I am hesitating to get too excited about a takeover at the top of men’s tennis. We’ve had some false starts such as Thiem winning the USO ’20 and Medvedev winning the USO ’21.
Alcaraz has proven to be a much surer thing. He backed up his USO ’22 title with the YE No.1 and Wimbledon ’23.
But with Djokovic also holding two slams and about to take over No.1 and winning their last match, it’s still his era. Alcaraz would need to defend his USO title to really say we’re entering Carlitos time now.
Djokovic’s win over him in Cincy adds some doubt as to whether Alcaraz is going to do just that.
If Alcaraz did win, though, the start of the Carlitos era would be undeniable – he’d have three of the last five slams, which starts to sound like dominance to me.
It’s hard to speculate much on what will happen before we see the draw, so I’ll update this when that’s out.
Okay-the draw is out. Here’s a breakdown of Djokovic and Alcaraz’s paths.
Alcaraz
r1 Koepfer
r2 Harris/Pella
r3 Evans (23)
r4 Norrie (16)
QF Sinner (6)
SF Medvedev (3)
Upset potential? Sinner could do it. He and Alcaraz had a great match last year. These two are tied at 3-3 in the h2h and this match will be one to watch.
Otherwise, it’s a pretty comfortable route to the final.
Djokovic
r1 Muller
r2 Zapatta Mirelles/ Quinn
r3 Djere (32)
r4 Auger-Aliassime (15)
QF Tsitsipas (7)
SF Rune (4) (Ruud, 5 lurking).
Upset potential? None. This is as good as a draw as it gets, particularly with Rune being injured.
Auger-Aliassime is there, but he has not been in good form at all. If he can somehow resurrect his career in the next two weeks, then that would be a match to enjoy.
Other contenders
The past few years it’s felt like a real waste of time speculating on this. And with Alcaraz and Djokovic being so far ahead of the rest, it still does. But, seeing as I’m doing this, here we go:
Sinner. He just won Montreal. He’s very much due a breakthrough at slams. He did make the Wimbledon semis, but it seemed like one step forward, two steps back.
He also quite enjoys beating Alcaraz. Goes into his shell a bit with Djokovic, though. And he’d likely have to get through both to win the tournament.
Draw: Faces Alcaraz in the quarters.
Has some interesting players in his section- RG quarterfinalist Etcheverry, Wawrinka, and Nishioaka. Potential second round match versus Sonego. Quite a hard draw for a top 8 seed.
Rune. He’s struggling with a back injury right now, but who knows what he can do. He’s a big match player and very talented.
Draw: Potential round 2 with Lehecka will be tough. Bublik in round 3 could be fascinating if Bublik is in the mood. In the fourth round, he could face Tommy Paul, the 14th seed.
Davidovich Fokina (21) is lurking, too. No tennis fan will complain if we get a repeat of their Wimbledon epic.
Ruud. He played great in the RG final and got precisely zero sets to show for it. His form going in isn’t great, but it wasn’t at RG, either. He’s made three of the last six slam finals and he shows up on clay and hard when there’s something on the line.
I doubt he’d win if he had to go through, say, Rune, Djokovic and Alcaraz. But I’d like to see it happen. Ruud is a great role model.
Draw: Seeded five, he has Rune in the quarters. That should be a lot of fun.
Wolf or Zhang in round 2 could be challenging. Wolf has the home crowd and likes playing at home and Zhang gave Ruud a tough time in Paris.
Korda in round 3 could be fascinating. And Tiafoe in round 4. These matches could all potentially be upsets. Ruud’s progress will be very intriguing and for the top seeds, his draw is arguably the toughest.
Medvedev. It’s funny that he’s the last player who came to my mind when making this list. Absolutely he could win. But Alcaraz seems to bug him.
Draw: Medvedev could face Coric in round 3 and his recent Canada conqueror de Minaur in round 4. Both are tough competitors and if he’s having one of his volatile days, it could be an early exit.
Tsitsipas. Hard to rule out the guy who’s made the other hard court slam final this year. Can be imperial on his day. He’s not playing with papa in his corner anymore, either. Less distraction and more focus should do him good. Though he doesn’t really ever bring it to New York.
Draw: Raonic in round 1 and potentially Eubanks, his Wimbledon upsetter, in round 4 is not the kindest draw for the ever vulnerable Greek.
Zverev. Oh dear. I hope not. But he is a great hard courter.
Draw: Could face Murray or Dimitrov in r3.
FAA. Has fallen off the cliff. But he’s capable of great things.
Draw: Could go out to Macdonald in round 1, could upset Djokovic in round 4. Who knows.
Fritz. We’ve seen crazier things. And it’s his home court.
Draw: Potentially Kecmanovic in round 2 and Musetti in round 4. The draw Gods were not kind to the home hope.
Well, as you can see from my last few picks, I’m beginning to stretch things now.
See you for my update once the draw is out.
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