The match tennis fans have been waiting for at this year’s Roland Garros has arrived- the quarter-final between world No.1 Novak Djokovic and nine time French Open champion Rafael Nadal. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
What”s at stake:
What makes this match so intriguing is what is at stake. Novak Djokovic, in arguably his best ever career form, will try for the fourth consecutive year to complete the Career Grand Slam, while Nadal, ranked no. 7, his lowest ranking for over a decade, will try and get his career back on track and also win a historic tenth Roland Garros, becoming the first player to win ten singles titles at a slam.
Head to head: Nadal leads 23-20 career, 6-0 at Roland Garros, 14-5 on clay.
Rafael Nadal has stopped Djokovic the last three years at Roland Garros. However, those matches have not been easy. In 2012, Nadal dropped the third set 2-6 as Djokovic thrived on the damp c0nditions and heavier balls, and the Spaniard was saved by the match being delayed until the following day. In 2013, Djokovic lead by a break in the fifth set before a bad decision a the net (Djokovic touched it before the ball bounced on the other side) distracted the then No.1 seed.
But while Nadal has Djokovic’s number at Roland Garros, Djokiovic has inflicted five clay defeats on the Spaniard, more than any player, and has beaten him in each of the three ATP 1000 Clay finals (Monte Carlo 2012, Rome 2011, 2014, Madrid, 2011).
Djokovic also convincingly beat Nadal the last time they met on clay, a straight sets win in the Monte-Carlo semi-finals.
Form coming into the quarter-final:
Djokovic has kept up his stellar 2015 form and breezed through a very kind draw, notching up his 26 th consecutive win on his way, and not dropping a set. Nadal has also been impressive, dropping only one set to Jack Sock in the fourth round, proving that it is one thing to beat him at ATP 1000 and 500 events, but a quite different task at Roland Garros.
Neither man though has had to face a ‘problem’ opponent, like an Isner. This will hurt Nadal more as he has struggled all year to beat the top players in the middle and later stages of events while Djokovic has been beaten only twice (Karlovic, Doha, Federer, Dubai), and has had no issues stepping up a level against the top ten.
Match up:
Djokovic matches up well to Nadal on Clay.He can defend against Nadal’s weapon, the forehand, and his back hand down the line can take Nadal off balance and help him dictate matches. He also has a return of serve to make Nadal pay for anything less than stellar serving.
This match, though, is not so much about the physical game, but the mental one. Nadal is a very different beast at Roland Garros to other events, and has beaten Djokovic there in other years when he has been far from his best (2012, 2014). Djokovic, just as he has had in those years, will have all the pressure on him to get the career slam done while he is at his peak, and how he deals with that pressure and the presence of Nadal on the other side of the net will decide the match.
Prediction:
It really feels like Djokovic’s year this season. The Serb has been playing at a level or two above everyone else while Nadal has been well below his best, failing to win a single European Clay court event. Of course we have said it is Djokovic’s year to win Roland Garros many times over, but Djokovic will never get a better shot than now, and he is playing the kind of tennis to allow him to finally find his target, a first Roland Garros title.
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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