This year’s French Open quarter-finals features an impressive line-up- seven of the top eight seeds, and a former semi-finalist. The Tennis Review previews three of the matches and predicts the winners.
Roger Federer (2) versus Stan Wawrinka (8)
Wawrinka has beaten Federer in big matches on clay- in the 2014 Monte Carlo final and at the 2008 Italian Open- but has only managed to win one set in their four Grand Slam meetings (Wimbledon 2014). Wawrinka also underperformed in his last clash with Federer, on clay a few weeks ago in Rome.
Federer overcame his biggest hurdle of the French Open so far, Gael Monfils, who had won the rival’s last two clay court matches, in the fourth round. The world No.2 won the last two sets convincingly, bringing his best game when the pressure was on. Meanwhile Wawrinka brushed aside Gilles Simon in straight sets, a match that could not have contrasted more with their five set 2012 battle in Paris.
Prediction: Federer, the Rome 2015 runner up. is in the much better form of the two, and knows that this is a great opportunity for him to reach his first Roland Garros final since 2011. He also knows the pressure Djokovic, who he beat so convincingly at the French Open in 2011 when the Serbian was in career top form, will be under should he face him for the title. Federer is not going to let that opportunity slip and should get past Wawrinka in straight sets.
Andy Murray (3) versus David Ferrer (7).
The general consensus in the tennis world right now is that Andy Murray is playing his best ever clay court tennis. However, not everyone is convinced- Madrid is a faster clay court than others, Munich is an ATP 250, and Murray has played just as well on Clay, if not better, in 2009, 2011, and arguably last season.
Murray’s upcoming quarter-final with David Ferrer will really tell us if he is better on Clay now than in other years. The Spaniard has beaten Murray 4 times on Clay, including the last time they met at Roland Garros in 2012. That year Ferrer made the final, his greatest achievement on a surface he has excelled on.
Going into the quarter-final, Ferrer has won more slow clay court matches (8-3) than Murray at ATP 500 and above level in 2015, and won the ATP 250 clay event in Rio. Murray meanwhile won one match on slow clay pre-Roland Garros, which means he is at some disadvantage against a man who thrives on slow clay conditions.
Ferrer has been impressive moving through the draw, dismantling Cilic in the last sixteen and dropping one game in sets four and five against Bolleli in round three. In the 12 sets he has won, he has dropped four games only once, in the last set of his match versus Cilic.
Murray, meanwhile, has dropped two sets (Sousa, Chardy), but has not had to respond to any real challenge yet. He will have to do that, though, versus Ferrer.
Prediction: Ferrer to win in five sets.
Kei Nishikori (5) Versus Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (14).
This is Nishikori’s first French Open quarter-final, and he has done it with the minimum amount of fuss, winning his three matches in straight sets (received a bye into round four after Benjamin Becker’s withdrawal). The Japanese, who is now the first Japanese man to reach the last eight at all four Grand Slams, had had a mixed clay court season coming into Roland Garros, winning the ATP 500 Barcelona Open then under-performing versus Murray in Madrid, but has pulled his game together when it counts.
The low profile Nishikori has assumed waltzing through the Roland Garros draw is about to come to an end, however, when he takes on Tsonga. The Frenchman has always raised his game in Paris, and did it again in the fourth round, breaking down the Berdych game. He will do it against Nishikori, too. While Nishikori leads Tsonga 4-1, all four of those wins have gone the distance, and Tsonga dropped just six games in the match he won.
The two have never met on Clay, and on their first meeting, the Frenchman has the advantage of the more inspired form, and the home crowd. The Frenchman is also a streaky player, see his 2014 Toronto run for the last example of that quality, and is definitely on one of his streaks now, playing explosive and beautiful tennis. If Nishikori is to win, he will have to mix up his solid brand of tennis with his best shot-making, but even that might not be enough against an inspired Tsonga.
Prediction: Tsonga to win in four sets,
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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