There is plenty at stake in this year’s ATP World Tour Finals Championship match between Novak Djokovic (1) and Roger Federer (3). The Tennis Review looks at what both man stand to win or lose and predicts who will walk away with the trophy.
1. A record breaking fourth trophy in a row for Djokovic (fifth overall) and a record seventh trophy for Federer.
Novak Djokovic is the three time defending champion at the ATP World Tour Finals, and has beaten Roger Federer for two of those trophies, though last year’s was a walkover when Federer withdrew.
A fourth trophy in a row would be an achievement not even Federer, Sampras, Connors or Nastase, who all dominated the event in their time, managed to achieve, and would add to Djokovic’s ever-growing list of accomplishments.
Federer would also add to his remarkable list were he to win- he would win the trophy undefeated for the sixth time and would break his own record for the most trophies won (6).
2. Novak Djokovic’s claim to have had the best Open era season of all time.
Djokovic’s 3o wins over top ten players (a record), six ATP 1000 trophies (another record), three slams, appearances in all four slam finals, and 15 consecutive finals all combine to make a great case for the Serb putting together the greatest season of the Open era.
The Serbian is not there yet, though, and one man with whom he is competing for that title is Federer himself whose 2006 was pretty impressive.
Like Djokovic, Federer made all the slam finals and lost one, dominated the field, losing only five times (Djokovic has lost six times) to two players (Djokovic has lost to four), and won 12 titles to Djokovic’s current tally of 10, and won more matches- 92 to Djokovic’s current record of 81.
If Djokovic were to lose the final to Federer, which would mean he had lost twice to Federer in the week, it would weaken his case for the best season ever as in 2006 Federer did not lose from the US Open first round to lifting the WTF title.
If he won, though, the fact it was his fourth title in a row, and that he had beaten an in-form Federer to do it (Federer won his in 2006 beating Blake) would seal Greatest season in the Open era status for him in many eyes.
3. Federer’s year-end No.2 ranking and the No.2 seed for the Australian Open.
If Federer wins he will have a chance to finish the season as the world No.2 (Murray can then only get that ranking if he wins all his Davis Cup rubbers), but if he loses he will stay at No.3 behind Andy Murray.
Though the rankings may not mean much to Federer at this stage of his career compared to the trophy itself, the No.2 seed at the Australian Open would at least keep him away from that tournament’s greatest ever champion – Novak Djokovic– until the final.
4. Djokovic will either level the head to head at 22-22 or Federer will lead it 23-21.
Djokovic has never led the head to head, and if Federer wins this match and leads 23-21 then Djokovic would need to beat Federer three consecutive times to finally achieve that milestone, and with the back and forth nature of their recent rivalry, that would be, considering Federer does not look like slowing down anytime soon, unlikely.
Since Federer’s resurgence from back injury in 2014, the two have faced 13 times with Djokovic winning seven times and Federer six.
Djokovic has won the three biggest matches in the Wimbledon ’14 and 15 finals, and the US Open ’15 final (each time in four sets), has won three other matches on slow courts in Indian Wells (‘14, ’15, three sets each), and Rome (’15 in straights) and had the walkover in last year’s final.
Meanwhile, Federer has recorded his last five wins over Djokovic in straight sets with his Dubai ’14 semi-final the only match he has won against Djokovic going the distance.
Federer has been winning the matches on the tour’s faster surfaces (Dubai x 2, Shanghai ’14, Cincinnati ’15) while Djokovic has been winning on slower courts, a factor that made Federer’s round robin match this event so intriguing.
Federer executed his attacking strategy as he always does on a slower court against Djokovic, but this time it worked out for him. The Swiss put a lot of pressure on Djokovic’s serve, served great himself, and never lost focus once as Djokovic made a lot of errors by his standards, and was the most negative he has been on-court since 2013.
If Federer is going to win his seventh ATP World Tour Final trophy then he has to reproduce the game he played on Tuesday, and he has to get it done in straights.
That, though, will be a hard task to achieve over the world No.1 twice in the space of five days. Djokovic is going to be especially driven this final, and it is in the finals where the world No.1 brings his best game.
Djokovic’s knack of playing just the right match at the business end of events is what allows him to produce the kind of tennis he did to beat a resurgent Rafael Nadal so decisively in their semi-final and he will be in a similar mood tomorrow with so much on the line historically.
5. The reputation of men’s tennis.
This tournament, like last year, has been a mixed bag quality wise, and after two less than inspiring semi-finals, the event, the end of season ‘showdown’ of the ATP’ s top eight players, needs a great final to help build the reputation of the game.
Federer has it in him to make a match of it against Djokovic, and could win the title himself considering his recent form. The Swiss picked himself up from an up and down performance against Kei Nishikori in his final round robin match to defeat Stan Wawrinka 7-5, 6-3 in a semi-final match which saw him use his serve, forehand, slice and net game to come back from a break down in the first set, take control of the match and win in 70 minutes.
Federer can not afford to get off to such a slow start against Djokovic- who will not let him get back into the match as easily- and should produce a high standard of tennis from the get-go which will make this a competitive match.
If Federer does get off to a slow start then this match might be another one to forget and will do no favors for the name of a game that Federer, more than anyone, through sheer charm, his beautiful game and current status as media darling, has managed to make such a positive one.
Prediction: This one is tough to call as each player knows how to get the best out of their games on the surface and either one could take it.
If Djokovic can hang with Federer through a couple of tight sets, and not be overwhelmed in straights as has happened throughout their recent history then expect Djokovic to win.
The Serb will take control of the match the second Federer’s level dips, which is more likely to happen the longer the match goes on, get deep into Federer’s weakening service games by hitting deep, well-placed returns, and then either out rally him and hit a winner, force an error or pass him at the net on the big points.
Whatever way this match plays out, considering what is at stake, it will make for potentially fascinating viewing. If either Djokovic wins with a typically gritty and high octane performance or Federer stuns him once again with his aggression and flair, then tennis is in for an end of season treat either way.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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