US Open Men’s round 3 Upset potential

While my first round upset predictions went quite well, my second round ones were dismal, though I did get the biggest one of all, Zhang over Ruud.

So, here goes with round 3:

Arnaldi over Norrie.

I have been predicting Norrie since round 1. He’s just always ripe for an upset. Arnaldi just beat Fils in five sets while Norrie has cruised through.

Dimitrov over Zverev

Dimitrov is in good enough form to trounce Murray losing just 8 games. Zverev’s career revival is getting there but I fancy Dimitrov here.

Baez over Medvedev

Crazy as it sounds, there is upset potential here. Baez has been on the up all season and just won Winstom Salem and handled Coric in straights in round 1 in NYC. Medvedev is extremely volatile and if Baez wants this, he can probably have it.

Jarry over de Minaur

de Minaur is playing really well, but Jarry has been having a good year and just has more oomph.

Mannarino over Tiafoe

Tiafoe is getting the star treatment in New York and Mannarino will be his first big test under that kind of pressure. Mannarino is a very different player to the usual ATP type. He likes junk, slices, and can be very steady from the baseline. He could potentially really rattle Tiafoe. Let’s see how Big Foe deals with the circus.

Davidovich Fokina over Paul

My match of the third round. Davidovich Fokina reminds me of Nalbandian – a mercurial talent with a mysterious brain. Paul is someone you can’t help cheering for. Dependable, polite and hard-working.

Davidovich Fokina (or ADF as he’ll now be called) should win this. He is the more explosive of the two. But Paul plays the way he does – high percentages- for a reason. It wins matches. Still, ADF at his best beats Paul at his best, and this being round 3 of a slam, we assume both are playing pretty well.

Mensik over Fritz

This one is the biggest reach. Mensik is only 17 and there is a huge gulf in experience here. Nevertheless, Fritz has fallen off a little bit the last several months. Mensik must be feeling pretty invincible right now after qualifying and winning five matches in a row to make round 3.

He might not have beaten big names in the main draw – Barrere and Droguet – but in the first round of qualifying he beat none other than Fabio Fognini. So, he knows he can pull the upset, and he has the game to expose Fritz’s limitations, which if Fritz is distracted, could be lethal.