The Miami Open final features the world No.1 Novak Djokovic versus one of the few players to get the better of him in a big match the past few seasons, Kei Nishikori. The Tennis Review previews the action and predicts the winner.
Kei Nishikori is one of a handful of players who have inflicted big defeats on Novak Djokovic since the summer of 2014. Those names also include Stan Wawrinka, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray who have all managed to upset the no.1 in slams or ATP finals. Nishikori’ name belongs near the front of that list because he beat Djokovic in the semi-finals of a slam, the 2014 US Open, one of just two slam defeats Djokovic has suffered since Wimbledon 2014.
Watch highlights of Nishikori’s win over Djokovic in the US Open ’14 semis.
A year and a half on, Miami’s 6th seed Nishikori has lost five times to the tournament’s top seed, and has won just 2 sets. In their last encounter at this season’s Australian Open Nishikori went down in straights in a flurry of errors as he tried to blast Djokovic off court at a venue where no one has won more titles in the Open era than the Serb.
In New York 2014, Nishikori caught Djokovic the rustiest he had been for a while– the world No.1 had lost early in Cincinnati and Canada-and the highly-regarded Japanese managed to out-hit Djokovic from the baseline with his aggressive shot-making. Since that meeting, Djokovic has been much steadier and in-form when playing Nishikori, and with history on the line- Djokovic could both tie Andre Agassi’s record six Miami Open titles and lead the all-time ATP 1000 title leader-board with 28– he is not going to be much more focused and resilient than he will be tomorrow.
This, the pair’s ninth meeting, (Djokovic leads 6-2) is their first ATP final, which is not great news for Nishikori. Facing Djokovic in a final is a different beast altogether than facing him in the quarters or a semi. Djokovic has perfected the art of doing just what needs to be done until it really needs to get done, and done better than anyone else, in the finals. The Serbian did lose two finals last Summer- in Montreal and Cincinnati (historically, his weakest part of the season)- and he did lose the French Open final (where he has never won before), but put Djokovic on a surface he does well on- like slow hard courts-and at a venue where he has that winning feeling, and you are very likely to see him hold aloft the trophy. In fact, Djokovic has not lost an Indian Wells, Miami, Australian Open, Paris-Bercy, or Shanghai final since the 2009 Miami Open, and that, along with Indian Wells ’07, is the only time he has lost a final at any of those events.
Nishikori, meanwhile, will be appearing in only his second ever ATP 1000 final. In 2014 he led Rafael Nadal by a set and a break in the Madrid final before injury got the better of him. Injuries have continued to mess with Nishikori’s progress, as has his inability to produce his best tennis when he needs it most such as in the US Open 2014 final, or in his Australian Open last eight this season.
Reaching ATP 1000 finals is, however, where Kei Nishikori should be at this stage of his career. In fact, it could be argued he should be winning them. Challenging Djokovic for big titles is also where he should be, and where, as that US Open ’14 win shows, he has been.
The Japanese has the athletic baseline skills, explosive shot-making, and a great heart, as was witnessed in his quarter-final win over Gael Monfils in which he saved five match points, to go further than his career high 4 in the rankings (02.03.15) and the finals of Slams.
Nishikori may be back to the kind of form that has already taken him pretty far on the ATP tour. His semi-final win was particularly encouraging- he played exactly the steady baseline tennis needed to see off Kyrgios in straights. In that win, his second serve held up, too ( he won 17/24 points behind that shot), which will be vital if he wants to win his first Miami title versus Djokovic, the game’s best returner.
Prediction: Djokovic has beaten Dominic Thiem, Tomas Berdych, and David Goffin in his last three matches and all in straights. Playing at an event that favors his game, versus a player who is vulnerable to poor decision-making and fitness, the world No.1 should get this done in straights. Nishikori will likely be more patient than he was in Melbourne and play a decent match, but his level would have to rise considerably for him to pull off a career best performance and take the title tomorrow.
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