The Season’s first Clay ATP 1000 tournament kicks off in Monte Carlo on Monday. The event will answer five questions about ATP players and the state of their games.
Is Novak Djokovic going to be burned out, once more, by his Indian Wells-Miami Double?
In 2013, Djokovic became only the second player to beat Rafael Nadal, the then recently crowned Indian Wells champion, at the Monte Carlo Open. That same season, Djokovic had gone out in the semi-finals of Indian Wells and the last sixteen of Miami, but those early defeats may have contributed to his one and only Monte Carlo title.
In 2011, when Djokovic won the Indian Wells- Miami double, he skipped Monte-Carlo with a knee injury. Having won the first 24 matches of the year on hard courts, it is not difficult to see why his knees may have been in need of rest.
When Djokovic did the double in 2014, he had to withdraw with injury in his semi-final, the weeks ‘rest’ between winning 12 consecutive matches in the brutal conditions of the Californian Desert and the Miami sub-tropics not being quite enough.
How will his health and fitness stand up in 2015 after another successful but no-doubt exhausting run? We will find out in Monte Carlo. Djokovic has a fairly comfortable draw until his projected semi-final with Rafael Nadal, who while may be slumping, could come alive again on the red clay.
That match, if it happens, will answer questions about both Djokovic and the Spaniard.
Is Nadal’s slump something more serious?
Nadal came back from injury in 2014 at arguably his worst period of the season- the autumn indoor hard court run. The Australian Open and Spring North American Swing have never been his strongest periods either, winning only 1 Australian Open title, and while he has 3 Indian Wells titles, he has never won in Miami.
So, while his results since coming back- he is 19-8 since Beijing 2014 and has lost to 3 players ranked out of the top 50-are not stellar, he still has a title, a grand slam quarter final and an ATP 1000 semi on his record in arguable his worst stretch of the season.
Now, we enter his strongest part- the red clay, and a tournament where he has won eight titles. Nadal has already won a clay title this year- the ATP 250 Buenos Aires Open- and though Monte Carlo has a far stronger field, he is still, as the reigning French Open and Madrid Champion, the man to beat.
The world no. 5 has talked of how low his confidence is right now, but such talk should not be paid much attention to. Nadal is a master of spin of the court as much as he is on it, and talk of low confidence could be as much a part of his 2015 French Open strategy as sending loopy ground-strokes the way of Federer’s backhand. The Spaniard was also suffering confidence wise when he lost to Ferrer and Amalgro last season on clay only to win his ninth French Open title.
We will find out just how low on confidence he is in Monte Carlo if he gets to a semi-final meeting with Djokovic. First he may have to get past Dominic Thiem who has a great game for clay, the dangerous John Isner, and his 2014 conqueror David Ferrer at the same stage he lost to him last year, the quarters.
If he can win that match, and then beat Djokovic, the man most likely to beat him in Paris, that will put doubts into Djokovic’s mind that he can really complete the career grand slam. Monte Carlo is the tournament most like the French surface wise, and a title there would put some wind back into the Nadal sails as he attempts to claim a historic 10th French Open title
Can David Goffin Get His 2015 Going Again on Clay?
Goffin was the King of Challengers and ATP 250s in the second half of 2014. Post Wimbledon, ranked 106 at the Poznan Challenger, he started a run which included four challenger titles, two ATP 250 titles in Kitzbuhel and Metz, a quarter final as a qualifier in Winston Salem and a last 32 finish at the U.S Open.
When he entered the ATP 500 Swiss Indoors Open and made the final, he moved up to 22 in the rankings and had shown he had what it takes to compete in the upper tiers of the ATP Tour.
Since then, in 2015, he has stagnated a little. He started the year well, making the semis of Chennai, but was knocked out in the second round of the Australian Open and had to retire with injury in the last 32 of Marseilles. That injury forced him out of Indian Wells, and though he made the last 16 of Miami, he was soundly beaten by Nishikori.
Red Clay may be just what Goffin needs to kick start his 2015. The 24 year old broke through at the 2012 French Open when he took a set off Roger Federer in the last sixteen as a lucky loser.
The Belgian has a nice draw. He has a qualifier in round one, a second round with a just-coming-back Tsonga or Querrey, and eighth seed and rusty Marin Cilic is seeded for the last sixteen in his section of the draw.
Is Stan Wawrinka really over his post maiden Slam slump?
Last year Stan Wawrinka finally stepped stepped of his compatriot Roger Federer’s shadow when he won the Australian Open and then went on to beat Federer in the Monte Carlo Open final.
That first clay court ATP 1000 title was Wawrinka’s last great moment of 2014 as the Swiss went 16-12 until he made the semi-finals at the WTF.
He started 2015 well, winning in Chennai, but put in an error prone performance defending his Australian Open title, losing the fifth set of his semi-final to Djokovic 0-6. And while he won in Rotterdam, he suffered upsets in Marseilles (Stakhovsky), Indian Wells (Hasse) and Miami (Mannarino).
Wawrinka has always been a streaky player, but he is, as his Monte Carlo title, 2008 Italian Open runner-up finish, and 20-10 record at Roland Garros show, a very capable Clay courter, and if he fails to string together some good results this Clay season, what looked like a career recovery but just have been a temporary resurrection.
Does Federer believe he can win at Roland Garros?
Federer recently stated he wanted another slam, and he wanted it at Wimbledon. But what about the French?
Federer is arguably the second best Clay courter of the last decade, and while he clearly believes he has another slam in him, does he believe it could come at the French?
If he does, Monte Carlo is going to be a great place to show it. Federer has a tough draw in Monte Carlo, where he is defending runner up points. He could possibly face his 2014 Italian Open conqueror Jeremy Chardy in round two, the man who led him two sets to love in the U.S Open last eight, Gael Monfils, in round four, and Wawrinka in the last eight. That is about as hard as the first three rounds can get at an ATP 1000.
If Federer wants to make a successful campaign for Roland Garros, with an out of sorts Nadal, and a possibly tired Djokovic in the draw, this is a great place to start.
The question is does he believe he has a second Roland Garros title in him? If he can fight past this tough draw and take the title, the answer will be ‘Yes’.
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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