Novak Djokovic is the heavy favorite to lift his sixth Australian Open in a fortnight’s time, and it seems only a handful of players have a legitimate shot at beating him. There are though some worthy title outsiders who if things go right for them could deliver a stunning defeat of the ATP’s dominant No.1. The Tennis Review looks at the chances of Rafa Nadal, Milos Raonic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Rafael Nadal Champion 2009, Runner-up 2014
Round they would meet: Final
Why they have a shot: For Nadal to get to Djokovic at this year’s Australian Open, he would also need to get to the final which is where Djokovic might be the toughest but is also where Nadal would be his most dangerous.
The chances of Nadal making the final look slim- the former Champion has not been to a slam final since Roland Garros 2014, and has not gone beyond the quarters since then so is a little out of practice when it comes to making the business end of majors. (His record at slams since RG ’14 is 4r-DNP-QF-QF-2R-3R).
That should not deter Nadal though, the one time comeback king of tennis, and neither should the opposition who will be laying in wait. At the end of 2015, Nadal started beating top tenners again, getting the better of Raonic and Wawrinka in Shanghai, and then beating Wawrinka again at the ATP WTF and Murray and Ferrer.
If Nadal is to go beyond the quarters of this year’s Australian Open then he would likely have to get past Stan Wawrinka again, the man who beat him in the 2014 Melbourne final,and also more recently in the Paris-Bercy quarters, or Milos Raonic who defeated him at last year’s Indian Wells.
With both those men just coming off warm-up trophies in Chennai and Brisbane, Nadal would have to be playing well to get past them and full of the confidence he was missing in the first half of 2015, but which seemed to be about 70% back by his semi-final finish at the ATP WTF.
In the semis, Nadal would then most likely have to get past Andy Murray who he has a huge mental hold over (witness their ATP WTF match last season) and whom he has a good shot at getting past in a match as big as the Australian Open semis.
High on confidence, in slam-final making form- a slam final really would be the best place for a back to his best Nadal to meet Djokovic who has been dominating him of late, and never in such severe fashion as he did last week in Doha when he dropped just three games.
However, Djokovic has dominated Nadal before only to have that dominance turned around. From Indian Wells 2011-Australian Open 2012 Djokovic beat Nadal in seven finals, three of them slams, only for Nadal to beat him three times in a row in ’12, and then come back from injury in ’13 to beat him in two slam finals and take back the ATP world No.1 ranking from the Serbian.
So if anyone is going to come back to making slam finals and ending Djokovic’s dominance it is going to be Nadal.
Their biggest obstacle: Djokovic is never more dangerous than he is in Australian Open finals. He has not lost a single one, and even when Nadal was at his best in the 2012 final and had chances in the fifth set, the Spaniard could not pull it off.
Nerves will also be an issue. Nadal will dearly want a second Australian Open title- he would then join Laver and Emerson with two titles at each Major- and a 15th slam and that great desire is sure to produce huge nerves, the kind Djokovic is the master of sniffing out and working to his favor.
Milos Raonic Quarter-finalist 2015
Round they would meet: Final
Why they have a shot: Milos Raonic, along with Kei Nishikori and Grigor Dimitrov, has been the next big thing for a while now. That status looked set to be under serious threat when the 2014 Wimbledon semi-finalist was sidelined from the tour for much of 2015, but after the Canadian’s breakthrough Brisbane title win over Federer, that status might be ready to be updated to The Big Thing.
Raonic has the big weapons to make that happen, and it is not just his serve anymore which devastates his opponents. The world No.14 has worked hard to build up his all round game and can hit lethal ground strokes from the back of the court and move into the court to put away some fine volleys.
A more complete player and looking healthy, Raonic also has the advantages of flying under the radar and the momentum of his Brisbane run. If he made his first slam final and faced Djokovic the moment could either ruin him or inspire him to great heights to grab a first win over the world No.1 and that all important first slam.
Both- that first Djokovic win and that first slam- seem overdue. The Canadian is just the type of player who troubles Djokovic with his huge serve that his great return can barely touch, and the kind of game that when on can overwhelm him.
Their biggest obstacle: Those debut slam nerves tend to get to most people, and after a lifetime of dreaming about it, the reality can often turn into a nightmare (Look at what happened to Kei Nishikori in his slam final debut).
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Runner-up 2008
Round they would meet: Quarter-finals.
Why they have a shot: Tsonga can claim to have a major part to play in Djokovic’s illustrious Australian Open history- he was the player Djokovic beat in his first ever slam final, and he is one of only three players to beat Djokovic in Melbourne since that 2008 debut win.
In fact, Tsonga is one of the players who has troubled him the most in his career, beating him 6 times, and most recently to the loss of just four games at the 2014 Canadian Open on a medium slow hard court.
The setting of a grand slam quarter-final will be one Tsonga gets up for, too. As much as the Frenchman has the reputation of letting the big moments get to him, it is also when his high risk aggressive game tends to pay off the greatest for him. Last season he demonstrated how the big occasions bring out the best in him when after a long period of injury problems he returned to the tour and defeated Nishikori at the French Open to make the semis and then took defending champion Marin Cilic to five sets in the US Open quarters.
The Australian open quarters versus Novak Djokovic, it does not get much more high profile than that, and if Tsonga is going to pull off the upset of the tournament, it will be there. Djokovic is at his weakest before the finals and Tsonga will be ready and waiting to see what he can make happen.
Their biggest obstacle: There is a reason Tsonga has just one slam final to his name considering his considerable talent- his shot-making selection which can go from the sublime to the ridiculous in seconds, and usually it is the former to get to the big point and the latter on it. If Tsonga does push Djokovic to five, like he did at the 2012 French Open, he will have two battles going on- one with the world No.1 who so often plays his best when down, and another with his mind that tends to melt just when he needs it to be its most solid.
Which title outsider do you think has the best shot of getting an upset over Djokovic at this year’s Australian Open? Please share your views with us in the comments box below.
Check out our other Australian Open preview articles here: Why Novak Djokovic is the heavy favorite to win the Australian Open
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