Three former champions enter the US open 2015 as the main favorites- Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. The Tennis Review looks at their chances and predicts how they will do in the season’s final slam.
Roger Federer
Form coming in: Federer was in great form on his run to the Cincinnati title a week ago. He beat world no.1 and 2 Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray in straight sets and he did not get broken once.
How will the conditions suit him? There have been reports the Open’s Decoturf surface is playing fast this year, faster than last year’s conditions which allowed Cilic to blitz through the draw, which will help Federer’s serve, net game and forehand.
The main problem will be the wind, especially if Federer is having one of his more erratic days when he needs bigger margins for error. His high risk game will need to be toned down a little on those days.
The heavy Wilson balls could be another problem, negating the speed of the courts a little, and playing into the hands of his more defense minded rivals.
Federer will also want to play in the heat of the day and avoid the night matches which will also slow things down, unless he is playing one of the game’s big servers like Karlovic and Isner who are in his quarter, when the night conditions would suit him more.
The Draw: Federer won’t have it easy against Philipp Kohlschreiber if they meet in the third round- the German likes fast courts and took Federer to a final set tiebreaker in the Swiss’ opening round Halle match this year.
Kohlschreiber has also been to the fourth round of the US Open the last three years, beating Isner on the way each time. If Federer beats the German, he could face Isner in the last sixteen. That match should not be a problem for Federer- he does well against big servers and has too much game for Isner in tiebreaks.
In the last eight, Federer is drawn against Tomas Berdych. The Czech beat Federer in 2012 when the Swiss came into the US Open as world No.1 and the Wimbledon champion. But Berdych has been in pretty poor form since Roland Garros and though he will challenge Federer it is hard to see him upsetting him again.
Murray should await in the last four. However Federer has handled Murray perfectly the last few times they have met, most strikingly in the Wimbledon semi-finals this season, and would likely do so again.
Djokovic is Federer’s projected final opponent. But Djokovic, like Federer, has not had too much luck at the US Open since his title run in 2011. Fast hard courts are the Serb’s weakest surface, where he has suffered the majority of his defeats to Federer since 2014, and Federer won’t have a better chance to beat Djokovic for his 18th slam than he will in New York.
In his favour: The surface, his form, the crowd support, the sunny forecast for the first four rounds.
Against: Federer has not won in New York since 2008 and has not been in a final since 2009. Best of five is not the best format for his age and he will have to get his matches won quickly if he is to win.
The balls. They will be heavy, and if it gets humid, his attacking game won’t be as effective against the likes of Murray and Djokovic whose defensive games will be well grooved by the business end of the Open.
The weather for the end of the tournament is quite gloomy. Muggy wet conditions will do Federer no favors at all.
His own game. Federer’s high risk game pays off beautifully on fast hard courts, but he has had a bad day at each slam since winning Wimbledon 2012. In his prime, he was able to get through those bad days and win, but he does not seem to have that ability any longer. One bad day in New York and his campaign could come to a disappointing end.
The Verdict: Everything has to go right for Federer to win- the conditions, the schedule, his own game. If he can get his first five rounds over with quickly he should have enough in the tank to get through his last couple of matches and get that elusive 18th slam.
Novak Djokovic
Form coming in: This is typically Djokovic’s weakest part of the year- he has not won a US Open title since 2011 or a North American Summer hard court title since Canada 2012. This year he has struggled again, though his struggles- runner up finishes in Montreal and Cincinnati- would be huge successes for many a player.
Djokovic has looked injured – his elbow was bothering him in Montreal- and out of sorts- digging himself out of holes against Gulbis (Montreal) and Goffin (Cincinnati). Most worryingly, his game has looked ineffective as he was soundly beaten by Murray and Federer in the ATP 1000 finals he made.
How will the conditions suit him?: The fast surface does Djokovic no favors at all – his prime conditions are slow high bouncing surfaces and the US Open is the opposite.
However, the heavy balls help him out a lot (he still has a great record at the Open since his 2011 win- RU, RU, SF) and he will benefit from night matches.
The rain and humidity should help him out, too. As will night matches or matches late in the day. There is little he can do about the wind though- he has suffered in the wind before in New York (US Open final 2012) so expect those matches to be a bit dicey.
The draw: Djokovic, as top seeds generally do, benefitted from a very nice draw. Andreas Seppi awaits in the third round and though the Italian likes fast courts that match should be the night one.
A rematch with Goffin is scheduled for the fourth round. Goffin’s shot-making are a great sight on fast courts, and the Belgian was all over Djokovic in Cincinnati. Expect something similar if these two meet again, but the Belgian has a problem closing out big matches, and Djokovic over five sets in a slam is an altogether different prospect than three sets at an ATP 1000.
In the quarters, Djokovic is scheduled to meet Nadal. That match should pose no problems for the Serbian. The Spaniard is far from his best hard-court form and will do well to even make it that far.
Nishikori should be there to face Djokovic in the semis. That rematch of last year’s semi-final which Nishikori so dramatically won will be one to watch. The Japanese has been in good form this Summer, and if his injuries are healed, he could upset the world No.1 again.
The final hurdle would likely be Federer. Federer on fast courts has proven to be a nightmare for Djokovic- he has lost to him in Dubai twice, in Shanghai, and in Cincinnati since the start of 2014. Djokovic needs to win the first set of that match, at the very least the second, if he stands a chance of winning his second US Open.
In his favour: The heavy balls, his status (a few players will choke at the prospect of beating him) his fitness, his mental toughness.
Against: The fast conditions in the day, big servers (luckily for him the game’s biggest are in the other half of the draw), the surface.
Verdict: Djokovic is the world No.1, a former champ, a three time runner up. He is going to make the semis at least. But he is beatable and will have to be at his very best if he is to take the title. Likely, his struggles in the warm up events will serve him well and he will find a solution to most of the problems the surface and his rivals pose him.
But there might be one problem too big for him to overcome- Federer on a fast court.
Andy Murray
Form coming in: Murray played aggressive fast court tennis to beat Djokovic in Montreal. It was not a decisive victory though and a point here or there could have turned it. But Murray stayed strong, took risks and got his first victory over Djokovic in nine attempts.
In Cincinnati, Murray looked good until the semi-finals where he was dismissed by Federer. There is little Murray could have done though as Federer’s game is tailor made for the Cincinnati surface.
How will the conditions suit him?: In 2012, Murray showed how he could master all conditions to take the title. The Scot has great versatility- he has fantastic touch for the wind, works the heavier balls to his advantage, plays more aggressively in the sun, and can be more defensive at night. There really is little Murray cannot do or adapt to on a tennis court and that has worked out well for him in New York.
Murray also loves fast courts- they are great for his defensive counter punching, and the heavier balls allow him that little bit of extra time to do more with the ball once he has tracked it down.
The Draw: Murray has drawn big serving, big shot-making and big headline making Nick Kyrgios in the first round. That could be a dangerous match in the heat of the day, but will likely be scheduled for the late afternoon or the night match when Murray’s return and tracking abilities will get the better of the 20 year old.
Murray might have to negotiate in-form big serving Kevin Anderson in the last sixteen. If Anderson is having a great serving day, that could be tricky for Murray. But you have to think Murray has too much game overall, will pounce on any chances he gets on the return, and will be able to drag out the match so that Anderson’s serve eventually begins to lapse.
In the quarters, Murray could face Wawrinka. Stan beat Murray in the 2013 quarter finals in convincing fashion, but Murray was struggling with a back injury. Wawrinka has not been in great form- retiring against Kyrgios in Montreal and winning only five games vs Djokovic in Cincinnati- so if Murray plays his best, he should take it.
A last four showdown with Roger Federer is the worst possible draw for Murray. The Scot cannot do anything when Federer is in prime fast court mode. If it is damp and late in the day, he will have a shot, but Federer has been so clinical of late that he won’t give Murray an inch to make this match go the distance, the only way for Murray to get a win.
In Murray’s favour: The conditions, the balls, the surface, his form.
Against: The draw.
Verdict: Murray will make the semis but, unless he can find an extra gear or two, will, once more, be beaten handsomely by Federer.
Commentary by Christian Deverille.
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