One of the ATP tour’s biggest rivalries will take the stage for the 43rd time when Novak Djokovic (1) meets Roger Federer (3) in the Stan Smith group at the ATP World Tour Finals on Tuesday. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
History: This head to head is tied at 21-21 and if Novak Djokovic wins then he will lead the rivalry for the first time in its history.
This year they have met 6 times, and Djokovic leads 4-2. Federer won on the faster courts of Dubai and Cincinnati while Djokovic has been winning on the slower surfaces of Indian Wells and Rome and in their biggest matches, in the best of five format, in the Wimbledon and US Open finals.
At the ATP World Tour Finals, Djokovic leads 3-1, and has won the last 3 meetings, though the final last year did not happen when Federer pulled out with injury.
This meeting, therefore, has an extra edge to it of unfinished business- just how will Federer’s predominantly attacking game match up against Djokovic’s baseline consistency, depth of shot and defense to offense transition on a slow indoor court?
Djokovic’s other wins at the O2, in 2013 and 2012, all came when Federer was more vulnerable to being pinned to the baseline and outdone by Djokovic’s rallying skills. But this year, Djokovic will be up against an altogether different game plan from Federer, one that has been beating him and stealing sets in most of their matches. (They are 7-5 in favor of Djokovic since Federer rejigged his game in 2014, and Federer has won sets in five of the matches he has lost).
Form coming in: Novak Djokovic is in the form of his life- he is on a 23 match winning streak after defeating Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1 in his opening round robin match.
Federer, meanwhile, has been patchy. While he won the title on the faster indoor courts of Basel, he has been struggling a little on slow hard courts, losing early in Shanghai and Paris-Bercy.
Those struggles looked like they might continue when he dropped serve to go down 0-2 versus Tomas Berdych in their round robin opener, but the Swiss came back strong to win 6-4, 6-2 in under an hour.
That quick win should make Federer feel confident he can execute his game on slow hard, and confidence will be the key versus Djokovic who, playing in his most favorable conditions, has all the tools to make Federer doubt himself on the big points.
Who should win: Djokovic has to be the favorite- he is the best player on this surface and has shown time and again his consistency, depth, and belief are too much for Federer on the game’s slower surfaces.
Federer could win if: he gets off to a good start, keeps his first serve higher than the 61% he managed versus Berdych, attacks the Djokovic forehand with slice, goes down the line with his own attacking forehand, commits to aggressive tennis, and denies Djokovic the baseline rhythm he loves
If Federer can bombard Djokovic early on and keep him guessing – as he has done so skillfully in all his recent defeats of Djokovic (he has beaten him in straight sets in his last four wins)- he could become the first man to beat Djokovic since he himself achieved that feat back in the Cincinnati final.
Prediction: Djokovic to win in three sets. Federer will be confident and wanting to end the year on a high note, which should motivate him to produce his best tennis, but the surface lends itself to Djokovic more than Federer.
The Serbian’s depth, consistency, and point construction will keep Federer further back than he would like at crucial moments and edge the world No.1 ahead in this rivalry for the first time.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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