Novak Djokovic is the heavy favorite to win the Australian Open, but there are a few players who have a legitimate chance of defeating him, namely Roger Federer, Kei Nishikori, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka. The Tennis Review looks at what makes them likely candidates, and what, other than the five time Champion himself, stands in their way.
Stan Wawrinka, Champion 2014, Semi-final 2015
Possible match stage: Final
Why he is a candidate: Stan Wawrinka was the last man to beat Djokovic in Melbourne when he knocked him out 9-7 in the fifth of their Australian Open 2014 quarter-final. That was nice revenge for his 10-12 fifth set loss to the Serbian in the fourth round the previous year. Last year, the Swiss also took Djokovic to five sets in their Semi-final.
Wawrinka is not only one of the few men to get in the way of Djokovic’s Australian Open title challenge since 2008 (Tsonga and Roddick are the other two), he is also the man who stopped Djokovic completing his career grand slam when he stunned him in the French Open final last season.
The Swiss’ big serving and aggressive game (he hit 60 winners in that four set Roland Garros final) can overwhelm the world No.1 and the slow court gives Wawrinka plenty of time to get the full swing he needs to really unleash his biggest weapon, that single-handed backhand.
What stands in his way (other than Djokovic): Consistency. The Swiss could bring his A game or he could dramatically flunk. You just never know. That’s part of the fun, and the angst, of being a Wawrinka fan.
Kei Nishikori Quarter-finalist 2015
Possible match stage: Quarter-final
Why he is a candidate: Since Wimbledon 2014, Djokovic has lost only two slam matches- the Roland Garros ’15 final to Wawrinka, and the 2014 US Open final to Kei Nishikori.
The 26 year old is an aggressive baseliner with great athleticism and shot-making skills in the mould of Djokovic and can take on the Serbian at his own game when at the baseline. Whoever can establish a comfortable rhythm first dictates their rallies which can be some of the best you will see on the tour.
If Nishikori is going to break through and fulfill his multi slam winning potential, then, at the age of 26, he needs to do it soon, and it might as well be at the Australian Open on the plexi-cushion which suits his game so well. If Nishikori catches fire the way he did in New York in 2014, and he has four matches to get his game in better shape than it was in his recent error-filled Brisbane loss to Tomic, then watching him go up against Djokovic could be one to savor.
What stands in his way (other than Djokovic): Nishikori may be able to compete with Djokovic in a baseline rally or get the better of him in a set, but he lacks the Serbian’s health and stamina, and by the time Nishikori makes their scheduled last eight match, he might have already run out of gas if his earlier matches have gone the distance.
Roger Federer Champion 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010 Runner-up 2009
Possible match stage: Final
Why he is a candidate: On the days Roger Federer can execute his aggressive game against Djokovic, he has swept him away, most recently at the 2015 ATP WTF.
While Federer has not been able to pull off his game plan versus Djokovic in a slam in their last three slam meetings since 2014, this time he could get the world No.1 in the semis where there would be less pressure and where Djokovic tends to struggle more than he does in finals.
If the Swiss can get through his previous five matches unscathed with no strenuous five setters and get off to a quick start against the Serb – and he will need to finish quick, too- he could find himself in his fourth slam final since his 2014 rejuvenation and for the first time without Novak Djokovic in the way of that elusive 18th slam.
What stands in his way (other than Djokovic): His own bad luck- last season Federer came into the draw with a Brisbane trophy only to get bitten by a bee on his hand and knocked out in the third round by Andreas Seppi.
Federer can also be prone to off days where he is a little flat and a little slow – such as the recent one he had versus Raonic in the Brisbane final- and at the age of 34 it can be harder for him to fight through them than when he was in his prime.
Andy Murray Runner-up 2010, 2011, 2013, 2015
Possible match stage: Final
Why he is a candidate: Andy Murray was one of only four players (Karlovic, Wawrinka and Federer were the others) to defeat Djokovic in 2015 when he beat him in the Montreal final, and as a four time runner up in Melbourne, his chances of making the final this season as the second seed are strong.
When Murray is serving well, striking his forehand with aggression and down the line, and is feeling positive then he can challenge him right down to the wire as he did in their epic 2012 semi-final.
What stands in his way (other than Djokovic): Murray already has the toughest of rivals when he faces Djokovic in Melbourne, but as we saw in last year’s final, Murray is often his own worst enemy when playing the five time champ. The Scot has to keep his cool when Djokovic’s intensity rises and the mind games really begin or he will be holding up his fifth Australian Open runners up plate.
Who do you think has the greatest chance of beating Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open? Share your views in the comments below.
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