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Wimbledon men’s second round review
For many the highlight of the round was Sinner beating Berretini in four. It was certainly a qualify encounter but the result was never really in doubt. Still, the potential champ going up against a former finalist in round 2 is headline making stuff and the center court crowd certainly got value for money.
Monfils defeating Wawrinka in straights was also a crowd pleaser and added some oomph to the second round.
It’s telling when the most significant thing I have to write about the second round is FAA’s collapse versus Kokkinakis from two sets to love and match points up.
The next most notable thing, and the saddest, is Hurkacz retiring injured match point down to Fils. The Pole hurt his knee diving for a ball and we were once again reminded how cruel sport can be.
Those two were both favorites and dark horses for the title and their absence from the draw is a downer for fans.
FAA going down when he seemed to be putting things back together again is another disappointment. He really is slipping into could’ve been a contender category. There is of course still time and of course no one will be more let down by his loss than the man himself. When he does win a slam, it’ll be some story to tell with all the ups and downs he’s had in his relatively short career.
Casper Ruud went out to blonde bombshell Fognini, losing in four. Ruud, the eighth seed, was never expected to contend for the title and his loss is only really interesting because Fognini came back from the career dead to do it and had made himself look even more handsome than usual with his recently bleached hairdo.
A few outside shots at the title scraped through:
Tommy Paul, the Queens champ, beat qualifier Virtanen, fighting back from 1-2 down. Paul is the 12th seed and just won a big grass title but his winning the trophy would still be a real shock.
Shelton avoided a possible upset versus qualifier Harris, also coming back from 1-2 down.
Dimitrov also beat Zhang in five.
Shapovalov defeated Altmaier. It’s a bit of a push to call the Canadian an outside shot, but he is a former semi-finalist and so talented.
Struff, who I should have included in my dark horse list as he is both highly dangerous and unseeded, defeated Zhang in four. He’ll face Medvedev next and an upset could be on the cards.
Two of my dark horses did make it through to round 3 – Bublik and Humbert. Bublik beating the highly talented Cazaux in straights is impressive and suggests a real maturity and growth on his part. He’ll face Paul in the next round, a classic encounter of consistency over raw flair.
Humbert also beat a dangerous rival in his straight sets dismissal of BVDZ. He’ll face former quarter finalist Nakashima in round 3. That match is in no way a certain win and is similar to the Paul vs Bublik encounter pitching a level headed sound player over one who’s more suited for grass. The problem is the grass nowadays is more suited to the consistent, more sensible players.
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Wimbledon first round men’s review
The first round isn’t exactly over with rain suspending play, but the second round does start today so it’s time to review.
The biggest upset so far has been Rublev losing to the Argentine Comesana in four sets. Rublev was not going to win the title and had a quite challenging draw but a first round upset is a shock, and to Comesana, too, who’d never won an ATP main draw match.
Another surprise was Korda losing in five to lucky loser Mpetschi Perricard. Something is really up with Korda for him to go out like that after his recent good form. Perricard does have an enormous serve, which helps on grass, but Korda should have had the experience and skills to win a five setter and he had plenty of chances to get ahead during the match, failing to convert 11 break points. Unfortunately for him, Perricard had nothing to lose and plenty of desire.
2021 semifinalist Shapovalov upset 19th seed Jarry in straights. That SF run seems a while ago now and the Canadian has slumped since then so this win is very encouraging for his fans.
Monfils beat Mannarino, the 22nd seed, to set up an old timers match vs Wawrinka in round 2. That is going to be very entertaining and a much talked about encounter. The match won’t produce the tournament champion but it will bring a lot of energy and excitement to the first week. I expect it to be on court 2 at least, likely the last match.
Sonego upset 31st seed Navone in straights. Not much to say on this as this was always a fairly likely upset with Sonego being such a quality player and Navone not really suited to grass.
A few players narrowly made it into round 2- Shelton, Bublik, Draper, Tiafoe and Humbert. I called Draper and Humbert dark horses (Bublik, too) so I’m glad they survived. I’d say Shelton and Tiafoe look very vulnerable but maybe the early test will kick start them. It should also be said that Tiafoe and Humbert faced two emerging talents in Arnaldi and Shevchenko and did well to survive their tough openers with such fight. As for Bublik, he fought back from 0-2 sets down which means he can be bothered and is here to play, which is very good news.
The first round set up some very intriguing second round matches:
Monfils vs Wawrinka
Ruud vs Fognini
Sonego vs RBA
Bublik vs Cazaux
Humbert vs BVDZ
Tiafoe vs Coric
My personal favorite, Zhang vs Struff
Harris vs Shelton (I expect Harris to get the upset here)
Sinner vs Berretini
Such a wealth of attractive second round matches seem even more so with the draw being more open than it has for a long while. Although the favorites look very likely to make the last four, those being the top four seeds, there are a lot of dangerous players about and we could get a surprising second week.
Perhaps the biggest story of the first round is a match we didn’t see-Murray vs Machac. The two time champion had to withdraw with injury. The Scot tried his absolute best to end his career in the style he earned, a huge send off on center court. He’ll still get it, mind, and knowing him, we could very well see him try and play next year, and the one after that, and so on. That’ll bring a lot of pleasure to many fans and also to the tournament. Murray is Wimbledon royalty and just having him around adds some gravitas to an already very serious and entertaining business.
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Wimbledon draw Preview.
Top quarter:
This quarter is headed by top seed Jannik Sinner who is one of the favorites for the title.
The Italian has an interesting draw. Hanfmann in the first round will be a decent work out.
Berretinni or Fucsovics in round 2 will also ask him some questions. Neither men are what they were but Berretini knows his way around a grass court and Fucsovics is very aggressive and powerful and won’t give Sinner much to work with from the back of the court.
In the quarters, Sinner is projected to face Medvedev who he has a nice head to head lead over in recent times.
Sinner is more likely to face Struff or Zhang who could upset Medvedev in round 3. And if they don’t do the job, they’ll warm him up for an upset at the hands of Dimitrov.
Second half of the top.
This is led by defending champion Alcaraz. He’s had a very nice draw. In the last eight, he’s seeded to face Ruud, who likely won’t make it that far. The Norwegian has Bublik in his quarter as well as Paul and one of those two should get the better of him.
This part of the draw is by far the quietest. Arnaldi or Tiafoe could liven things up if one of them meets the Alcaraz in round 3.
Humbert in round 4 could also be a challenge as he’s got some grass court prowess.
But one of them are serious threats, though he must of course take them seriously.
Bottom half of the draw:
Top:
Zverev is the fourth seed and projected to make the semis. His last 32 match with Draper will be a huge story and there is some upset potential. Draper is still an unproven force at slams, though.
Fritz, the Eastbourne champ, looms in the last sixteen. Now, that really could be dangerous for the German.
In the last eight, Rublev could await, and he’s consistent enough to likely make it. But he’ll need to get past Musetti whose game favors grass courts more than his.
Korda the twentieth seed looks a good bet to upset Tsitsipas and challenge Musetti or Rublev for a place in the last 8.
The bottom of the bottom half.
Djokovic, the second seed, heads this section.
The draw Gods could not have been more accommodating for rounds 1 and 2. Etcheverry or Nardi in round 3 will be interesting but I doubt either will be able to see a potential win through.
In the last 16, he could face Rune, who played really well at last year’s event. Rune has been a bit of a non factor in recent times, however.
Hurkacz is seeded to meet Djokovic in the last eight.
If FAA, the only real dark horse in the draw, can get past di Minaur in the last 32, he’ll really give the Pole something to mull over before that potential QF.
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Wimbledon men’s dark horses
Tennis from a fan's point of view
By dark horse, I mean a player who has a genuine chance at winning the title and is ranked outside of the top sixteen seeds.
Dark horses rarely win men’s slams nowadays and even without the big 3 dominating, it still feels like the winner will come from the favorites I looked at in this post.
Other than FAA, the players I’ve picked are really quite long shots and not strong dark horse contenders. However, they are the best we have for now.
1. FAA. Seeded 17, he’s been getting back into form lately. He’s got some experience going deep at slams (USO SF) and has played some big matches at slams going the distance. His big serve and aggressive game also work well on grass, helping him reach the Wimbledon QF in 2021 and two Stuttgart finals.
2. Lorenzo Musetti. The Italian is seeded 25th. He’s just made the Queen’s final and is one of the game’s biggest talents with great touch and flair. He has had some big matches in his career but is prone to letting winning leads slip by him. Personally, I don’t think he has a great chance at winning the title due to this.
3. Jack Draper. The 28th seed won the title in Stuttgart and beat Alcaraz at Queens. His big serve and aggressive game make him a strong contender to go deep. But actually win? He’s not done anything at the higher end of the game (slams, 1000s) and that inexperience could hinder him. But he also has nothing to lose and doesn’t have anything to prove.
4. Alexander Bublik. The unseeded 2023 Halle champ has some nice grass court credentials. He’s a very talented player however he cannot be relied upon to deliver on his promise. I seriously doubt he’d win, but he has all the tools.
What do you think about these guys’ chances? Give your opinion in the comments. And if you want to chat tennis or writing, email me at christian@thetennisreview.com.
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Wimbledon men – who will win?
Carlos Alcaraz
The Roland Garros champ and defending champion must be feeling good. He did lose to Jack Draper at Queens, but Draper is one of the most dangerous players on faster, low bouncing courts. Alcaraz was also due a little letdown after the high he felt in Paris.
Jannik Sinner
I’d place him as more of a favorite than Alcaraz but have put Carlos at the top because he’s the defending champ and in slam winning mode.
Sinner’s also feeling good as the world No.1, Australian Open champ and he just won Halle. In the final there, he beat Hurkacz in two tiebreaks. Hurkacz is a big server and so edging him in a close match prepares Sinner well to win his first title at Wimbledon. The way Sinner is hitting the ball so flat and close to the lines is pretty awe-inspiring and he’s easily hitting better than anyone else right now.
Sascha Zverev.
I doubt he’ll win. Twice in slam finals he’s lost from leading two sets to love. Of course, leading 2-1 doesn’t guarantee you a win and a few players have messed up their first slams and gone on to be multiple slam champs, such as Murray and Lendl. But the circumstances don’t really favor Zverev right now and he is more or less the finished deal. Both Sinner and Alcaraz have proven to be much stronger mentally so if he meets them in the final, they’d be the heavy favorites.
Zverev has that serve though and he’s been around a long time now. He’ll make the second week for sure.
Hubert Hurkacz
Hubert has all the tools. But when he breaks down, he doesn’t seem to have a plan B. Unless your serve is firing in career best form, you need a plan B to win Wimbledon.
Novak Djokovic
I’m not sure he’s even playing. If he’s recovered after his knee surgery then he’s in with a shot. But it’s still early days since tearing his knee and I expect he’ll enter but have to retire mid match in week 1.
Still, you never know with him and injuries don’t necessarily prevent you from winning slams. You have to consider him as a potential champ with his history. Though he has lost his edge this season injuries or not. Champs can rediscover such edges however and he’s done it time and time again. Really, the only time we can discount him is when he’s not in slam draws.
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Sinner’s Australian Open Win Is the Tide Turning?
Jannik’s Sinner’s win at the Australian Open means that players not named Nadal or Djokovic have won 3 of the last 6 Majors.
2022 USO- Alcaraz
2023 AO – Djokovic
2023 RG – Djokovic
2023 Wim – Alcaraz
2023 USO – Djokovic
2024 AO – Sinner.
Thiem’s win at the USO ’20 didn’t signify much. That slam win had been some time coming for him and his drop off from the top soon after shows he was nearing the end of his prime.
Medvedev’s 2021 USO victory did seem to potentially portend more. However, he just hasn’t been able to follow through and now aged 27 it’s unlikely he’s going to lead any eras.
Alcaraz and Sinner are quite different cases. Alcaraz has been breaking records – the youngest No.1 and YE No.1 the most significant- and dethroned Djokovic at Wimbledon. The USO has always been the Major where players could breakthrough more easily coming at the end of the season and the surface the game’s most neutral. But Wimbledon has always been dominated by the greats and beating Djokovic there will have really dented the Serbian’s hopes to extend his reign at the top of the game into his late 30s.
Losing at the Australian Open to Sinner will also have damaged his confidence. The two slams his game suits the most are now no longer his. However, his versatility and adaptability mean he’ll still have chances to defend at RG and the USO.
Alcaraz is more likely to upset him at RG than Sinner. Nadal will be there, too, but we can’t say much about his chances right now.
Other contenders at RG to dethrone Djokovic are:
Sinner
Rune (he’s lost form but he can regain it and he’s not afraid of Djokovic)
Ruud (such a choice might seem crazy considering his recent form but players can regain form and he’s still young and very experienced at RG).
Djokovic could easily still win RG, Wim and the USO. His loss at the AO doesn’t really mean much until we see how he comes back from it. So, it’s still to early to say any tides have turned. But we’re getting closer each slam. Let’s see if Alcaraz and Sinner can gain further ground, sandy in Paris, soft in London, in the coming months.
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Sinner defeats Djokovic Australian Open SF 2024
The key to Sinner’s 6-1, 6-2, 6-7 (6), 6-3 win over Djokovic in the AO semis was the serve – against the best returner in the game, the Italian faced zero break points.
The fourth seed’s two victories at the end of last season (WTF; Davis Cup) seem to have given him a taste for usurping the Serb. This time he did it on the top seed’s favorite stage.
Sinner now goes into his first ever slam final in championship winning form and with momentum. Last season, he won his first Masters title, reached the WTF final and his first slam semi. This was the next step, a win over Djokovic to reach a Major final, and those long legs of his obliged.
Djokovic seemed keen to give him a helping hand, too. The defending champion was subdued and error prone in the first two sets. His opponent’s confidence and coolness seemed to unsettle him. Windy conditions and the relative unknown of a day time match up on the Rod Laver Arena no doubt added to the weirdness of it all. This was his court, after all. Sinner, however, was hell bent on making himself at home.
The top seed improved his serve in the third set and resisted the Italian as best as he could, taking the third set on a close tiebreaker. A slight wobble from Sinner was expected. His only previous slam semi-final fell flat at the hands of his opponent in straights just seven months ago. There were other demonic memories to quell, too; the two sets to love lead he held over Djokovic that Wimbledon quarter-final was one he’d recovered from but such defeats can rear their ugly heads at will.
Not this time, though. Sinner knew he had to deliver. Aged 22 and on the rise, if he didn’t do this now, the chance of him doing it another big match like this diminished. The time, against an opponent aged 36, really had come and Sinner was ready. There was to be no two sets to love down fightback versus a nervous, angst-ridden next gen for the ten time champion. Just as there would be no break points.
None. Not a single one.
Sinner’s semi-final upset accomplished, next up is a debut major final, against Medvedev or Zverev, to tackle. The fourth seeded Italian seems to know what he needs to do in these challenging milestones. Doing so seems the logical next step, but a defeat wouldn’t be a surprise. Sometimes too much too soon can be bad for you, and Sinner has had his fill in recent months. Still, hunger that his slender frame doesn’t attest to seems to be driving him. All those waiting for this kind of NextGen breakthrough will be bracing themselves for the ride.
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Australian Open 2024 Preview
Today I woke up and remembered there’s a Major starting tomorrow.
Not a good sign from a supposed tennis fan. Anyway, I will write a quick preview, I thought.
My lack of enthusiasm is mainly down to the sheer predictability of it all. All that time spent on analysing the draw, hyping up prospects only for Djokovic to take the whole thing.
That’s my preview there, for the men’s. But if Djokovic gets knocked out, I will write a post on who’s next in line.
The women’s is far more interesting.
Rybakina is in good form, winning Brisbane and reaching the Adelaide quarters. A proneness to injuries, though, makes me reluctant to tip her.
Sabalenka is unlikely to defend her title. That’s a big task to ask of someone who since last AO has been very up and down, as is her nature. Who knows – she might find stability in Melbourne and enjoy the familiarity.
Swiatek will go home early, I feel. The United Cup was a softball of a warm up for her.
Gauff will leave early, too. Players rarely follow up slams winning the next one.
So, who am I predicting to win?
I think it will be either:
- Rybakina
- Vondrousova
- Samsonova
- Ostapenko
and I’m going to go for Vondy.
She will like the conditions, which are the most similar to Wimbledon in terms of low bounce. She’s a proven slam winner. She’s also very cool and unbothered by the tennis circus.
I can see Samsonova winning. She’s been hyped for a while and the WTA springs suprise winners all the time.
As for Ostapenko, she just won Adelaide and over the last year she’s been keen to remind us why she’s a slam champ. She is not afraid of anyone, has supreme confidence and loves to compete.
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Djokovic Defeats Medvedev to Win US Open
Before the tournament, I posted how I hoped an Alcaraz takeover was on the cards.
As it turned out on Sunday, my worst nightmare occurred- Djokovic extended his era.
The second seed and today’s world No.1 beat Medvedev 6-3, 7-6, 6-3.
Djokovic took a comfortable first set 6-3. A stroll to the title looked inevitable. Medvedev was playing poorly. His back was practically rubbing against the advertising stands on the return, inviting Djokovic to serve out wide on the deuce side and come in for the easy put away. Even worse, in rallies, Medvedev was just hitting straight back to his rival, mostly cross court. The Medvedev of the semi-final was going down the lines, changing direction of the ball. Not this one, however. It was as if Djokovic had programmed him himself.
The second set lasted 1 hour and 45 minutes. Medvedev was going down the line now. He was chasing down every ball. Serving well. Djokovic seemed to be tiring, which is not even worth mentioning.
Medvedev had set point but Djokovic went up a gear, coming to the net where he seemed to know exactly what to do while his rival floundered, hitting balls at Djokovic’s waiting racket rather than find the empty space.
In the third set, Djokovic broke for 3-2 only to be broken back in the next game. The fightback was short-lived – Djokovic broke back and went on to take the match.
Medvedev said after the match he’d been too stubborn. His coach even lost his temper, shouting at him when he got broke in the third.
Djokovic now has 24 slams, and four at the USO. The Djokovic era isn’t ending anytime soon. He’s strong from the back and his down the line shots are heavy. He can change direction at exactly the right moment. He’s consistent, to put it mildly. His serve is both powerful and well placed. He can volley. His point construction is unrivalled. He has experience and is not afraid of gamesmanship, Most of all, he doesn’t fear winning.
It’s unfortunate for his rivals. And for those of us who were hoping the takeover had arrived.
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Coco Gauff Wins the US Open
Coco Gauff must have been listening to the audio book of Brad Gilbert’s Winning Ugly in her sleep ever since she hired him.
Because her final versus Sabalenka was one of the ugliest women’s slam final anyone ever did see.
Today, I had to watch the Hingis Vs Graf RG final replay to detox.
Gauff, herself, said in her press interview it wasn’t the way she wants to play, either. The American had to be a backboard as she set about assisting Sabalenka in her implosion, the incumbent no.1 hitting 47 errors over 3 sets.
Some of those errors were down to Gauff’s tracking talents, but many of them were outright fluffs from the Sabalenka racket.
Neither woman played well in the first set, but the Belorussian played the least worse as her attacking game and Gauff’s nerves worked in her favor.
Once Gauff got the break early in the second, the rot set in. Gauff improved, being consistent and athletic, and Sabalenka crumbled in a rubble of shrieks and errors. One eyesore rally after another came our way, and I for one was glad when it was over.
Matters did improve in the final few games. Sabalenka fought back early in the third when Gauff got the break. She even kept the ball in play. Gauff had to be a bit more creative and come forward and force the play herself.
An MTO added some more spice. Sabalenka called it and had a pleasant thigh massage as Gauff had time to think about what she was on the verge of.
Gauff came through, her thoughts clear and confident, winning the final couple of games to take her first slam title and join an elite list of teenage champions.
Ugly or not, a win is a win, and that’s the point of Gilbert’s book – you don’t have to be playing brilliant tennis to get the victory. Gauff has the right game for that because she can run and run and run and she can keep the ball in play, and even add a little spice to it. Sabalenka can play ugly but she can’t really win ugly because her game is so high risk.
Gauff doesn’t have a game that makes you wax lyrical about its power or beauty. It’s a variation of the Wozniacki game. It’s admirable and clever and lures you in. How did she do that, you ask, as her more powerful opponent drops yet another game.
Personally, it’s not for me. I will tune it, though. It’s always interesting to watch such players bring down a Swiatek, a Sabalenka or a Rybakina. Those 3 players have such clear master plans, their patterns of play predictable but devastating. The Gauffs of the world complicate things, put bugs in the code.
It may not be pretty. It may, in fact, be very ugly. It does win slams, all the same.
Tennis from a fan's point of view
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