The Shanghai Rolex Masters Final 2015 will be contested between the red hot Novak Djokovic and the talented but unpredictable Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
History: Djokovic leads the head to head 13-6, 7-6 on hard courts, and 1-0 in Shanghai (2013). The last time they met, Tsonga ended a nine match losing streak to Djokovic by beating him 6-2, 6-2 in Toronto (2014).
Tsonga dominated the head to head at one stage and inflicted on Djokovic one of his few defeats at the Australian Open (2010) since the world no. 1 started to rule there.
However, once Djokovic got his game into regular slam winning shape, he turned the head to head round, proving to have the greater mental strength when their matches got tight (see Roland Garros 2012). Tsonga has always struggled when matches get down to the wire, making some suspect shot selections, and if this match gets close, Djokovic is likely to be the one who keeps it together.
Form going in: Novak Djokovic was unstoppable against Andy Murray and beat the world no.2 6-1, 6-3. Meanwhile, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was in inspired form in his 6-4, 0-6, 7-5 defeat of Nadal in which when the match got tight he trusted his instincts and played the better tennis. Tsonga was helped out by Nadal getting tentative, the kind of help he will definitely not be getting from Djokovic.
Who is the favourite? Djokovic is the favourite, but he won’t have it as easy against Tsonga as he did Murray – the Scot’s passive play played into his hands, allowing him to find his rhythm and control the match from inside the baseline and be aggressive. Tsonga, on the other hand, will try and finish points quickly, and make it harder for Djokovic to control the match’s tempo. Tsonga will also serve much better than Murray and Djokovic won’t have such an advantage on the return.
Tsonga can win if: The 16th seed has to serve above 70%, be aggressive at all times, manage his backhand so Djokovic does not tear that side apart, and go for his returns so that Djokovic does not get him into long rallies and get any rhythm.
Tsonga’s best chance will be to take the sets to tiebreak, trust his instincts, take risks and get the crowd on his side. If those risks pay off and he gets the crowd going he can use the atmosphere to his advantage as Djokovic can get testy in those situations.
That’s a lot to ask, but Tsonga has shown this week with three 3 set wins that he is prepared to put in the effort.
Whatever Tsonga does, the one thing he must not do is overthink. The Frenchman has both one of the most beautiful and unique games on the tour and one of the most fragile minds.
Prediction: Djokovic to win in two close sets. This is Tsonga’s biggest final since Toronto ’14 and while he handled that one beautifully, Djokovic will unsettle him by asking too many questions on his backhand wing and gradually break him down both physically and mentally.
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