The Miami Open semi-final features another match between the world No.1 and one of the game’s up-and-coming players making their mark on the ATP tour, David Goffin. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
While, in Novak Djokovic’s case, 2016 is ticking along much like 2015 did, things are quite different for David Goffin. The world no.15 has been climbing steadily up the rankings the past 2 seasons, winning ATP 250 events and reaching 500 finals, but in the last three weeks he has taken some further steps forward in his pro career by reaching the semi-finals of the North American Spring Swing ATP 1000 events in Indian Wells and Miami.
The next step would be an ATP 1000 final, and if he is to take it, he would have to stop Djokovic’s brutal pendulum swinging at its peak.
Goffin had a chance to become one of the few players to stop Djokovic the past few seasons the last time they met, back in the last sixteen of the 2015 Cincinnati Open. The Belgian led 3-0 in the final set only to lose the next six games as he suffered his third defeat in 3 meetings to the world No.1.
Watch highlights of Djokovic-Goffin at the 2015 Cincinnati Open below
Back then, however, Djokovic was struggling a little, well, compared to his standards anyway- he had suffered his only loss to Andy Murray in nine matches versus the Scot the week before in Montreal– and the upset was there for the taking.
This time things are a little different- Djokovic has lost just three matches since that escape act versus the Belgian– to Roger Federer in the Cincinnati final, to Federer in the WTF round robin stage, and to Feliciano Lopez in Dubai, and has collected no less than two slams, a WTF title, three ATP 1000s, an ATP 500, and an ATP 250 just to balance things out.
Mind you, things are a little different for Goffin right now, too. The world no.15 was a little infamous for letting leads slip back last Summer, but in Indian Wells a couple of weeks ago, he finally closed out a match he seemed intent on letting slip from his grasp when he defeated Stan Wawrinka 7-6 in the third after leading 5-3 in the second and third sets.
That win was a big one for Goffin. Wawrinka may not have had a great record in Indian Wells and he may be one of the streakiest slam winners, but he is a tough match player and he had a nice 3-0 head to head lead over the Belgian. In fact, before that Indian Wells match, Wawrinka had not dropped a single set to Goffin.
That Indian Wells win should give Goffin some confidence and the knowledge that letting a big lead slip against a top player is not the be all and end all- if you stay in the match things might turn your way again, and as happened to Goffin versus Wawrinka, your opponent might give you a helping hand by missing an easy overhead at 5-5 in the final set breaker.
The overhead is actually one of Djokovic’s few weaknesses that the Belgian can attempt to punish. Goffin has the tools to also exploit another weakness- the variety of stroke and shot to keep Djokovic guessing and keep the Serbian’s beloved and devastating rhythm at bay.
Of course, knowing what to do versus Djokovic and doing it are very different things because the world no.1- who is the first ever player of such status to lead the world number 2 by double the ranking points- does not let you do what you want to do. He has the serve and, as he said after his win over Raonic in Indian Wells, the return game to dictate how points will go. From the get-go, he will break down both your weaknesses and your strengths with his scarily precise baseline game, range of depth and spins, and the game’s best point construction that allows him to control the baseline and finish points at the net when the chance arises.
As Raonic found out in Indian Wells last week, and as Thiem discovered in this week’s Miami Open last sixteen, no one quite tests how far you’ve come than Djokovic, and no one quite points you in which direction you need to go.
If Goffin is to stand a chance, he will have to be keep Djokovic guessing on the serve and off the ground and take the initiative in rallies. Such is the tall order to beat the very best, but Goffin will not expect anything less, and as we have come to see of him these past weeks, he will give it everything he has, and then some.
Prediction: Djokovic should take this one in straight sets but it won’t be straightforward with Goffin coming into the match match fit, confident and with the kind of game that can unsettle the world No.1.
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