The ATP World Tour Finals starts Sunday November 15 with the top 8 players competing in London for the end of year trophy. The Tennis Review poses a question about each of the competitors and looks at their chances at an event Novak Djokovic is heavily favored to win.
Novak Djokovic, Champion 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014
Is Novak Djokovic’s 2015 going to be the Greatest ATP season ever?
The statistics have been doing the rounds all week since Djokovic’s win in Paris-Bercy– 6th ATP 1000 title in a season, 27 wins over top tenners in 2015, 22 match win streak. The Serbian will be looking to build on those stats in London and also to put an emphatic final stamp on what may go down as the greatest season ever.
Competing with Federer’s 2006, Sampras’ 93, McEnroe’s 84 and his own ’11 among others, Djokovic could inch past them with the 2015 ATP World Tour Final trophy, what would be his 11th title in a three slam winning season.
If anyone is going to stop Djokovic, it is going to take the type of huge effort only four players have managed to muster in 2015. Everyone in his group is certainly capable of it, they have all beaten him in big matches, but with Nishikori’s health in question, his status as Berdych’s worst match up, and his dominance over Federer on slow surfaces, Djokovic is the heavy favorite to win his group, to put it mildly.
In the semis, he also has huge chances against his prospective opponents, with Wawrinka seemingly the only one with a realistic shot at upsetting him. Should Djokovic meet him, get past him and make the final, where he plays his very best tennis, he will be one of the heaviest favorites there have been- he has lost just four finals from 14 played this season.
But with history on the line, Djokovic has stumbled before, (see his defeat in the French Open final this season), and he has had a career littered with mental meltdowns. Though he looks to have conquered them, his opponents should not be fooled by his confident demeanor- the Serbian feels pressure as greatly as anyone, he just hides it better, and if his opponents can tap into those depths, they might capitalize.
The Federers and Wawrinkas will have to be on their toes to get that deep- Djokovic will give them very few chances, will create plenty of his own, and will, as he has done all season, play those big points better than anyone else on his way to what may be known as the greatest ATP season ever.
One historic legacy has always passed Djokovic by this year, it is hard to imagine that he will let another one escape him, too.
Roger Federer, Champion, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011.
Can Federer execute his attacking game all the way to a title on the slow London surface?
In the days when Federer won the WTF, the surface was a touch faster than now (Players like Blake, Tsonga and Gonzalez were his final opponents). One of the few finals he lost was to Nalbandian whose variety was perfect for indoor fast.
Since the slowing down of the courts, Federer has still done well in London- finals in 2012, runner up last year- but he has not been able to master the surface or one opponent in particular- Novak Djokovic.
We do not know how Federer’s rejuvenated attacking game would have done against Djokovic in last year’s final, but it would not be a surprise if we get to find out this year- Federer does not have the Davis Cup hanging over his head. has the upper hand, recently anyway, over Berdych (that match up will be the most dangerous for him), Kei Nishikori’s health is in question, and Federer has a dominant head to head over French alternate Richard Gasquet.
Crucially, the Swiss has great confidence in his game and believes his attacking strategy could yield great results on slow hard as he has that extra time to set up his net approach.
That theory, expressed in Paris-Bercy, has not worked this season with early defeats in Shanghai and Paris-Bercy, (his Basel win was on a much faster surface), but those defeats came at the hands of opponents executing great tactics, and early on in the tournaments where Federer is more vulnerable.
It will be a much tougher task to edge Federer in a close three setter in London where every match will be a big occasion and where he will arguably be even more popular than home player Murray
The crowd support, his self-confidence, and some rest, might be the combination that earns Federer his first ATP WTF trophy since 2011, and though his work is cut out considering the form of Djokovic, if Federer gets on a roll, Djokovic will have to be at his very best to stop him.
Will Kei Nishikori hobble across the line?
Nishikori’s qualification to his second ATP Tour finals (he made the semis of his first last season) comes at the end of what has been a rocky 2015 hampered by injuries and withdrawals.
The Japanese, who reached a career high of No.4 this season, a Japanese record, and won 3 events, has tweeted he is proud of his top 8 finish, but how proud he will be able to make his fans is in question as there is speculation he may not even finish the round robin stage after his Paris-Bercy round of 16 withdrawal against Gasquet when he was a set and 4-1 down.
Whatever the result, though, if Nishikori can make it to the end of round robin stage without withdrawing or aggravating an injury then he and his fans can take great heart going into 2016. The off season will be a much welcomed chance for Nishikori and his team to rest, evaluate his broken down body and make some important decisions.
Can Berdych end his 2015 how he started it?
At the start of 2015, everything was looking encouraging for Berdych. Armed with a new coach, Danny Vallverdu, the Czech was the runner up in Doha, and beat Rafael Nadal for the first time in 16 matches in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open before losing to Andy Murray.
Those losses, coming after impressive runs in which his clean hitting had never looked better, featured the key factors why Berdych’s year did not lead anywhere-in Doha he was beaten by Ferrer who got one too many balls back and exposed his lack of a viable plan B, and in Melbourne his defeat at the hands of Murray exposed his mental frailties in big matches.
Last week, though, in Paris, Berdych looked intent on ending the year on a high as he pushed Djokovic to two tiebreak sets, and played, arguably, one of his best matches of the season.
If he can bring that form to London then he has a strong chance of defeating Federer, whom he has had a knack of upsetting, getting a set of Djokovic and defeating Nishikori, which might be enough to get him out of the group stage for the very first time, and finish his year the way he started.
Ilie Nastase Group
Is Murray’s Upcoming Davis Cup Final Going to Help or Hinder Him?
Murray’s participation in his home event was in doubt up until a couple of weeks ago. The Scot’s controversial proposal he might skip the event to concentrate on the upcoming historic Davis Cup final was not carried out , but there is still some concern he might be too focused on the Ghent finale to really give his all in London.
That focus has meant Murray has been practicing on clay, and not indoor hard, which is not the worst of strategies considering the at times clay like slowness of the London surface.
However, that Davis Cup focus might not be great for Murray’s ATP World Tour title chances- the world No.2 has trouble keeping his head down and getting on with things at the best of times.
The mental and physical energy the world No.2 will need in Belgium- and no one should underestimate David Goffin who is keenly practicing as we speak-means Murray may want to save some energy and could prevent him from producing the peak tennis he would need to win the ATP World Tour Finals where even when fully motivated he has never made the final despite the home crowd and favorable conditions.
On the other hand, Murray may decide to give his all and see what happens in Belgium, particularly as he will want to avoid another crushing defeat to Djokovic. A victory over Djokovic, or even a competitive match, would send Murray into the final on a confident note, and end what has been an incredible ATP season on a promising note.
Can Nadal still master Murray?
Nadal getting his game together in what has traditionally been his worst part of the season has been one of the year’s most intriguing storylines.
Now another one arises- will Nadal’s mastery of Murray continue after not meeting since Rome 2014? That event, in the early stages of what looked to be a career threatening slump for Nadal, saw Murray take Nadal all the way to 7-5 in the third.
Murray has had his winning periods versus Djokovic and Federer during his career, but he has never been able to do get more than get the odd win over Nadal- the Spaniard has simply had too much consistency, been too aggressive, and, most crucially, been too mentally tough for him.
This surface will not help Murray in his quest to get a rare win over the Spaniard – Nadal likes things slow and is feeling confident on the surface. The Spaniard also likes the big stage, a challenge (and beating the world no.2 will be one he will lap up), will know he has an opportunity to continue his recent reassertion of himself, and has no problem playing the villain, taking that role on in many of his big defeats of Roger Federer over the years.
What side of the bed is Stan Wawrinka going to get out off?
Last year Stan Wawrinka made the semis of his first WTF finals, playing easily the match of the tournament against Roger Federer.
That run to the last four ended what had been a post Australian Open slump for Wawrinka, and since then the Swiss has really gotten his game together winning another slam, two ATP 500 titles and an ATP 250 in 2015.
The Swiss is still prone to strange defeats, though, and it is hard to call any of his match ups because he can beat anybody, and lose to them, no matter what his previous match’s form was like (see his impressive win over Nadal in Rome followed by his dismal loss to Federer).
For what it’s worth, Wawrinka comes into the WTF in good form, winning a close match versus Nadal in Paris before becoming the first man to take a set off Djokovic since the US Open. He also has a nice group- he has beaten Murray in their most recent big matches, is coming off a confidence boosting defeat of Nadal, and is the bigger big match player than Ferrer.
Wawrinka could go 3-0 or 0-3- he is perhaps the hardest to predict of all the players, a quality which makes his matches compulsive viewing , has injected some great moments into 2015, and makes him, after Djokovic and Federer, the man most likely to win the trophy.
Can David Ferrer pull an Alex Corretja?
Ferrer is the player most flying under the radar. No one expects him to win, a situation one suspects the unassuming Spaniard enjoys, and if he were to win, it would be the biggest shock since Alex Corretja beat Agassi, Sampras and Moya for the 1998 title, also played in London.
Ferrer would need some luck to emulate his countryman, much like Corretja had when Agassi retired injured in the round robin stage and when he faced a struggling Sampras in the last four. Unfortunately for Ferrer, there are no injuries in Ferrer’s group, and Djokovic is anything but struggling.
A trophy therefore is unlikely, but this is tennis and, in theory at least, anything can happen, and if anyone deserves a bit of luck it is Ferrer, one of the tour’s hardest working players.
Looking at his group, Ferrer matches up well with Murray, has the ability to beat Nadal, and is 6-7 versus Wawrinka. In the semis, he would likely need to take Djokovic to the brink and seize the one chance he might get, and in the final, he would have to be better than the other guy under great pressure.
Producing your best and, most crucially, being better than the rest, is what it takes to win the sport’s big titles. That is what Corretja had to do and what Ferrer has worked his whole life for. If some luck comes his way as a result of all that work, Ferrer will do his absolute best to take it and come out from under that radar.
Predictons
Stan Smith Group qualifiers
- Novak Djokovic
- Roger Federer
Ilie Natase Group qualifiers
- Rafael Nadal
- Stan Wawrinka
Semi-finals
- Novak Djokovic defeats Stan Wawrinka
- Roger Federer defeats Rafael Nadal
Final
- Novak Djokovic defeats Roger Federer
Commentary by Christian Deverille
Which storyline are you most excited about at this year’s ATP World Tour Finals? Let us know below.
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