Novak Djokovic (1) and Roger Federer (3) will contest a highly-anticipated Australian Open Semi-final this Thursday. The Tennis Review previews the match and predicts the winner.
This is their third match in Melbourne and Djokovic leads the series 2-1
Back when Federer won their first match in Melbourne in the 2007 last sixteen in straight sets, the Swiss was the dominant world No.1 and reigning champion while Djokovic was ranked 15 and had never been beyond the first round in his previous two visits down under.
A year later when they met again, Djokovic was a very different player having made his first Slam final at the US Open (lost to Federer), had beaten Federer on his way to the ’07 Canadian Masters title and had climbed to world No.3. On a surface on which his aggressive baseline game thrived, the Serbian beat Federer in straights on his way to his first slam title.
The two would not meet again on the Rod Laver Arena until 2011 when once again Djokovic, at the beginning of what would be one of his best seasons ever, defeated Federer without dropping a set.
Djokovic has never lost an Australian Open Semi or Final
No one in the Open era has won more Australian Opens than Djokovic and once he gets to the semis or final he does not lose. The only times he has lost since winning his maiden title down under have been in the quarter-finals to Andy Roddick in ’09, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in ’10 and to Stan Wawrinka in ’14.
But while Djokovic in the last four of the Australian Open is a daunting prospect for his rivals, Federer will still benefit more from meeting him there than in the final.
Slam championship matches, and finals in general, is where Djokovic has tended to play his best tennis since Wimbledon ’14, and if you are going to catch him out, then the matches before the final are your best bet.
Slam semis are also where Federer has played his best tennis at the Majors recently- check out his 2015 Wimbledon win over Murray and his 2015 US Open defeat of Stan Wawrinka. Without the extra pressure of a slam championship match in which he would be trying to win that elusive and historic 18th slam, Federer can relax and play the kind of free-flowing tennis he needs to produce on the big points.
This is the third consecutive slam they have met in
In the last two slams, Djokovic and Federer have met as the number one and two seeds.
Djokovic and Federer met in the Wimbledon and US Open finals with Djokovic winning each time in four sets, riding out Federer’s purple patches, and raising his own level when the Swiss’ dropped.
The US Open is where Federer had the best chance of a win- earning 23 break points- but he could only convert 4 of them, and made some critical errors on the attack on big points.
Both men had contrasting straight sets win to reach the last four
Federer was very impressive in his straight sets defeat of Berdych winning 83 % of the 69 % of first serve he delivered, claiming 24 of 29 points at the net, and striking 48 winners to 26 errors. The Swiss also took risks on the return and won 5 out of 10 break points.
Djokovic may not have been as impressive as Federer quality-wise, but he was impressive mentally in the way he handled a sub-par Kei Nishikori. The Japanese may have brought down Djokovic’s level (the Serbian made 27 errors to 22 winners), but the world No.1 still won in straights, raising his game as the match came to a close, against an opponent who was expected to trouble him.
Neither Federer’s or Djokovic’s quarter-final wins really reveals much about what will happen in their Semi, however. Federer matches up well with Berdych-he leads him 16-6 and has not lost to him since Dubai 2013- while Kei Nishikori never demanded Djokovic play his best.
In fact, Djokovic’s poor play up to now might benefit him in the long run- the Serbian has not been close to peaking, and can only get better. He will have to against Federer who will likely play the high quality tennis that will demand the Serbian raises his level.
Federer’s serve and attack will be going up against Djokovic’s return and aggressive baseline game
Playing his best on hard courts against Federer has been Djokovic’s biggest challenge the past year or two. While the world No.1 has some big wins on hard versus the Swiss since Federer committed to his current brand of attacking tennis in 2014 with victories in New York, Indian Wells (twice), and the ATP WTF, Federer has gotten 6 of his 7 wins over the last two seasons against Djokovic on hard- twice in Dubai, twice in Cincinnati, once at the ATP WTF, and once in Shanghai.
Against Djokovic on hard, Federer will mix things up, take charge of inside the court and the net, and win a lot of free points on his serve, not allowing Djokovic to get into any rhythm on his return or his ground game.
When Federer plays his best attacking tennis and wins the first set, he can beat Djokovic, and the Swiss has said he believes the Australian Open’s plexi-cushion surface allow him to produce that kind of tennis.
Going up against an opponent as in form as Federer on hard, and with his current self-belief, is going to be tough for Djokovic, but the Serbian will have one big advantage.
The night time conditions will favor Djokovic
Federer’s serving and his attacking game will be a little offset by the slower night time conditions that favor Djokovic so much, and those little things can make a big difference in these high stakes matches.
The Serbian loves the extra bit of time he gets to track down balls and hit a winning passing shot or force an error or to hit one of his penetrating ground-strokes in whichever direction he desires. Those qualities are his strengths and nothing brings those out more than a night time match on semis or finals night on Rod Laver.
Prediction
Federer will have to play great, will have to take charge early, and will have to be quick. The Swiss can do all that, but as Gilles Simon and Kei Nishikori brought down Djokovic’s level, Federer’s will make him raise it. Expect Djokovic to be focused, business like and to work his way into the Federer game, and into another Australian Open final.
Who do you think will win the Djokovic-Federer Australian Open semi-final clash? Let us know in the comments below.
thetennisreview 
Leave a comment