represented them in an ATP 1000 final when he beat Federer on his way to the Paris-Bercy final last year, but he was soundly beaten by Djokovic in the championship match.
Nishikori and Raonic are in the same quarter of the draw of the Miami Open, but with Djokovic ‘withdrawing’, we put Nishikori, the highest ranked player in the draw after Djokovic, Nadal and Murray, in the Serbian’s spot, and Raonic, ranked six, as the number two seed at the bottom of the draw.
Nishikori replacing Djokovic would be fitting. Nishikori and Djokovic, with their aggressive baseline games and athleticism, have a lot in common.
The Japanese would likely sail through Djokovic’s part of the draw, and meet Ferrer in the last eight. That match could go either way, in Nishikori’s current form. The Japanese recently lost to Ferrer in straight sets in the Acapulco final, despite being a nightmare match up for the Spaniard, the 2013 Miami runner-up.
Nishikori is the better player in this match up, however, and so, in this imaginary draw, goes through.
The Japense would face, in the ideal ‘ young gun generation’ scenario, Grigor Dimitrov in the last four. Nishikori leads that head to head 2-0, with both wins coming on hard in straight sets (Shanghai ’13, Miami ’14), and the Japanese, like Djokovic is a nightmare match up for Dimitrov.
Nishikori’s length from the baseline and variety of ground strokes keep Dimitrov beyond the baseline, running side to side and open up the court. As if that were not bad enough for Dimitrov, Nishikori’s speed and passing shots get the better of Dimitrov when he does get control of the ball and approaches the net. Nishikori has a fierce return, too, and if Dimitrov is off his serve, he is in trouble.
So, Nishikori would make the final, beating Dimitrov in straights.
In the bottom half, Raonic would face Berdych in the last eight. Raonic leads this head to head 3-1 with all their matches played on hard courts. Raonic’s serve trumps the Czech, he saves break points more easily, and the slow surface would allow him to return better, too, and go for winners on his ground-strokes. The Raonic-Berdych quarter-final would go three sets with the Canadian just edging the Czech.
In the semis, Raonic would face Wawrinka. Wawrinka leads him 4-0, and beat him in two tiebreak sets in Rotterdam this year. But just as Raonic overturned a 0-5 head to head deficit with Nadal in Indian Wells last week, he has a chance against Wawrinka who went out early in Indian Wells, has never made it past the last 16 in Miami and has a 6-6 career win-loss record at the event. Raonic meanwhile has already made a quarter-final, in 2014 when he took Nadal to three sets, and is 5-2 lifetime at the tournament.
In the final, Nishikori and Raonic would deliver a worthy contest. Nishikori leads the head to head 5-2, but each match has been close with three of the three setters going the distance, their 2014 U.S Open going five sets, and their recent Davis Cup match going five sets on hard.
Nishikori versus Raonic is an entertaining contest to catch. It is a classic clash of styles- Raonic’s big serve and risky, explosive ground strokes up against Nishikori’s baseline aggression and return game. It could very well be the final of the future, too, with these two ranked 5 and 6 and aged 25 (Nishikori) and 23 (Raonic).
Right now, Nishikori would most likely win on a slower surface like Miami where his return game could make the difference. Raonic tends to throw in the odd off service game now and then, and his own return game is still a work in progress.
The Japanese also has the greater variety which benefits him on a surface where he has plenty of time to select his shots.
Right now, though, with Djokovic and Federer still winning the majority of slams and ATP 1000s, Nishikori and Raonic are not regularly competing in big finals. With Djokovic not likely to decline anytime soon, and Federer maximizing his attacking game to save miles on the clock, Nishikori and Raonic will have to get past those two if they want to start competing for big titles.
That time will come when Raonic and Nishikori do contest each other for the game’s big titles, but it would sent a jolt through the tennis world if it happened sooner rather than later. With the winners of events currently a touch predictable, the sport could do with some breakthroughs like it had last year with Wawrinka and Cilic.
If Raonic and Nishikori can tap into something in the near future, that touch of inspiration that will get them through a big match against the big four in the later stages of big events,like Nishikori had against Djokovic at the U.S Open, their presence in the finals and on the winner’s podium would be, for the neutral spectators, a very welcome surprise.
Watch the Brisbane 2015 match between Kei Nishikori and Milos Raonic below.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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