Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer will compete for the 39th time in the 2015 ATP 1000 Rome final. The Tennis Review previews the contest and predicts the winner.
Head to head:
Roger Federer leads the head to head 20-18.
Federer leads the clay head to head 4-3.
Recent history:
Since Federer’s resurgence in 2014, the rivals are tied at 4-4 with Federer leading their head to head 1-0 on Clay (Monte Carlo ’14).
However, Djokovic leads 4-1 in finals and has won their biggest matches (Indian Wells ’14, ’15, Wimbledon ’14).
History in Rome:
Djokovic has won the title three times (2008, 2011, 2014), and has beaten Rafael Nadal in two finals. He has also been runner up twice, both times to Nadal (2009, 2012). Djokovic is 29-5 at the event, and has never lost before the quarter-finals.
Federer, meanwhile, has been to three finals (2003 L. Mantilla, 2006 L. Nadal, 2013 L. Nadal). He is 27-14 at the event and in his 14 visits has only made it to the quarter-finals and beyond six times.
Djokovic won their two encounters in Rome (2009, 2012)
2015 form:
Djokovic won the Australian Open, the first man to take the title five times in the Open era, and became the first man to ever win Indian Wells, Miami, and Monte Carlo in the same season.
He has suffered two losses- to Karlovic in Doha, and to Federer in Dubai.
Federer’s year has been a little bit patchy. He won in Brisbane but was upset by Seppi in Melbourne. He beat Djokovic to take the Dubai title, made the Indian Wells final,and then lost to Monfils in the last sixteen in Rome. He then won the title in Istanbul only to suffer an opening round defeat to Kyrgios in Madrid.
Form coming into the final:
Djokovic struggled in his first three matches against Amalgro, Bellucci and Nishikori, dropping the second set in all three matches, but took the third sets pretty comfortably. However, he had not played an ATP match on slow clay since Monte Carlo, and those three are also a pretty tough and experienced clay court group.
Djokovic’s semi-final win over Ferrer was more impressive- a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Federer has improved as the week has gone on. He has beaten Cuevas, Anderson, Berdych and Wawrinka in straight sets. He dropped just six games to Berdych, and came back from 0-3 in the first set to beat Wawrinka 6-4, 6-2, winning 20 points in a row at one stage.
Prediction:
Federer has not looked so good on slow clay for a while, seems to have a good balance between attack and defence, and goes into the final with confidence and good rhythm.
Djokovic, on the other hand, has possibly played his worst tennis of the season this week. However, he did look more focused in the semi-finals, and he will go into the final as the favorite.
Djokovic is the better slow court player of the two, and he and Federer have been splitting the faster surfaces matches and the slow court ones between them, with the exception of last year’s Monte Carlo, which Djokovic was injured in, and Wimbledon, which Federer very nearly won.
Djokovic also has been the better player in finals, and is almost unstoppable in ATP 1000 finals, winning the last ten he has competed in. Federer was the last man to beat him in one, at Cincinnati 2012.
Djokovic seems to have the edge in too many categories- history at the event, recent form, form in ATP finals, recent head to head over Federer on slower surfaces and in finals- to look beyond the world No.1 as the winner.
Djokovic to win in three sets.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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