Top seed Novak Djokovic and second seed Roger Federer will meet in the 2015 Cincinnati final in what will be a high stakes encounter. For Djokovic, a first Cincinnati title and the only missing title in his ATP 1000 collection is on the line while for Federer the US Open No.2 seeded position is on his racket. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
Head to head:
These two are equal at 20-20. Djokovic has the recent lead though, going 6-4 since Federer’s return to form in 2014.
All 6 of those wins have come in finals (Wimbledon ’14, ’15, Indian Wells ’14, ’15, WTF ’14, Rome ’15) while Federer has one final win (Dubai ’15) and three semi-finals (Dubai ’14 Monte-Carlo ’14, Shanghai ’14).
Those Federer wins are the most telling when it comes to predicting the outcome of this season’s Cincinnati final – three of Federer’s wins have come on the tour’s fastest surfaces in Shanghai and Dubai and the last two were won in straight sets.
History in Cincinnati.
Djokovic’s last loss in an ATP 1000 final before he lost last week in Montreal to Murray came at the hands of Federer in the 2012 final, a match in which he only managed to win six games. Federer also beat Djokovic for the 2009 trophy.
Federer has won six titles in Cincinnati, the most of any player in ATP history, while Djokovic has never managed to win there.
What is at stake:
Djokovic has a chance to become the first man to win all nine ATP 1000 titles (formally known as Masters). He would also get a confidence boost with a win over the tour’s best fast court player before the US Open, a slam he has not win since his sole title in 2011.
Federer could grab back the ATP world No.2 spot and the second seed at the US Open. That would make his run at an 18th slam title a little easier, sparing him from meeting his nemesis Djokovic until the final, and with Djokovic’s struggles recently, the Serbian might not even make it there to face him, which would increase Federer’s chances greatly.
Form coming in:
The world No.1 may be winning more than he is losing this US Open Series, but he is struggling. Djokovic lost his first ATP 1000 final since Cincinnati ’12 in Montreal last week to Murray, a player he had not lost to in eight matches.
This week he was 0-3 down in the third set versus David Goffin in the fourth round, and went three sets versus Alexandr Dolgopolov in the semis.
The world No.1 was impressive against Stan Wawrinka though, losing just five games, but Wawrinka struggles on outdoor fast courts and the win means little for the final.
Federer has been in formidable form. While he may not have been challenged much – he has never lost to Anderson or Lopez and has beaten Murray now in their last five matches- he beat them, particularly Murray who played well, in great style.
Against Murray, Federer’s first serve percentage may have dropped to 55, his first and second serves won were 77% and 79% and he never faced a break point. His ground and net game were also impressive –Federer hit 26 winners to 23 errors and he won 13 points at the net from 18 attempts.
The Favorite:
Officially, it is Djokovic. He has the recent winning head to head versus Federer and is the world No.1.
However, unofficially, it has to be Federer. While the situation was similar back at Wimbledon, it was on the condition Federer won in three or four sets. Once Djokovic led two sets to one it was all over for the Swiss and Djokovic won because he is the better best of five sets player of late, and the grass courts in the second week are a touch slower than the tour’s faster courts.
In Cincinnati, however, the courts are some of the ATP’s fastest. Federer’s forehand is hitting through them, his serve is almost unreturnable at times and too well-placed at others, thus negating Djokovic’s strength, his return, and his aggressive approach on the return and in rallies is paying dividends.
Against Djokovic on fast courts, as we saw in Dubai ’14 and ’15 and Shanghai ’15, that game style, if Federer executes it well, is too much for Djokovic to handle.
Djokovic can win if:
Djokovic has to keep his first and second serve winning percentages high, he has to be aggressive at the baseline, move inside the court, and his defence has to be optimum, too. To win, nothing less than Djokovic’s best will do.
Djokovic also has a chance if Federer is a touch below par as he has been now and then in big finals the past two years. If Federer’s level drops, Djokovic, the master of the waiting game, will pounce and take it to a third set where he will have worked himself into his groove, keeping Federer back as much as possible, and grinding out the win.
The likely winner:
Federer. Even if Djokovic does bring his best to the final, the surface favors Federer, the Swiss is well-rested, motivated and has just too much on the serve, on his shot-making and his net game, which even if the match is decided on tie-breakers, should make the crucial difference in this high stakes and highly-anticipated match.
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
Liked this article? Share it and help us get read.
Have something you would like to say? Get yourself heard in the comments box below.
Subscribe to our email list for all the latest posts straight to your in-box.
thetennisreview 
Leave a comment