Sinner’s Australian Open Win Is the Tide Turning?

Jannik’s Sinner’s win at the Australian Open means that players not named Nadal or Djokovic have won 3 of the last 6 Majors.

2022 USO- Alcaraz

2023 AO – Djokovic

2023 RG – Djokovic

2023 Wim – Alcaraz

2023 USO – Djokovic

2024 AO – Sinner.

Before that 2022 Alcaraz win, Djokovic and Nadal had split 17 of the previous 19 slams between them (Nadal x 6; Djokovic x 9) with Thiem and Medvedev winning the USO ’20 and ’21 titles respectively.

Thiem’s win at the USO ’20 didn’t signify much. That slam win had been some time coming for him and his drop off from the top soon after shows he was nearing the end of his prime.

Medvedev’s 2021 USO victory did seem to potentially portend more. However, he just hasn’t been able to follow through and now aged 27 it’s unlikely he’s going to lead any eras.

Alcaraz and Sinner are quite different cases. Alcaraz has been breaking records – the youngest No.1 and YE No.1 the most significant- and dethroned Djokovic at Wimbledon. The USO has always been the Major where players could breakthrough more easily coming at the end of the season and the surface the game’s most neutral. But Wimbledon has always been dominated by the greats and beating Djokovic there will have really dented the Serbian’s hopes to extend his reign at the top of the game into his late 30s.

Losing at the Australian Open to Sinner will also have damaged his confidence. The two slams his game suits the most are now no longer his. However, his versatility and adaptability mean he’ll still have chances to defend at RG and the USO.

Alcaraz is more likely to upset him at RG than Sinner. Nadal will be there, too, but we can’t say much about his chances right now.

Other contenders at RG to dethrone Djokovic are:

Sinner

Rune (he’s lost form but he can regain it and he’s not afraid of Djokovic)

Ruud (such a choice might seem crazy considering his recent form but players can regain form and he’s still young and very experienced at RG).

Djokovic could easily still win RG, Wim and the USO. His loss at the AO doesn’t really mean much until we see how he comes back from it. So, it’s still to early to say any tides have turned. But we’re getting closer each slam. Let’s see if Alcaraz and Sinner can gain further ground, sandy in Paris, soft in London, in the coming months.