The ATP World Tour Finals last four feature a repeat of last year’s best contest at the same stage, Roger Federer Vs Stan Wawrinka, and an old rivalry rekindled in Novak Djokovic up against Rafael Nadal. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winners.
Roger Federer Vs Stan Wawrinka
These two produced by far the best match in last year’s ATP WTF semi-finals when Roger Federer came back from match points down to defeat Stan Wawrinka 7-5 in the third.
Wawrinka is a tough match up for Federer on a slow court- he may trail Federer 3-17, but all three of those wins have come on Clay.
The ATP World Tour Finals surface, labeled by some as blue clay, shares some of the qualities of the red stuff with its slow surface and the ball can bounce high for an indoor court .
Those factors will benefit Stan whose single handed backhand, unlike Roger’s, is an attacking shot- it’s heaviness, and high bounce if he piles on the top spin, sends the receiver running back to retrieve which leaves Stan able to open up the court for the winner or gives him plenty of time to step into the court and attack.
If Stan can get Federer involved in cross court backhand rallies then he has a chance to do some serious damage.
While Wawrinka will get the chance to do that in own service games, he won’t get much of a look in during Federer’s one- the Swiss will be implementing his own strategy of sending Stan low sliced balls to dig up, attacking the net, and being aggressive on the forehand to pull Wawrinka wide and open the court.
That proactive aspect of both their games- neither one reacts to their opponent’s game but sets out to execute their own Plan A- is what will make this another great contest that will likely be decided in tight sets.
The likely winner? With Wawrinka in a big match in the last two years, you never know what could happen. The Swiss number two gets up for these ones, and if he catches a flash of inspiration, Federer will have to fight hard for the win like he did last year.
Federer has plenty of fight in him this tournament, though, and is clearly enjoying the conditions. He is also the better best of three player of the two, and arguably the better big match player- he will be able to see through Wawrinka’s peak periods and put pressure on him when things get tight which should be enough to edge Federer the win.
Novak Djokovic Vs Rafa Nadal
Nadal’s resurgence this indoor season is illustrated by his 3-0 record in this year’s Finals round robin, beating Murray, Wawrinka and Ferrer.
Nadal was helped somewhat by Wawrinka and Murray’s shaky performances, but his consistency and tactical powers put enough pressure on his opponent’s to make their bad days even worse.
The Ferrer match though- a grinding three setter and a match he might have lost earlier this year- was a testament to how far he has come since a post injury loss of confidence saw him drop to No.10 in the rankings.
That lack of confidence was never more apparent than at Roland Garros when he suffered a straight sets defeat to Djokovic in which he looked lost in the third set– one of the strangest sights in tennis this season.
Just as strange was seeing Djokovic so dismantled by Roger Federer in their round robin match on Tuesday. Federer beating Djokovic in straight sets is no surprise- he has done so in his last four wins vs Djokovic since Madrid ’14- but doing it on a slow indoor court was quite a shock.
Nadal’s confidence rising high, Djokovic looking a little out of sorts- could this set the stage for Nadal to get a first win over Djokovic since Roland Garros ’14?
An upset would be unlikely. Djokovic’s loss to Federer may have been out-of-character- the Serb hit 26 unforced errors- but if anyone is going to beat Djokovic decisively, it is Federer. We should also remember that a round robin match which a player can lose yet still qualify for the business end of the event is a very different scenario than the actual business end itself , the semi-finals of the ATP World Tour Finals, an event Djokovic has won three years running.
However, the most decisive factor here is the match up issue on slow hard, particularly slow indoor hard. Even in Nadal’s best season- 2013- Djokovic dominated Nadal on slow hard, beating him in straight sets in both the Beijing and ATP WTF finals.
Nadal, though, is a player whose mind can triumph over matter, and if he gets an under par Djokovic then he has the defensive skills, a weapon in his forehand down the line, and enough experience at exploiting Djokovic’s weaknesses- Nadal leads the head to head 23-22– to get the upset. Strange things happen in tennis, and Nadal has been the master of making them happen- after all, who expected him to be a two time Wimbledon and US Open champion back in 2006?
That transition from clay-courter to all surface champion did not happen overnight, though, and it is unlikely that Nadal is going to go from losing to Djokovic in straight sets as he did back in this season’s Beijing final to beating him in a big match on a similar surface in a couple of months.
This match is likely to go much the same way as that recent Beijing final with Djokovic winning in straight sets, although this match should be, considering Nadal’s great improvement, closer. Whatever happens, considering Djokovic’s performance against Federer and Nadal’s surge in confidence, this match will make compulsive viewing.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
Do you think Wawrinka and Nadal have a good chance to upset Federer and Djokovic in the ATP World Tour Finals? Let us know in the comments below 🙂
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