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Top seed Novak Djokovic will take on Andy Murray (6) in the Australian Open 2015 men’s final in Melbourne. This will be the fourth meeting between the two at Melbourne park with Djokovic having won all the previous three, including two finals in 2011 and 2013.

Djokovic leads the head to head 15-8 and won all of their four encounters in 2014. He also leads their hard court head to head 13-6.

The two players were close friends as juniors and only a week separates them in age (Murray is the older one). There is a wealth of difference between them, however, in achievements. Djokovic has seven slams to Murray’s two, has won 4 WTF’s to Murray’s 0, and has spent 131 weeks at No. 1 while Murray has never reached the sport’s pinnacle.

Djokovic, though, has played a major factor in Murray’s greatest achievements, his two slam wins (Wimbledon ’12, U.S Open ’13)- the Scot beat the Serbian in the final both times.

Murray’s victories in those slam finals will be small comfort to him in tomorrow’s final, however. Djokovic has beaten Murray in two Australian Open finals, and both times convincingly. The plexi-cushion suits Dkokovic’s game in the same way that grass and the fast U.S Open courts suit Murray’s.

Djokovic has all the time he needs to set up his aggressive ground-strokes and track down his opponent’s shots on the medium slow hard courts of the Rod Laver Arena. Murray also enjoys the same advantage- he and Djokovic resort to similar styles of play in much of their matches- but Djokovic’s aggressive baseline game is better, more natural, than Murray’s, and his superior stamina has made the difference in their previous Melbourne encounters.

Djokovic also has the better backhand, that shot being both men’s biggest weapon, with more angle and variety, and the depth to keep Murray back and make him play defense rather than displaying his famed touch and variety.

Murray has been able to display plenty of that touch and variety the last fortnight. Against Dimitrov, Kyrgios and Berdych, his talents came to the fore. But Djokovic will give him a very different ball to any of them, and as Murray found in the 2011 final, which he lost 4-6, 2-6, 3-6, there is little, if Djokovic is on form, he can do about it.

Djokovic, however, was not on form in his semi-final with Wawrinka. In the fourth set he did not hit a single winner. However, a match like that before the final could play into Djokovic’s hands. Most champions have to get through one bad match in a slam, and Djokovic has had his now. He will have had plenty to think about and work on, and he may come into the final even more focused than usual.

Murray, meanwhile, has not really been tested mentally and physically the way Djokovic was by Wawrinka. Murray’s draw opened up for him with the defeats of Nadal and Federer. He had to face Dimitrov, emerging from a six month slump and crumbling in the fourth set after leading 5-2, an overly aggressive Kyrgios and the mentally questionable Berdych.

For these two champions, though, it will come down to whoever is better on the day, to hell with history. Both men can beat each other in slam finals, ( they are tied at 2-2), both can play brilliantly on plexicushion, and both will be motivated to win.

The fact that Djokovic has beaten Murray more times in Melbourne, has four titles there to Murray’s zero, a commanding head to head, and on his day is a better player makes it hard to look beyond him as a favorite for a record breaking fifth Australian Open title.

Prediction: Djokovic to win in four sets.

The Australian Open men’s semi-finals for 2015 will be more remembered for their drama rather than their quality of play as things got ugly down under.

Andy Murray’s four set win over Tomas Berdych was more noteworthy for what was said on and off the court than the play that happened on it. Murray’s former assistant coach Danny Vallverdu’s sitting in Berdych’s box as his head coach, Berdych’s words at the first set changeover, Murray’s subsequent words to the umpire (‘he said something to me’) and Kim Sear’s words in the player’s box were reported more enthiusiastically than the match’s events.

None of the words meant anything either when it came down to it. Murray said the press were making a big deal out of Vallervudu’s coaching of Berdych, Berdych did not say anything to Murray but congratulated himself on his tough first set win, and no one quite knows what Sears said.

But all those ‘events’ trumped what really mattered in the semi-final- the progress of one player to the Australian Open 2015 final.

Perhaps those headlines dominated the media because the match itself was so far from the best seen in a slam semi-final.

After a tight first set, won 7-6 by Berdych, the Czech’s play dropped to such a level he lost the second set 0-6. Though he did try to make a match of it in the third and fourth, the Czech was not allowed by Murray to impose his clean hitting big game, and to some respects, he did not let himself either, so tight was he at the prospect of making his first slam final since Wimbledon 2010.

It was a shame for the Czech that he was not able to build on the momentum he was bringing into the match. His defeat over Nadal in the quarters was impressive, but he could not reproduce that same level of clean hitting against an in form Murray. The |Scot robbed him off his rhythm and forced him to go for too much. Murray also served well, returned well and believed in himself as he won 6-7, 6-0, 6-3, 7-5.

In the second semi-final, played between top seed Novak Djokovic and defending champion Stan Wawrinka, the combined 118 errors to 69 winners ratio speaks volumes for the quality of play.

Both men played their worst match of the tournament in the third part of a trilogy which had provided the event with its two most recent best matches in 2013 and 2014.

Djokovic could have won it in four, breaking as he did at the start of the fourth leading two sets to one. Unable to find his game, he hit 0 winners and 14 errors, Djokovic lost the set as Wawrinka played less badly, hitting 11 winners to 11 errors.

The fifth set looked promising as Wawrinka fought for his service game, but Djokovic broke and then ran away with the final set 6-0. Wawrinka admitted he was mentally spent in the fifth, and Djokovic’s greater ability to win ugly proved to be the deciding factor.

 

Novak Djokovic versus Stan Wawrinka at the Australian Open Part three takes place tomorrow, and unlike many third parts of trilogies, it won’t disappointment.

Djokovic leads their head to head with a commanding 16-3 lead, but that means little after their recent Australian Open encounters which have been two of the best contests in recent years as Wawrinka’s variety and flair go up against Djokovic’s athletic baseline aggression.

In the first installment of this rivalry down under, their 2013 fourth round match, Wawrinka stunned Djokovic to take a two sets to one lead before being beaten 10-12 in the fifth. That match kickstarted Wawrinka’s career at the highest levels of the game and a year later he beat Djokovic 9-7 in the fifth in their quarter-final, on his way to winning his maiden slam.

This year, another tight match looks probable as both players enter the semi-final playing well. Wawrinka was impressive beating Kei Nishikori in straight sets in his quarter final match, and Djokovic was also so in his three set win over Raonic, a performance he claimed was his best so far at this year’s tournament.

With both men in form, and fresh after straightforward runs to the last four, this match could be another one that goes all the way.

The deciding factor in the match will be Wawrinka’s game and how well he can execute his net game against the target loving Serbian. Wawrinka will also have to be mentally tough. Few are better than Djokovic at exploiting an opponent’s bad day, winning when not at their best or turning around matches that look lost.  If Wawrinka, who is only recently emerging from a post-first slam slump, has a dip in form, Djokovic will win this in three.

The Australian Open, however, is clearly bringing out the best in Wawrinka, whose single handed backhand and net skills thrive on the time he has at his disposal to set them up on these medium paced hard court. Also, memories of his victory last year, one few predicted, should ensure he puts in a semi-final performance worthy of his status of defending champion.

Djokovic, though, is a four time Australian Open winner, and the plexi-cushion courts in Melbourne are tailor made for his mix of defense and offense, and with his improved serve and more aggressive mindset, factors improved since a year ago, the Serbian is the favorite to take the match.

Prediction: Djokovic to win in five.

Tomas Berdych’s defeat of Rafael Nadal was the shock of the quarter finals, and the best performance in a round full of great ones. The Czech, who said he would ignore his losing record to the Spaniard and treat the match just like it was their first ever one, won 6-2, 6-0, 7-6, a scoreline which to many was unthinkable.

And for understandable reasons- Nadal had beaten Berdych 17 times in a row, was playing good tennis, and was the heavy favorite. Berdych, though, with new coach in tow, had not dropped a set en route to the last eight, and had been playing some of the cleanest hitting tennis of his career, which for the game’s cleanest ball striker, is most impressive.

The Czech hit 46 winners and only 21 errors against Nadal. He was mentally tough, too. When Nadal tried to stage a comeback in the third set, Berdych stayed calm and closed him out in the tiebreak.

His semi-final opponent, Andy Murray, put in a patchier performance against Grigor Dimitrov. The Scot came back from 0-3 in the first set, dominated the early stages of the match, only to lose focus in the second set, before knuckling down in the third. The Scot then fell 2-5 behind in the fourth before fighting back, his consistency and smarts forcing his opponent to break down and fail to win another game.

On the other side of the draw, Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic put in commanding performances as they headed into their third consecutive match in Melbourne.

Djokovic claimed his three set win over Milos Raonic, one of the form players of the early season, was his best one yet. Meanwhile, Wawrinka put an end to the run of his U.S Open conqueror, Kei Nishikori, in straight sets.

Day eight of the Australian Open sees the final four fourth round matches completed. The tennis review previews and predicts what will happen at the year’s first Grand Slam tomorrow.

Kei Nishikori (5) Vs David Ferrer (9)

Head to head: 6-3

Kei Nishikori is a favorite at the event and for good reasons- he has the momentum going his way, and the talent, skills, experience and support (Michael Chang is his coach) to go all the way in Melbourne.

Nishikori is the complete package and it is a case of when he wins his first slam, not if.

Ferrer matches up well with Nishikori, but has a history of letting leads slip against him. He did though have a comprehensive win over him in Melbourne in 2013.

Nishikori has been getting off to slow starts at this Australian Open, and Ferrer will capitalize on that. However, as has happened in many of their clashes, Nishikori’s greater aggression and shot-making skills will make the difference.

Prediction: Nishikori to win in four.

Novak Djokovic (1) Vs Gilles Muller

Head to head: 0-0

Djokovic has said he won’t underestimate Muller, and he has good reason. The world No. 1 is vulnerable to big servers, and few come bigger than Muller. The lefty serve will also be on the attack and will not give Djokovic any rhythm on the baseline.

Muller will give Djokovic a target at the net, though, and if his first serve is at all off, Djokovic will be waiting with the game’s best return to take advantage.

Djokovic cruised through his first couple of rounds and was tested by Verdasco in the third round, while  Muller has upset Bautista-Agut and Isner on his way to the fourth round. That should mean Muller will be ready for the challenge, but only one man, Wawrinka, has been able to beat Djokovic in Melbourne over the last five years, and the Serbian has too many weapons, and too much confidence on plexi-cushion to be anything but rattled by Muller.

Prediction: Djokovic to win in straight sets.

Milos Raonic (8) Vs Feliciano Lopez (12)

Head to head: 2-2

Raonic made great improvements in the off season, losing 12 pounds, and it certainly showed in his footwork in  Brisbane and his three wins so far in Melbourne.

The Canadian keeps improving and has the momentum to reach his projected seeded position in the draw against top seeded Novak Djokovic in the quarter-finals.

Lopez, who is playing some of his best tennis at the age of 33 and at a career high ranking of 14, will be a tricky opponent.

The Spaniard upset Raonic at last year’s Canadian Open in three tough sets.

The match will most likely be decided on tiebreaks and Raonic, who has the stronger serve, should have an edge. This match will probably come down to the tiniest of margins, and Raonic, who is the more complete player, particularly at the back of the court, an area he is much improved in the last year, should prevail over a best of five sets match.

Prediction: Raonic to win in four close sets.

Stan Wawrinka (4) Vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez

Head to head: Wawrinka leads 4-3.

At Roland Garros last year. Wawrinka’s slump began with his defeat to Garcia-Lopez in the first round. Now, just emerging from that slump late last season at the WTF, Wawrinka has the form to avenge that defeat.

Garcia-Lopez is through to only his second fourth round of a Major in 42 starts. The Spaniard has wins over Murray and Nadal on hard courts and has enough experience and hard court skills to trouble the Swiss.

However, Wawrinka thrives on plexi-cushion and has too much variety and experience for the 31 year old unseeded player.

Prediction: Wawrinka to win in five, his first test of the season.

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