Tomorrow could be the day the ATP World Tour Finals get going after some underwhelming matches the first couple of days. The tennis review previews the two matches on offer and gives its predictions.
Afternoon match: Roger Federer versus Kei Nishikori
This is, for many fans, the match of the round robin stage. These two have met 4 times and are 2-2. Two of those matches have been on hard courts with both men earning a win apiece. Nishikori’s win, though, was the most recent- this season in Miami- while Federer’s came all the way back in 2011.
In that Miami win, Nishikori showcased the aggressive clean ball striking from the back of the court which causes Federer problems. Nishikori, is, quite simply, the heir to the Djokovic throne and when he gets the rhythm and the balls he likes, he can be, as he proved in his runs to the Madrid and US Open finals this season, unstoppable.
Federer, of course, can stop him. And where better than on the indoor courts in the conditions he loves? Well, perhaps not the indoor courts of the ATP World Tour Finals 2014. The courts are slow and reportedly high bouncing for indoor ones, and that will give Nishikori an advantage as he looks for the kind of time that will allow him to get set up for his strokes and start moving Federer from side to side until the chance to move forward or hit a winner into the open court arises.
Federer will have to make sure Nishikori does not get those chances. A high percentage of highly effective serving, some deft approach shots of the forehand, and the net and forecourt play that has seen him rise from No. 8 to No. 2 in the rankings will help that. Federer also needs to get things done quickly. If Nishikori works his way into the match and gets Federer on the defense, and a lot of balls to his backhand, then Nishikori, whose two wins over Federer have been in three sets, has a great chance to get his third win.
Prediction: Federer has been in top form these last few weeks (Titles in Shanghai and Basel), was convincing in his win over Raonic and knows he needs to win every match to keep his No.1 dreams alive. He will come in with a clear game plan – to attack- and get the match won in straight sets, one close one, one easy.
Evening match: Murray Vs Raonic.
This is a restart button match for both these men at this event after straightforward losses in their previous matches. Raonic leads Murray 3-1 and he won their last match in Indian Wells in three sets.
Since then, Raonic has gone from strength to strength while Murray struggled until his title win in Shenzen in September. Murray comes into the event the more winning player of the two- Raonic has the Tokyo and Paris finals to his credit- but his display against Nishikori, the only top tenner he has faced other than David Ferrer since his return to winning ways, showed he was still out of sorts when it comes to facing the game’s top ranked players. Murray could not take advantage of a first serve percentage of 49 percent from Nishikori, which for a player who only 18 months back was considered as the game’s second best returner, is a statistic indicative of his decline.
Raonic is unlikely to serve at less than that, and his play on the slow indoor courts of Paris a couple of weeks a shows how far his all round game has come this season. Considering Raonic has beaten Federer and Berdych in his last event, and has a winning record over Murray on hard courts, it is hard not to see him taking this match.
Prediction: Raonic to win in straights.
Commentary by Christian Deverille
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