Roger Federer has been sorely missed from the tour this past couple of months. After undergoing knee surgery in February, the world No.3 had to pull out of Dubai, Rotterdam and Indian Wells, events where final finishes and trophies would have been likely. The Tennis Review previews Roger Federer’s return to the ATP Tour at the upcoming Miami Open.
Federer, originally expected to return in Monte Carlo, announced his Miami comeback with a surprising emoji tweet on March 17.
🔜🚙🛫🌎🛬🇺🇸🍊🌞🌴🐬🏝😎🎾👍 @MiamiOpen
— Roger Federer (@rogerfederer) March 17, 2016
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js There were some clues to an earlier return in Miami in the run-up to Federer’s emojiment such as the tweet below.
Rise and grind 🎾🌴😊 pic.twitter.com/6UOSrCANjZ
— Roger Federer (@rogerfederer) March 14, 2016
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
Miami has not been the most successful of the ATP 1000 tournaments for Roger Federer.
Federer has only won twice at Crandon Park- in 2005 and 2006. Compare that to his other hard court ATP 1000 title hauls such as his seven Cincinnati titles or his four Indian Wells trophies.
The venue is also where he suffered his first ever defeat to Rafa Nadal when in 2004 he lost to the then 17 year old 3-6, 3-6 in the third round.
Miami is also the scene of one of Federer’s rare outbursts. Check out the video below to see him smashing his racket in his 2009 semi-final versus Novak Djokovic.
Federer has been vulnerable to athletic, aggressive baseliners on the slow Crandon Park hard courts, suffering losses to Canas, Berdych, Djokovic, Nadal and Nishikori. He has also suffered two of his three (from a total of 24 matches played) losses to Andy Roddick there.
Miami, then, was, for some, a surprising choice for the scene of a Federer comeback. However Monte Carlo has never been a great hunting ground for Federer either, and Miami will be a great chance for him to get some match play in, and with relatively little pressure.
Federer has comeback from injury on two other occasions with great success.
In 2005, Federer suffered a foot injury and missed the season from September onwards until the WTF where he lost in a five set final to David Nalbandian. In 2006, he was soon back on track, winning the Australian Open at the start of the season.
Federer also suffered a back injury which contributed to his fall down the rankings to No.8 in the 2013 season. Once again, Federer came back strong, climbing back to No.2, challenging for the No.1 spot and reaching 3 slam finals in the 2014-2015 seasons.
Federer has a very exciting, but tough, draw
Federer has drawn Juan Martin del Potro in the second round. Federer leads the head to head 15-5, but he has suffered some big losses to the Argentine, none more notable than his 2009 US Open defeat to the then 20 year old.
del Potro is also coming back from injury (see our Juan Martin del Potro comeback fan survival guide) which makes their second round clash particularly intriguing.
If Federer gets past del Potro, his draw is projected like this:
3r: Jeremy Chardy (28), who beat Federer in his 2013 Rome opener when he came back to the tour from the birth of his twin sons. Fernando Verdasco might also lie in wait if he can upset Chardy. Verdasco would be a challenge- his game works well on slow hard courts and his high risk baseline game can catch fire any time.
4r: David Goffin (15). Federer matches up well to Goffin and leads him 4-0. Goffin has won sets from Federer, though, and recently had something of a break through win versus Wawrinka in Indian Wells, and made the semis there which will help his chances confidence wise.
QF: David Ferrer (8). Federer leads Ferrer 16-0. More dangerous would be Marin Cilic (11) who defeated him so impressively on his run to the 2014 US Open title.
SF: Novak Djokovic (1). Novak Djokovic, fresh off a run to a historic fifth Indian Wells title, on a slow court is a nightmare for Roger Federer. Realistically, Federer’s run would end here. The Swiss might benefit from someone upsetting the worrld No.1 such as Dominic Thiem, scheduled to meet Djokovic in the last 16, or Berdych, his last eight projected opponent.
Final: Andy Murray (2). Though Federer matches up well to Murray in the last few years, the slow courts would favor Murray who has won in Miami twice (2009, 2013) and trains there.
Rafa Nadal (5) could also await. That final would be a dream for the ATP- it’s recent revival in the 2015 Basel final was a huge talking point. Nadal’s recent return to good form in Indian Wells and the fact Federer would have to be playing great tennis to make the final would make this match one to watch.
Watch highlights of Roger Federer versus Juan Martin del Potro at the 2012 WTF in the video below.
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