Novak Djokovic’s decision to skip the ATP 1000 Madrid Open was the right one to make. The Tennis Review looks at why the season’s fourth ATP 1000 event will not be a stop on the world No 1’s schedule.
The conditions.
Madrid is 667 m above sea level compared to Paris which is 28 to 130 m. That means the balls fly faster through the air, the serve is as much, if not more, a weapon as the return, and aggressive tennis is better rewarded than in Paris, Rome or Monte Carlo.
Those conditions have helped Roger Federer win three times, Rafael Nadal three times and Djokovic only once. It is also the ATP clay event where Nadal has struggled the most – he has suffered two straight sets defeats in finals there and an exit in 2012 in the last sixteen. Djokovic has also been upset there early, too, losing to Tipsarevic in 2012 and Dimitrov in 2013.
Timing
The Madrid final, which Dokovic would very likely contest, takes place the day before Rome starts. Djokovic would have to play ten matches in fourteen days if he were to reach both finals and then have a rest week before the big one in Paris.
In 2011, the only year Djokovic has made the finals of both Madrid and Rome, and won them both, the Serbian suffered a surprise defeat to Roger Federer in the Roland Garros semi-finals.
While Djokovic may be the fittest player on tour, back to back ATP 1000 tournaments finishing a week before the French Open might be too much even for him with another six matches to go before attempting one of tennis’ most elusive feats – beating Rafael Nadal in best of five in Paris.
Djokovic is also a five time Australian Open champion, the Slam with the shortest lead-up, and knows how to compensate for minimal match play with training.
Confidence.
2011 is the only season Djokovic has made the Madrid final. Since 2009, he has made a semi-final (2009), a quarter-final (2012), lost his opening match (2013) and not played twice (2010, 2014).
While Djokovic would likely make the final, he could be vulnerable, particularly to Roger Federer who has sprung two straight sets defeats on him on faster surfaces in the last seven months (Shanghai, Dubai) and could likely repeat that feat on a faster than usual clay court.
That defeat, or any defeat, would put a dent into the confidence Djokovic has built up winning The Australian Open, Indian Well, Miami and Monte Carlo this season, becoming the first man in history to do so.
Those surfaces, all medium- slow to slow, suit the Djokovic game, much like Rome and Roland Garros, and if he can enter The French Open with Rome on his resume too, his chances of his first French Open will be high.
However if he goes in with a defeat in Madrid, an inspired opponent on a sunny day in Paris might fancy their chances, take them, and with it Djokovic’s hopes of a Career Grand Slam for another year.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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