The Australian Open 2022 is about to get underway. The tournament has never had as much drama leading into it. In fact, no slam has. So, what stories are going to keep us watching once play gets going.
- Medvedev backs up his USO ’21 title.
Last year’s finalist is arguably the strongest hard court player currently in action. Medvedev recently won the US Open, his first slam, where he beat Novak Djokovic in straight sets. That was some nice revenge for Medvedev’s straight sets loss to the Serb in last year’s Melbourne final.
Medvedev has proven he can deliver in a slam final. His next task is to win his second slam straight after his first, a rare achievement in men’s pro tennis. Since the Open era began, only Rod Laver, who had won slams in the amateur era, has managed it.
The US Open-Australian Open back to back feat is also a rare one, though it has been more common in the last fifteen years. In the open era, only Ken Rosewall, Guillermo Vilas, Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Roger Federer (twice), and Novak Djokovic (three times) have accomplished it.
Medvedev has a good chance of joining this list. He is very consistent on hard courts. Since the Tokyo Olympics, he is QF-W-SF-W-R16-F-F. He also won the Davis Cup.
His AO draw.
The second seed has been given the following draw:
R1-H. Laaksonen
R2-N. Kyrgios/Qualifier
R3-U. Humbert (29)
R4-D. Schwartzman (13)
QF-A. Rublev (5)
SF- S. Tsitsipas (4)
F- N. Djokovic (1)
Chances- This is a testing draw. Kyrgios and all the hoop-la he brings. His ATP conqueror, Humbert likes fast low bouncing courts. Schwartzman is always gutsy and will test those legs. Things get easier in the second week- Medvedev has some nice h2hs and strong wins over those opponents. Medvedev is in danger of getting upset in week 1, though.
2. Sascha Zverev takes his debut slam.
Besides Medvedev, Zverev has the second most impressive recent hard court form. He won in Tokyo, Cincinnati and the World Tour finals and made the US Open semis.
Zverev has a fairly impressive but unencouraging slam history. He did make the US Open 2020 final, but he let a two sets and a break lead slip to Dominic Thiem. Most worryingly for his fans, while he has a slam final, three semis and three quarter finals on his record, he has never beaten a top ten player at a slam.
But, players overturn such histories when they finally win their first slam. Most recently, Stan Wawrinka is a good example of this. Zverev has shown us he has the hard court skills to win big and he has the potential to get those top ten wins.
Zverev’s draw:
R1-D. Altmaier
R2-F.Lopez/J. Millman
R3-L. Harris (30)
R4-D.Shapovalov (14)
QF- R. Nadal (6)
SF- N. Djokovic (1)
F- D. Medvedev (2)
Chances: This is a nice draw. Zverev could end up getting his first slam top ten win in the QF vs Nadal. Zverev is probably too good a server and too consistent to be upset by Harris or Shapovalov. It’s not even certain he would face Djokovic in the SF considering Djokovic’s visa situation. In the final, Zverev is Medvedev’s equal on these courts and he showed in their recent WTF final, which he won in straights, that he can handle the Russian in a big match and on his day can even overwhelm him. Medvedev was coming off his first slam win, but in this Australian Open, he might still be suffering that hangover while Zverev will be looking to get drunk on first time slam glory.
3. Novak Djokovic defends his title.
If Djokovic does play, this would seem the most likely result considering Djokovic’s all time great record at the Australian Open and the fact he still No.1.
However, Medvedev’s win at the US Open over the Serbian has shown the next in line that beating him at a slam and in a final can be done.
The Australian Open is quite different territory than the US Open for Djokovic, however. Djokovic has reached nine finals at both events, but in Melbourne he is 9-0 and in New York, 3-6.
Djokovic also has some points to prove. First, he has some business to settle with Medvedev should the top two seeds reach the final. Secondly, if he does receive a raucous crowd response to his appearance at the tournament, he will likely be energised and eager to silence them.
Still, while these are nice narratives, the reality of age and stronger competition might tell the true story. Djokovic is hitting 35 in 2022 and while his fitness is unparalleled, each day that passes is one which sees his body get a day older. Even worse for him, each day that passes sees Medvedev and Zverev grow more experienced and confident. When those trajectories cross, Djokovic can only be second best.
Djokovic’s draw–
R1- M. Kecmanovic
R2-Quaifier/T. Paul
R3-L. Sonego (25)
R4-C. Garin (16)
QF- M. Berrettini (7)
SF- A. Zverev (3)
F-D. Medvedev (2)
Chances- In the early rounds, this is a dream draw for Djokovic, though Sonego will give him a good test. Berrettini seems to be Djokovic’s slam regular, and while he will give Djokovic something to think about, his backhand weakness is too good a hunting ground for Djokovic. The last two rounds will be huge asks for the Serbian, but he is up to the task.
The biggest question here is whether or not he will get to start or play out the tournament.
4. Rafa Nadal gets #21.
Nadal won the Melbourne tournament coming back after six months away with a foot injury. That should give him some match play and confidence coming in.
It seems a tough ask for Nadal to win the tournament coming through the likes of Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Zverev and Djokovic.
Draws fall apart, however, and players underperform. Nadal just has to focus on his own game and draw and if things fall in place and the draw does fall apart, then he will get the opportunities. He’s shown he can do that plenty of times so if he’s on court and ready to play, it’s not that far fetched to imagine things could go his way.
Nadal’s draw-
R1-M. Giron
R2- T.Kokkinakis/ qualifier
R3-K.Khachanov
R4-H.Hurkacz (10)
QF-A. Zverev (3)
SF-N. Djokovic (1)
F-D.Medvedev (2)
Chances- This is a tough, tough draw. Nadal is not going to be able to navigate this unless he is 100% healthy. We know he’s 100% committed and will give it his best shot. In the second round, he faces Kokkinakis, which is probably going to be the feel good match of the tournament. Kokkinakis is in form and incredibly popular, and Nadal always goes down well in Oz.
Chances are Nadal goes out in the QF to Zverev.
5. Stefanos Tsitsipas repents and rebounds from crushing RG ’21 final loss
Tsitsipas was a set away from his first slam title at last year’s Roland Garros, but that is actually much further from glory than it looks with tennis’ unique scoring system and the ups and downs and twists and turns that tennis matches can take.
But a set away is closer than three, and Tsitsipas has proven that he can reach a slam final and get close to the title. He’s been out for a while, but his elbow injury seems healed and he’s back on court.
He won’t be one of the top favorites. He’s been a little too fragile at times and he’s vulnerable to an upset as we saw in his loss to Alcaraz at the US Open ’21. But a Tsitsipas win wouldn’t shock anyone and it might actually be a pleasant surprise for lovers of one handed backhands and quirky personalities.
Tsitsipas’ draw-
R1-M. Ymer
R2-A Ramos Vinolas/ S. Baez
R3- G. Dimitrov (26)
R4-R. Bautista-Agut (15)
QF-C. Ruud (8)
SF-D. Medvedev (2)
F- N. Djokovic (1)
Chances-
This is a good draw. Of course, it all depends on Tsitsipas’ mood. Anyone has a chance of knocking him out in the first week. His QF is the most generous in the draw and with Medvedev having a tough draw and Djokovic’s entry still up in the air, this could be Tsitsipas’ time to make another slam final.
Honorable mentions-
Men’s tennis hasn’t exactly been a cauldron of shock wins and new slam champions in recent times. But they have been happening- Thiem at the US Open ’20 and Medvedev at the US Open ’21. So, who would be likely to cause some upsets and get their first slam trophy this #AO22?
- FAA (9)- His career is gathering momentum all the time and he’s as talented as any young pro out there. A recent ATP Cup win will give him confidence and he has a nice draw with 5th seed Rublev in his round of sixteen.
- Cam Norrie (12)- As crazy as it sounds, stranger things have happened. Ask Gaudio and Johannson. Norrie showed us at Indian Wells last season that when the draw falls apart, he can hang around, pick up the pieces and make a nice trophy of it.
- Denis Shapovalov (14)- Charisma, shot-making, that X factor, Shapo just has it. He did look like he was starting to put it all together at the end of 2019, and he made the Wimbledon semis in 2021 and suffered a heartbreaking loss. He seems to have picked himself up and just won the ATP Cup. Let’s see what he can do.
- Andrey Ruvblev (5)- Once a master of consistency, Rublev has been struggling to put the wins together. Instead of breaking through his ATP 500 trophy winning, slam second week exit plateau, he’s gone backwards. One day he will put it together, and he likes a fast hard court. His fourth round match versus Felix Auger-Alliasime (9) will be one to watch.
- Ugo Humbert (29)- The uber dark horse. Fast courts are his thing.
Who I want to win: Denis Shapovalov– It would be great for tennis to have him winning a slam. He’s an exciting player, very passionate and likeable.
Who will win- Sascha Zverev. It seems unlikely, but he likes low bouncing hard courts, he’s been developing and improving, and it just feels like his time. I think he probably beats Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final.
Enjoy the Australian Open everyone! Who do you think wins the title? What story are you most interested in?
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