Life after the Big 2

Predictably, Novak Djokovic won the Australian Open 2023. I won’t bog you down with the numbers, stats, etc. Most likely, in a few months, we’ll see more history made when Rafa Nadal lifts up the RG trophy. Then Djokovic will win Wimbledon. And so it goes on. But this can’t continue forever, this Big 2 slam domination.

We’ll get some relief at the USO, at least. In the last few years, we’ve had Thiem (2020), Medvedev (2021) and Alcaraz (2022) winning in New York.

Of course, some fans can’t get enough of the Big 2 winning slams. But for those of us who are a little Big 2ed out, when can we expect some real change? And by change I mean not just someone different winning the USO, but 3 of 4 slams going to the next generations (and some of them are not so ‘next’ anymore).

1st, let’s look at the list of likely contenders. I’m going to group them.

Group 1: Medvedev, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Thiem.

Group 2: Alcaraz, Sinner, FAA, Ruud.

Group 1 have suffered a similar, but kinder, fate as the generation who came before them, led by Nishikori, Dimitrov and Raonic. Group 1 have fared better, with 2 slams between them and Medvedev reaching no.1.

However, it might already be too late to add more prizes and feats to their list. Alcaraz has already won a slam and has reached No.1 and shown he can beat both of the Big 2. And Sinner and co. don’t seem that bothered by group 1 and have racked up wins against them.

Let’s look at the different scenarios of life after big 2:

Alcaraz becomes the dominant player and takes over at the top. He has a Sampras 93-96 or Federer 04-07 type streak. This could happen now, with him dethroning the Big 2 or after they retire.

The chances of this taking place now seem low. Alcaraz seems to be suffering with injuries and has failed to build on his USO momentum or keep hold of his no.1 ranking. Most likely is that he’ll have the Sampras 91-92 and Djokovic 09-10 type sophomore slump before getting his potential ATG career going full strength.

Group 2 split the spoils. If Alcaraz’s injuries do impede him from becoming dominant, this could be the scenario taking place. Again, it seems a case of this happening later rather than sooner. Sinner is still showing issues with closing out big matches; FAA is inconsistent, and Ruud seems to lack the firepower to beat his mightier opponents.

As a group, they lack the bite that’s needed to take down the Big 2 at slams right now. However, with the big 2 out the way, it seems plausible that they could share the slams between them. They all have their own strengths and weaknesses, are a fairly balanced group, and crucially they all have that fatal flaw they can all take advantage of be it mental, physical or game wise.

Group 1 have a reboot and claim what’s theirs. They are, after all, only aged 25-27 (Thiem is 29, struggling to come back, and it’s over for him, probably). But the other players in this group are still in their prime, even if it’s at the tail end of it. Unfortunately for them, if we factor in the Big 2 still winning for another couple of seasons (or even longer), they would be nearer 30 by the time they got their chance. In that scenario, it’s more likely that the younger and by then more experienced Sinner and friends would be better placed to take over.

I know it’s a fashionable idea that players can extend their primes into their 30s, but we don’t know if that is true for non big 3 players as of yet. It shouldn’t be taken for granted that Medvedev and co. will experience such a second, or even, as in the case of the Big 2, third, wind.

When the Big 2 finally leave the stage, both groups 1 and 2 fight over the slams. Let’s accept that neither group 1 or group 2 are going to be healthy or in form enough to usurp the big 2 anytime soon. But, once the Big 2 step down, these two groups might end up fighting amongst themselves for the game’s big prizes.

This is the ideal narrative. Group 1 finally getting their chance, but now having to contend with group 2. And by this time, we might get a group 3 coming along.

So, what’s my final prediction? Djokovic will win AO and Wimbledon for a couple of more seasons. Nadal will win RG this year. Maybe not next year. The USO is anyone’s guess, but whoever wins it won’t necessarily build on it in the long term.

So, in 2025 we should start to see life after the Big 2. And it’ll be on the Big 2’s terms, naturally. And I think we’ll get the two groups fighting each other for the prizes. It’ll be unpredictable. It’ll be a mess.

I’m already counting down the days…