The Miami Open final will be contested between top seed and defending champion Novak Djokovic and two time champion and fourth seed Andy Murray. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
Andy Murray has been doing a lot of things right in 2015- reaching slam finals, climbing the rankings (he started the year ranked no.6 and will be ranked no.3 next week), making another Miami final (his fourth).
There is one thing, though, that he has not been able to do right, and that is beat Novak Djokovic. It was the world No.1 who stopped him in the Australian Open final, and in the Indian Wells semi-finals, too. With not too much difficulty either.
True, Murray did push the 8 time slam champion in the first two sets of the Australian Open, but he went away in sets three and four, and at Indian Wells, the Scot had no say in matters at all, and was blasted off the court by the Serb.
It has not just been this year that Djokovic has dominated Murray, either. The world no. 1 beat him four times in 2014, dropping just one set. That makes six consecutive wins, and Djokovic now leads the head to head 17-8, a head to head that was, back in September 2012, after Murray beat Djokovic for the U.S Open title, much closer, with the Serb leading 8-7.
Murray’s chances of cutting the deficit tomorrow in Miami are slim. Djokovic has struggled in Miami, dropping sets to Klizan and Dologopolov, and coming from a break down in the first set against Ferrer, but he pulled his game together brilliantly against an in-form John Isner, edging the American in a first set tiebreak and then taking control of the match and running away with the second set 6-2.
Murray cruised past Donald Young in the second round but, like Djokovic has struggled, dropping sets to Thiem and Anderson. He did, though, break down Berdych’s game in the semi-finals, but he has the upper hand over Berdych in big matches, and the slow courts played into his hands, too.
Murray, unlike Djokovic, has not really faced an opponent who actually had a strong chance to beat him. Isner had knocked out Dimitrov, Raonic and Nishikori, and is always a handful for Djokovic, but the Serbian was mentally tough and put in one of his most dominant displays against the 22nd seed.
The Serbian is likely to do the same against Murray in the Miami final. The two may be separated by only two spots in the rankings,but they are, right now anyway, a gulf apart when it comes to confidence and mental toughness.
Murray may be no. 3 next week, but he has not won higher than an ATP 500 title the past year and has only managed top ten wins against Berdych (twice), Raonic, Tsonga, Cilic and Ferrer. Djokovic, meanwhile has two slams, the WTF and four ATP 1000 titles on his past year’s resume, and has 23 wins over top ten players, losing only 4 times, to Nadal once and Federer three times.
That gulf between them is likely to be played out on the court tomorrow. While the two are similar in that they can both play great defense, attack and defend with their backhands, have great return games, and are two of the fittest players on the ATP, Djokovic has the better game of turning defense into offense and has no weaknesses, while Murray tends to play passively when things get tough against Djokovic and his second service can be a liability against the game’s best returner.
Murray may be doing a lot right in 2015, but he still has some things to put right before he is going to notch up another win against Djokovic. He has to sort out that second serve, and sort out his mental game, too. Until he does that, and there has been nothing to show us this week in Miami that he has done so, then Djokovic is going to keep on extending that head to head lead, and, more importantly for the world No. 1, extend his lead at the top of the rankings, and expand his ever-growing collection of ATP 1000 titles.
Prediction: Djokovic to win in straight sets.
Commentary by Christian Deverille @thetennisreview
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