Roger Federer defends his ATP 250 Brisbane International title this week and the top seed and defending champion will be the heavy favorite to lift his 89th career title at one of the tour’s faster hard court events and in one of the toughest ATP 250 draws featuring the potential next generation of slam champs in Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov. The Tennis Review looks at who has the best chance to defeat Federer among his rivals in the draw.
Final
Milos Raonic (4)
In last season’s Brisbane final, Raonic pushed Federer to three sets, and his big serve and aggressive game which work well on Brisbane’s fast hard courts could help him challenge Federer again when they meet for the title for the second year in a row today.
Raonic, who has been plagued by injuries the last nine months, is looking to be in much better shape physically and recently made the final of the Abu Dhabi exhibition where he lost in straights to Nadal.
Raonic has made his way through the draw beating Ivan Dodig in three sets, Lucas Pouille in straights, and was impressive in his 7-6, 7-6 defeat of a well playing Bernard Tomic. The way he took control of both tiebreaks before a Tomic supporting home crowd was a positive sign of his mental strength.
Raonic will need that match strength, and toughness, when he meets Federer in this year’s Brisbane final. The Canadian has only managed to defeat Federer once in ten attempts (in straights at the Paris Masters ’14), but can take some extra confidence from the fact he has taken four sets in his nine losses.
Raonic knows he can challenge Federer, even beat him, and if he gets the chance in the Brisbane final, he could rise to the occasion. Such chances will be fleeting though, if they come along at all, so the Canadian has to control the match from the start by serving impeccably- the slightest wobble and Federer has the necessary skills to get a crucial break or mini-break in a tiebreaker- and to be as fluid and confident as he was against Bernard Tomic when he grabbed match point on Tomic’s serve with some great back-court play and then a beautiful volley.
If Raonic cannot impose his game from the start, and if Federer is in fine form, then Raonic is going to have to stay with Federer on serve, and find some inspiration in tiebreakers. We know the Canadian is feeling a little inspired from the following tweet:
Now I get a shot at the title tomorrow, that’s what I play for. A challenge lies ahead of me… https://t.co/ag6E8GYH1P
— Milos Raonic (@milosraonic) January 9, 2016
Raonic is renowned for his hard work ethic and his professionalism- he is never surprised at his success because that is what he has been working for- and you have to think that an ATP final before the Australian Open versus Federer on a favorable surface in good form after all his injury problems is the kind of shot he will get pumped up for.
Federer, though, will be pumped, too. Title 89 is on the line, his chances at slams are getting slimmer with each one, and he also has some fresh blood in his camp in the guise of Ivan Ljubicic who knows both Federer’s and Raonic’s games inside out, a valuable resource for this upcoming Brisbane final.
Federer has also been in great form, beating players he matches up well against. He swept aside Kamke in the last sixteen and Thiem in the semis, and though he slipped up against Dimitrov in the quarters, he got himself back on track in the third in convincing style.
With both men motivated and playing well this final should deliver when it comes to entertainment, tennis skills and giving us some insight into how Federer, the game’s living legend, and Raonic, one of its potential slam champions, are doing before the season’s first slam.
Prediction:
Raonic could surprise us all. The Canadian has been around long enough to handle these matches, and players can often gain a lot of mental toughness after injury lay-offs.
However, it might be too much too soon after all his recent physical troubles so we are going to go with Federer to win in three sets. The Swiss has proven he is a difficult match up for Raonic, has a more solid game when it comes to crucial moments in the match, and his superior shot-making skills and selection on big points should make the difference in this final.
Round of 16: Tobias Kamke
Never underestimate Federer’s opening round opponent- we learned that lesson back in Shanghai last season when Albert Ramos-Vinolas shocked the defending champion in the Swiss’ opening round.
This time Federer’s first challenger is Tobias Kamke. Kamke, currently ranked 277, has a career high ranking of 64 (31.01.2011), and has been on the pro tour since 2004.
The German’s chances against Federer if the Swiss carries over his 2015 form into the new season are slim, however, Kamke is not without hope. The German has plenty of experience- he has two wins against top ten players, (beating Tomas Berdych (6) at Basel ’10 and Juan Martin del Potro (7) at the Sony Open ’13), pushed then world No.1 Rafael Nadal to three sets at Doha ’14, has beaten players of the quality of Nishikori and Goffin before they became established players, and defeated 21st ranked Alexandr Dolgopolov at Hamburg ’14.
Those experiences should give Kamke the confidence to know he can push the top players, even beat them, and he should also draw some self-belief from the valuable match toughness he has gained this week while Federer comes in with none.
Kamke, like Ramos-Vinolas in Shanghai, has made it through qualifying, defeating Norbert Gambos and Jurgen Zopp, and then beat Australian Benjamin Mitchell in his main draw opener to earn the right to meet Federer in the last 16. That opening round main draw win against a home player receiving strong support should also give the German a real boost before such a big match against the world No.3.
This will be the second meeting between Kamke and Federer. The Swiss won their first meeting back at the 2012 French Open in straight sets, but it was not at all straightforward as Kamke led 4-1 in the second set.
Considering Kamke’s current match toughness and his previous career highlights, the Swiss will need to be at his best in their Brisbane opener or he could face the kind of nervy encounter he had against then ranked 153 John Millman in his opening Brisbane ’15 match.
A nervy opener does look on the cards whatever happens- rumors are circulating that Federer is injured with a left forearm complication so Kamke might find he has an under the weather Federer in the slower night time conditions. Those factors could favor him and if he has played himself into good enough form then anything could happen.
Quarter-final: Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov has a tough task ahead of him to get back into the top ten and start winning tournaments again after a disastrous 2015, and a win over Federer if he meets him in the Brisbane quarter-finals would help make that journey back to the top a lot easier .
A win would give Dimitrov much needed confidence, and it would be a break through of sorts for a player christened Baby Fed since his first steps onto the tour but who has not been able to climb out of the shadow of his so called Tennis father.
Dimitrov has also not managed to topple Federer in their on court encounters. The two have met three times and Federer leads 3-0 including a decisive 6-2, 6-2 victory in the Brisbane semis last season.
Dimitrov does not have the aggressive baseline game that can break Federer down on a hard court. Instead, Dimitrov will have to match Federer’s net aggression and flair, and beat him at his own game. Dimitrov will have to have a high first serve percentage, take risks, and be creative. That is when Dimitrov is at his very best, and only his best will do against Federer.
Semi-finals: Marin Cilic (3)
Cilic has a famous win over Federer on hard courts, defeating him on his run to the 2014 US Open title. The two have not met since then, and their careers have gone in different directions with Cilic slowly coming back from a shoulder injury and Federer making the 2015 US Open final and winning 6 titles in 2015.
Back in New York ’14, Cilic was on a real roll, and that confidence played a huge factor in his win. He will not have that confidence coming into this match though a tricky opening round win versus Hyeon Chung in straight sets should have warmed him up nicely and given him some self-belief.
Cilic would have to be on a little bit of roll to get to Federer in the semis as he will have to get past Dominic Thiem in his last eight match. The two have never met, but Thiem has a tricky dynamic game that Cilic will have to be on top of his game to get past.
If that match gets messy, Cilic is a much stronger player mentally than he was pre-2014 and so has a better chance to get through it. If he does, then the knowledge he can fight through a bad day against a tough opponent and the match toughness that will come with a hard-fought win will make the Croat even more of a danger in the semis.
If Cilic also manages to get his game going in that match, then Federer will have to be on top form. Cilic’s top game on fast hard is a sight to behold- he has a great serve, aggressive and penetrating ground-strokes, and an underrated net game, and if everything is clicking, Federer will be, like he was on that Summer’s day in New York, in a lot of trouble.
Dominic Thiem (8)
Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem will meet for the first time in what is a surprise veteran meets next generation clash in the Brisbane semis.
Thiem is Federer’s unscheduled last four opponent after the eighth seed upset third seed Marin Cilic in the quarter-finals 2-6, 7-6, 6-4. Thiem did well to come back from a set down to defeat the ’14 US Open champion, and his consistency and point construction were too much for Cilic when the match went deep in the third, qualities that could be decisive if Thiem manages to take Federer deep into the third in their match.
Federer will also go into the semi match tough after he took three sets to defeat Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-7, 6-4. His form was patchy against the Bulgarian as he seemed to have the match under control only to lose his way a little in the second set tiebreak which is where he usually proves to be the stronger of two aggressive players on a fast hard court.
The Swiss did come back strong in the third, but that earlier lack of focus could cost him if it happens against the 22 year old Thiem who has nothing to lose in this encounter and will not take his eye off the ball for even a millisecond.
Thiem will need to be on the ball and aggressively so against Federer who goes into match as the favorite. The Swiss’s aggressive game is tailor made for fast hard courts and as the defending champion he is very comfortable at the Pat Rafter Arena. Meanwhile, the Austrian has proven to be more of a clay courter. winning three ATP 250 clay titles in ’15, though he has had success on fast courts, reaching the US Open last 16 in 2014.
The Austrian is a strong transitional player capable of some fine defensive play and then attacking once he has constructed the point well enough to move inside the court and execute. Those defensive skills will come in handy versus the Swiss, especially his ability to hit stunning single handed backhand winners down the line on the run, but he won”t have much time to track down balls and return them with interest, and his attacking skills are what he will need to focus on in this match to stand a chance on these courts versus Federer.
Thiem, like he did against Cilic, will try to control the match from where he is most comfortable -from behind the baseline where he has enough time to swing through that backhand. There, he can try to get some rhythm going, get Federer on the run with a mix of depth and angles and then move in to end the point.
Those opportunities will be fleeting though, especially during Federer’s service games. The Austrian will need to return well if he is going to stand a chance against Federer in the Swiss’ service games or in tiebreaks. Federer is, if healthy, going to serve as well as ever, take Thiem on inside the court, and go for his shots. That recipe has been working well as Federer has faced just two break points in 23 service game played in Brisbane.
Thiem will have to be on top of his serve, too as Federer will go for broke on his second service returns, especially if things get tight and he senses Thiem is getting nervous. That is where Federer’s veteran status will come into play- the Swiss will play the big points with that confidence gained from winning 88 ATP titles, and will handle his nerves better.
Thiem’s nerves, on the other hand, may betray him. The world No.20, who has just three titles to his name, will be feeling the pressure of playing an elite player of Federer’s status in an ATP semi for the first time and will need to serve as well as he did against Cilic in their third set if he is going to win. If his serve falters at any stage of the match, that one break down could be decisive in determining his fate.
An attacking strategy should be enough for Federer to get the win, but if Thiem can keep him out there, get some rhythm and confidence going, get lucky on some big points, and most ultimately hold his nerve, then this match could get very interesting for neutrals and Thiem fans, and be somewhat nerve-wracking for Federer fans.
Final:
David Goffin (6)
Goffin’s verstaile game translates well to all surfaces, and he has a good record on the tour’s faster courts. In 2015, he made the Chennai semis, the quarter-finals of Basel, where he took Federer to three sets, the round of 32 of the US Open, and the round of 16 in Cincinnati and Montreal.
Goffin has never beaten Federer in three attempts, but he has taken two sets off him, including one at the French Open ’12 where Goffin made the fourth round as a lucky loser.
The Belgian will not shy away from the challenge of facing Federer in a big ATP match, and has enough aggression and flair in his game to put up a fight, but his mentality might let him down if things get close. Take a look at his loss against Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati last season when he led the world No.1 3-0 in the third set before losing the last six games. That kind of loss is not unheard of against Djokovic for any of the ATP players, but an assertive Goffin had looked well in control and the manner in which he lost his grip on the match once Djokovic’s intensity rose was a little worrying.
However, Goffin can develop that side of his game, and will likely have done so in the off-season. If he gets past Milos Raonic and then his nemesis Kei Nishikori, who leads him 3-0, to make the final, and is feeling inspired for 2016, then a Brisbane final versus Federer could be a great place for Goffin to make another big breakthrough on his way to the top of the ATP.
Kei Nishikori (2)
The Japanese is always a tough opponent for Federer. His aggressive baseline game can keep Federer pinned to the baseline, break down his backhand, and pass him at the net. Those abilities have been showcased in Nishikori 2 wins to 4 losses to Federer, and in their last highly competitive match at last season’s WTF.
Nishikori is the favorite, as the second seed, to make the final and face Federer for the title. The Japanese has not always done so well against the Swiss on fast courts, though, losing their matches in Halle (’14) and Basel (’11), but he has had convincing hard fought wins over him on fast clay (Madrid ’13), and on slow hard (Miami ’14).
However, if Nishikori can come up with a winning strategy against Federer on faster courts, and if he can keep his second serve from falling apart in tight moments, then he has the game, and the big match experience on fast courts that comes with beating Novak Djokovic on the way to the US Open ’14 final, to get a win over Federer in Brisbane.
Conclusion: It really does look like the person with the greatest chance of defeating Federer in Brisbane is Roger Federer. Though the opposition might be tough depth wise, Federer leads them all in his head to heads and his game on fast hard courts is strategically in his favor versus all of them.
Whoever beats Federer, and Raonic might be the most likely, is going to have to be at the top of their game, which means tennis fans will be treated to either Federer executing his unique fast court game to its usual high standards or being beaten by a career best performance by a member of, potentially, the next slam winner’s circle.
Either way, tennis wins.
Who do you think has the best chance of beating Roger Federer in Brisbane? Let us know in the comments box below.
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