Roger Federer Cincinnati 2015 Who Can Stop Him?

Roger Federer will be aiming to break his own record of most ATP 1000 titles won at the same event when he goes for his Seventh Cincinnati Western and Southern Open title this week. The Tennis Review looks at which of his rivals is most likely to stop him.

Rafael Nadal

Federer has not met his nemesis since the Australian Open 2014 semi- finals when Nadal grabbed his ninth hard court win over Federer (leads the Series 9-6).

One of those wins came in Cincinnati in 2013. Back then Nadal was on his way back to world no.1 and in perhaps his greatest ever hard court form while Federer was falling down the rankings, suffering with a back injury and getting used to his new racket.

Now the roles are somewhat reversed. Nadal is the one sliding down the rankings and that forehand that was so strong back in Summer 2013 is now falling too short and the serve that was so effective is much less so. Meanwhile Federer, who says he is playing better than he was a decade ago, is used to that now year-old racket and using it to great effect, executing an aggressive game that last year helped him lift a record sixth Cincinnati title and challenge for the No.1 ranking.

Should this contest happen this year, Federer would be the favourite, but Nadal has shown he gets in Federer’s head better than anyone, and if he can raise his game, and you have to think he is going to at some point, he could get under Federer’s skin and grab a tenth hard court win and a 22^nd overall.

Marin Cilic

When Novak Djokovic lost in last year’s US Open semi-finals to Kei Nishikori, Federer’s run to an 18^th Slam title looked as assured as things get in tennis. The recently returned to the tour Marin Cilic, who he led 5-0 in their head to head, was waiting for him in the semi-final, and the slam final debutante Kei Nishikori was standing between him and the trophy.

Cilic, though, had other ideas about Federer’s 18^th Slam, surprising many a pundit by beating Federer in straight sets on his way to his first Major.

The two could meet again in the last four at the Western and Southern Open this week. This time Cilic is once again on a comeback trail, not from a ban from the tour however, but from a shoulder injury which kept him out of the Australian Open and saw him go without three consecutive match wins from last year’s WTF until he reached the French Open fourth round this Summer. A month later, he went on to reach the quarter-finals of Wimbledon.

Cilic’s much improved serve, huge ground-strokes and underrated defence will pose a big challenge to Federer once again in Cincinnati, but Federer will benefit from being the much better best-of-three player. (Cilic has never made an ATP 1000 semi final yet has made four Slam quarter-finals, a semi-final and won a title).

Andy Murray

Back at world No.2, and last week’s Canadian Open winner, beating Novak Djokovic for the first time in nine matches, Murray is a force to be reckoned with on fast hard courts.

Murray led Federer in their head to head before his surgery, but now trails it 11-13 overall and 10-11 on hard courts including a defeat in the quarter-finals of last year’s Cincinnati Open.

Murray earned his first win over Federer in the Swiss’ peak years at Cincinnati in 2006. The Scot’s defence means he can chase down Federer’s flatter shots and his counter punching skills mean he can send them back with too much interest for Federer to do much with. Those strengths could trouble Federer this week, as could Murray’s more aggressive approach on faster courts.

With Murray back at his medium fast court peak, and his recent Montreal run means he is also match fit, this potential contest would decide not only who will be the US Open Second Seed but also consign one of them to second best on fast courts right now.

Novak Djokovic

Before losing to Murray in last week’s Montréal final, the last time Djokovic lost an ATP 1000 final was to Roger Federer in Cincinnati in 2012, losing the match 6-0, 7-6.

Since then Djokovic has beaten Federer in three ATP finals (Indian Wells’14, ’15, Rome ’15) and two slam finals (Wimbledon ’14, ’15), but Federer has beaten the world no.1 in the matches they have played on the tour fastest surfaces (Shanghai ’14, Dubai ’15).

If the two meet in the final, we have to presume Djokovic is not suffering with an arm injury- it is hard to see even him being superhuman enough to reach two ATP 1000 finals in a row injured. However, another final appearance will not be a sign that his form has necessarily improved from Montréal where he managed to, despite patchy play, make the final, an achievement we can put down to both his fighting qualities and his opponent’s inabilities to exploit his poor form.

If Djokovic’s form has improved, he will be hard to beat in the final and will be motivated by three things – the fact he has not won a North American hard court event since Canada 2012, Cincinnati is the one ATP 1000 trophy missing from his cabinet, and he wants to go into the US Open with a confidence boosting warm up title.

Federer might be too much for Djokovic in the final though. The Swiss will likely have had to negotiate a tough draw and will be sharp. He will need to be even sharper to take a record seventh title against Djokovic, but few serves, shots and wills are sharper than Federer’s.

Order of probability to defeat Federer.

Murray. He is the worst match up right now for Federer on the surface and is in great form. If he gets to Federer in the semis then he might be able to take advantage of Federer’s lack of match play.

Djokovic. The world no.1 has a dominant head to head over the Swiss in recent finals (6-1 since 2013) and even though he would be playing on his worst surface, it is still a surface he has beaten Federer on in tight matches at the US Open, and if he could push Federer to three sets, his chances of winning improve greatly.

Cilic: If he dials into his A game again then Federer will have to serve at his very best.

Nadal: Federer’s nemesis may be well below his peak but this match up, on anything other than indoor courts, is about what goes on in the head rather than what form they are in leading into the match. Federer, though, is much more aggressive than he was the last time these two played and it will be interesting to see how Nadal deals with a Federer committed to all out aggression over a whole match and not just until he gets put off by winning passing shots flying past him.

Ultimately, Federer is going to be tough to beat and if he keeps his first serve at above 65% and executes his attacking strategy to its full potential he has to be the favorite to win a Seventh Cincinnati title.

Commentary by Christian Deverille.

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