Andy Murray’s 6-3, 6-2 defeat of Rafael Nadal in the Madrid ATP 1000 final was an impressive surprise. The Scot had never made an ATP 1000 Clay final, had only won his first career clay title this very same week, on Monday in Munich, and inflicted on Nadal arguably the heaviest clay final defeat of his career.
The win is Murray’s ninth in a row on clay and comes on the back of a convincing performance against Kei Nishikori in the semi-finals. Murray never had to scale those same heights in his win over Nadal- the Spaniard hit 26 errors in the 17 game contest– but did what he does best- just enough to get the job done, and what a fine job he did.
But while the win may be impressive and will look good on Murray’s resume (it is his tenth ATP 1000 win, his 33rd career title), the fact is it tells us very little about what will happen in two weeks time at the French Open.
Madrid’s high altitude and the surface’s faster pace means it does not serve well as a reliable indicator of what will go down in Paris. Nadal has won the title just four times since its inception in 2009, and has suffered heavy defeats to Roger Federer (2009) and Novak Djokovic (2011) in the final, and was upset by Fernando Verdasco in the fourth round in 2012.
The Spaniard was also a set and a break down to Nishikori in last year’s final before the Japanese got injured and had to retire in the final set.
Nishikori likes a faster court, as does three time winner Roger Federer, 2009 finalist Tomas Berdych, and 2013 runner up Stan Wawrinka. Murray is also a fan of faster surfaces- his two grand slam wins have come in London and New York and have been the scenes of his finest displays of aggression and touch, elements he showcased in his run to the Madrid title.
Murray, who earns 1000 ranking points for his efforts, will not mind Madrid serves as little more than a side show on the road to Paris. The tournament, the baby of Romanian Ion Tiriac, who so infamously made the surface blue in 2012, was once played in Hamburg where the altitude and court speed was similar to Paris. Murray went 3-3 in Hamburg from 2006-2008, but made the quarters in his first trip to Madrid in 2009, two more quarter finals and two fourth rounds before becoming only the fourth man to defeat Nadal in a Clay court final after Djokovic (x4), Federer (x2) and Zeballos.
That fact alone should boost Murray’s confidence as he enters Rome and then Paris. The Scot has done well in France, his athleticism and defensive skills serving him well, reaching the semi-finals twice and compiling a 23-7 record there. But as Nadal’s other Madrid conquerors have found, Nadal at Roland Garros over five sets is incomparable to the one beaten in Madrid over three. Nadal bounced back from Madrid defeats in 2011 and 2012 to take the Roland Garros title, comprehensively beating Federer and Djokovic in the finals.
In 2009, though, Roger Federer defeated Nadal 6-4, 6-4 in the final, and went on to win Roland Garros. However, the Swiss did not have to face Nadal, Robin Soderling taking care of that so sensationally in the fourth round. Should someone else do a Soderling in 2015, Murray could find himself in the final, and with the kind of clay court tennis he has been showing these past two weeks, and considering how Roland Garros brings out Djokovic’s nerves like nowhere else, the once unthinkable words ‘Andy Murray Roland Garros Champion’ could become a very impressive reality.
A very big ‘could’ it may be, but before today, it did not seem even a possibility.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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