The Rome ATP 1000 tournament is the last significant warm up to the French Open. The slow clay conditions will give a good indication of who will do well in Paris and the tournament, featuring the ‘Big Four’, will answer five important questions about the ATP Tour.
Does Federer have a serious shot at winning in Paris?
Federer has only made the finals at two Majors since winning the Australian Open in 2010- Wimbledon (2012, 2014) and Paris (2011). Since his 2011 run to the Paris final, Federer has gone SF, QF, 4R at the event.
If the pattern plays out, Federer could be going out in the last 32 in Paris in 2015. Considering he is 5-2 on Clay this year, is 1-2 at the ATP 1000 Clay events, and has only played one top twenty player on the surface so far (Gael Monfils, 18), a strong run in Paris is vital to Federer’s chances of winning Roland Garros.
The Rome draw has been kind. The first serious threat would be Tomas Berdych in the last eight, and Federer is 3-0 against him on Clay. Then, if the Spaniard gets that far, a struggling Nadal awaits. A win over Nadal on Clay before the French Open could be just the boost Federer needs.
Federer would be unlikely to beat Djokovic in the final, but a runner up finish in Rome would mean he would have a serious shot a making the Roland Garros final, and anything, with all the pressure Djokovic is under and in front of the Pro-Federer crowd, could happen in three Sundays time on Court Chatrier.
Just how much has Andy Murray really improved on Clay?
Winning back to back titles in Munich and Madrid was an impressive feat for Murray- he had never made a clay final before, let alone an ATP 1000.
Things in clay tennis also don’t get much better than beating Nadal, whatever his form, before his home crowd for your first Clay ATP 1000 title.
However, Murray’s Munich draw did not pit him against any serious threats until Kohlschrieber in the final, and Murray led him 3-1 before that match. Then, in Madrid, Murray may have put in his best ever clay display against Nishikori, but he did not have to produce anything special in his other matches, not even against Nadal who hit 26 errors in 17 games.
One or two impressive performances in a nine match run, for a man who has arguably played better in clay matches in Rome versus Nadal last year and at the same venue versus Djokovic in 2011, does not mean Murray is a better clay court player than before. Instead, it is more a testament to Murray’s experience, big match mentality, and overall consistency.
In Rome, though, Rome will be challenged from the get go. If the Scot has actually improved on the surface, then Rome will be the place we will really find out.
Up first is Jeremy Chardy, who upset Federer in last year’s Rome Opening round, and then could come either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or David Goffin, both of whom have had some of their career best results on Clay.
Murray would then likely have to get past Ferrer, Federer and Djokovic to take the title. If he can achieve that feat, then we can not only say he has really improved on Clay, but also that he is, for the first time in his career, a genuine contender at Roland Garros.
Is Djokovic starting to feel the pressure of being, for the first time, the real favorite at Roland Garros?
Djokovic has gone into Roland Garros before as a favorite, but never as The favorite like he will this year. Nadal’s crushing loss to Murray in the Madrid final has cemented Djokovic’s status even further, and Rome will be his last event before he tries, for the fourth consecutive year, to complete the Career Grand Slam with a win in Paris.
Djokovic has played some of his best clay tennis in Rome and has three titles there (2008, 2011, 2014). This season he enters the event in some of his strongest ever form- he has gone undefeated in ATP 1000 events in 2015, leads Roger Federer in the rankings by 5,200 points.
His great form has also coincided with the decline of his biggest threat in Paris, Rafael Nadal, slipping out of the ATP Rankings top five, to No.7, for the first time in a decade.
If ever Djokovic has been in the right place at the right time, it is now. Unfortunately, Roland Garros brings out the nerves in him greater than any other stop on the ATP Tour. If he is feeling them in the run up, we will see signs of it in Rome.
Signs his rivals will be on the lookout for.
Is Nadal really done?
In Monte Carlo, Nadal came up against a dominant Djokovic, in Barcelona he was undone by an opportunistic and inspired Fognini, and in Madrid a consistent Murray and 26 unforced errors from his own racket were his downfall.
That is three big defeats on clay in a row, and all in straight sets. The words ‘Nadal is Done‘ seem set to be graffitied all over Roland Garros, but no one should even think about buying a canister until Rome is over.
Nadal has suffered a lot these past few months, and openly, too. He has learned a lot of lessons, and if he is going to put them to use, he has to, and will, do it now- a defeat before the Rome final could see him fall out of the top eight, which would mean a meeting with a top four seed in Paris.
The slow clay courts of Rome, where Nadal has won the title seven times, could be the place where, if it ever going to happen, the Nadal comeback finally gathers steam.
Nadal could be tested as soon as the fourth round by the in-form John Isner, who pushed him to five sets at Roland Garros ’12. Stan Wawrinka is his scheduled last eight opponent, but the Swiss has under-performed this clay season. In the last four Nadal could face Roger Federer. The Spaniard has a huge mental edge over the Swiss on Clay, and that could be the match that makes or breaks him.
In the final, Nadal would likely face Djokovic, and likely lose. But he has lost to Djokovic twice in Rome (2011, 2014) and gone on to win in Paris, and a third defeat would be another valuable lesson in the most difficult course of Nadal’s career.
A course he can still come out on top of if he can make up some lost ground in Rome.
Who else is a threat to the Roland Garros title?
The ‘Big Four’ really are the big four when it comes to threats for the Roland Garros 2015 title. Nishikori is the only other player to have shown his credentials somewhat, though he disappointed in Madrid. No one else has really made an impression other than Berdych who had a great run in Monte Carlo, but who could not build in against Nadal in Madrid.
Wawrinka, Ferrer, and Dimitrov have underwhelmed, and Monfils started with a spark in Monte Carlo only to get sidelined by injury once more. Meanwhile, Nick Kyrgios, who showed what a great match player he was in Madrid against Federer, is already out in Rome, losing to Lopez.
Can Goffin, Thiem or Dolgopolov, three of the biggest talents in the Rome draw, show off their clay court skills in the final big warm up to Roland Garros?
Now is the time to showcase their skills and get some confidence on a big stage against the biggest names. In an underwhelming clay season, notable mainly for Nadal’s lack of wins, it is not too late for one of the lower ranked players to make a name for themselves as a Roland Garros dark horse and add a bit of excitement in the run up to the French Open.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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