Roger Federer, who was recently knocked off the ATP No.2 spot by long-term rival Andy Murray, has a great chance to get back that spot today. The two will meet in the Cincinnati Semi-finals to potentially decide who is the real No.2 on the tour and who will enter the US Open as the No.2 seed. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
Head to head:
Federer leads the head to head 13-11 and has an 11-9 lead on hard courts. Two of those wins came over Murray at Cincinnati (2014, 2009). Murray has one win over Federer in Cincinnati back in 2006.
Federer has won their last four matches (Australian Open 2014, Cincinnati 2014, WTF 2014, Wimbledon 2015). That Wimbledon win, which Murray came into in top form, was a resounding victory and Federer will enter this contest with the same focus and motivation.
History:
Federer has the record of Most ATP 1000 tournament victories at Cincinnati with six titles (2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2014). Murray has two titles (2008, 2011).
Form coming in:
Federer is playing the better tennis, but he has not been pushed. He thrashed Kevin Anderson 6-1, 6-1, and beat Feliciano Lopez in straights, two players he has a winning head to head over. However, this is not an unusual situation for Federer who, throughout his career, has sailed through early rounds of tournaments and then raised his game when asked to.
Murray has been in tournament winning form, taking last week’s title in Montreal in which he scored as first win over Novak Djokovic in nine matches. However, that run has tired him out and he has struggled this event. He had to save match point to defeat Grigor Dimitrov and come from a set down to beat Richard Gasquet, victories that resulted partly from his skill of hanging in when his opponents are playing their best, and his opponent’s failure to keep their best going until the finish line.
Favorite for the win:
Federer. The Swiss is the better fast court player. He is also more rested and playing well. Most significantly, Federer is serving at around 70% on his first serve which means Murray’s best weapon, the return, is not going to come into play at all.
Another significant factor is that, unlike Dimitrov and Gasquet, if Federer moves ahead quickly in the match, and he is the quicker starter of the two, he is not going to let that lead slip.
Murray could win if:
He gets off to a formidable start by holding serve and breaking Federer early, keeps his first serve percentage high, and plays aggressively from the outset instead of feeling Federer out and gauging his form.
If Murray sneaks the first set, no one has a better record of winning matches this season after taking the first set so the omens would be good.
Murray has a chance if Federer gets nervous. A lot is at stake in this match- the No.2 seed at the US Open, if Federer wins the title he takes it, and a better draw. With Federer aged 34 and trying for one last Slam, the No. 2 seed would definitely give him an extra shot at the title.
Likely winner:
Federer. The chances of him actually getting nervous are slim, and he is more rested, better suited to the surface and in great form.
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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