Roger Federer will play his 15th US Open this season, a tournament he has won five times (2004-2008). The Swiss’ effective serving, all court game and shot making are still his strongest assets and we know he is more than able to win the title, the question is can he do it seven seasons after his last win there, at the age of 34? The Tennis Review looks at the factors affecting the world no.2’s chances of winning that elusive 18th slam in New York this Summer.
Preparation
Federer will certainly help his 2015 US Open chances by winning Cincinnati, and a win over Djokovic in that final would both be great for Federer’s confidence and help lessen the mental edge the world no.1 has over him in ATP finals since the start of ’14 (Djokovic leads 6-1).
Should the two meet in the US Open final, Federer’s chances increase if he can draw upon a recent Cincinnati win where the conditions are more similar to the season’s final slam than anywhere else on the ATP tour.
History
Federer will also have the confidence that should come with having lifted the trophy at Flushing Meadow five times, finishing runner up once (2009), and making three semi-finals (2010, 2011, 2014).
The fact is, though, that six seasons have passed since he won his last title at Flushing Meadows. Since then he has been beaten by young powerful opponents peaking (del Potro ’09, Cilic ’14), a troublesome match up (Berdych ’12), a smart player taking advantage of his poor form (Robredo ’13) and one of his greatest rivals doing what he does best, fighting to the very end (Djokovic ’10, ’11).
Playing style
Since that 2008 trophy, Federer has declined in speed, sharpness on his forehand, and consistency on his backhand, and his opponents have taken advantage of that.
While Federer has taken measures to compensate by adopting first strike aggressive tennis, the fact is that he is still vulnerable to other more powerful and faster aggressive players, and to his more defensive minded rivals. Federer, unlike in his peak years of 2003-2009, is no longer assured of being the best player on the day, and lacks the defensive game to wear down a red-lining opponent or outlast one of the tour’s grinders.
The draw
For Federer to win another slam, his first since Wimbledon ’12, he is not only dependent on his own play, but also on his opponents.
This year Federer would need a kind draw, one which removed Berdych, Cilic, Nadal and Tsonga from his half, one which took care of Djokovic on the other half, and which did not put in his path any streaky players having a career best day such as Gulbis. Federer may be able to get past one of them, but two or three might be pushing it.
Peak performance.
The bottom line is that Federer has to play at his very best, hitting 65 plus percent of first serves in, keeping a winner error ratio of at least 3 to 1, and hold firm on the big points. And he has to do that seven matches in a row unless one of his opponents chokes or has a bad day.
Luck
Seven matches in a row- Federer has not been able to do that for the last 12 slams. The chances of winning six this US Open are good – check out his Wimbledon run this year– but he just needs a huge stroke of luck to win the seventh and get across that 18th slam finish line.
Even one stroke of luck, however, might not be enough. Last year, for instance, Federer got lucky when Djokovic was upset in the semi-finals and Nishikori made his first Slam final. For many, Federer’s 18th Slam looked a sure thing, however it was not to be as Federer was unlucky to face a peaking Cilic.
Luck, fortunately for Federer, favours the brave and the hard working. Playing risk taking tennis at the age of 34 certainly qualifies Federer for some this upcoming US Open, the question is will just one stroke be enough?
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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