Novak Djokovic (1) and Andy Murray (2) will meet in the Australian Open final this weekend for the fourth time in the last five years. The Tennis Review asks if five time champ Novak Djokovic is going to beat four time runner up Murray once again or if the Scot will finally win that elusive title down under.
Head to head: Djokovic leads Murray 21-9 overall, and 4-0 in Melbourne. The world No.1 has beaten Murray in three finals (2011, 2013, 2015) and in one semi (2012).
Djokovic has been dominating Murray of late, losing to him just once in their last ten matches.
What’s at stake: The world’s Nos 1 and 2 have contrasting records in Melbourne- Djokovic holds the one for most titles won in the Open era (5) while Murray has the record for the most runner-up plates (4).
If Djokovic reaches six titles at the Australian Open, he would tie Roy Emerson for all time trophy wins down under, and would have 11 slams, tying him with Bjorn Borg and Rod Laver. That status would also put him firmly in the Greatest Ever debates.
If Murray wins, he would end any discussion about his world No.2 status, and would have three slams at three different events. Most importantly, though, he would end his record run of losing finals in Melbourne.
Form going into the final: Murray was pushed to five sets by Milos Raonic in his semi, and was a little lucky the in-form Raonic, whom he was 3-3 in their head to head with, got injured.
Prior to that match, Murray had been doing what he does best- getting the job done, beating Bernard Tomic in straights in the last sixteen and defeating David Ferrer in four in the last eight.
Djokovic was a little patchy on his way to his semi-final meeting against Roger Federer. The Serbian hit 100 errors in his match with Simon in the fourth round, and hit 27 errors to 22 winners in his three set quarter-final win over Kei Nishikori. However, neither player gave Djokovic much to work with, Simon’s lack of pace and consistency and Nishikori’s error-strewn performance drawing more errors from Djokovic than is usual.
Djokovic did not disappoint against Roger Federer, though, beating the third seed in four sets. The world No.1 really saved his best tennis for his most dangerous opponent, playing his best from the get-go, and his depth of shot and heavy hitting kept Federer pinned to the baseline and in his hands. The defending champion did have a little bit of luck in the fourth set when a lucky net cord went his way and gave him break point for 5-3, but if anyone has earned a bit of luck, it is the man who has has won the most Australian Open titles (2008, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015) in the Open era.
Who is the favorite?: There has probably never been a heavier favorite in grand slam history than Novak Djokovic in this weekend’s Australian Open final if you consider the tennis he showed versus Federer and his record versus Murray.
Andy Murray can win if: The Scot cannot beat Djokovic in a big match the way Federer or Wawrinka can with their naturally aggressive games. But he can change his game to be more aggressive and get the big wins such as he did at the US Open ’12 and Wimbledon ’13 when he defeated Djokovic for the titles, and to some extent the way he played versus the Serb in last year’s Montreal final.
The second seeded Scot has to have a high first serve percentage, be aggressive on his second, improve his return game which is one of the game’s best but has been inconsequential versus Djokovic in recent matches, play aggressively, attack with his forehand and hit behind the Serb. That is not Murray’s natural game, but if he tries to outhit Djokovic from the baseline and is too defensive, he basically plays into the Serb’s hands, gives him the rhythm he thrives on, and the world No.1 wrestles control and runs away with the match.
Murray has to do what he has done on only a few occasions in big matches- go out of his comfort zone, move inside the court when the chance arises, create those chances, and take time away from the player who is better at controlling it than anyone else. He also has to stay calm, channel his anger positively and not get wound up once Djokovic starts to work his way into his head like he did in last year’s final.
Being aggressive and staying positive- it does not always work for the Scot, even when he tries his best, but when it does, it pays dividends, and it is the only chance he has to put an end to his unfortunate record on the Rod Laver Arena and his rival’s much more impressive one.
Prediction: We know Murray can beat Djokovic, but there is no evidence to make us think it is going to happen this weekend. All the signs point to Djokovic to win, and to most likely do it in four sets.
Do you think Novak Djokovic will win a historic sixth Australian Open trophy or do you think Andy Murray is going to finally win the title? Let us know in the comments box below.
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